By Alhambra Investment Partners
The Smaller Economy Getting Smaller Still
Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month in April, meaning with January’s flat reading that new orders for this important segment of consumer “demand” has been consistently shrinking in all of 2015 so far. New orders for capital goods have been negative year-over-year in all four months. With the pace of shipments just now starting to decelerate, it would appear that without a surge in new orders very soon economic production will have to adjust much lower in the near future.
Continue reading The Smaller Economy…
Key Market Report – Currencies
The June Dollar gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday following the release of inflation data on Friday and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, warning that a rate hike is still in the cards for 2015. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May’s low, the reaction high crossing at 98.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 97.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 98.69. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.89. Second support is May’s low crossing at 93.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-March-rally crossing at 92.90.
Continue reading Currencies
Fundamentally, the gold stock rally was labeled a “bounce only” because it was just another item rising anti-USD in an ‘inflation trade’ revival. Right along with Oil, Copper and the outliers like REE, Lithium, Uranium, etc.
If we are disinterested in commodities (I am and have been), then we were cautious on the precious metals for this reason.
Like it or not, we are in a process of eliminating the inflationist gold bugs, and a lot of ‘inflation trade’ promoters while we’re at it. I guess that is me being “sanctimonious” as one blog described me recently. I prefer ‘overly judgmental’, but whatever.
Moving on, one indicator of the coming problem in the gold sector was the tried and true HUI-Gold ratio (HUI-GLD used here, while NFTRH used a very similar HUI-Gold chart to note the early caution signal on May 17).
By Alhambra Investment Partners
Two Years Later: Gold Was Right About The ‘Dollar’ As Economists Should Have Been Far Less Giddy About It All
A little over two years ago, in the middle of April 2013, there was a gold crash that came seemingly out of nowhere. Worse, for gold investors anyway, that crash was repeated just a few months later. Where gold had stood just shy of $1,800 an ounce at the start of QE3, those cascades had brought the metal price down to just $1,200. For many, especially orthodox economists, it heralded the end of the “fear trade” and meant, unambiguously, that the recovery had finally at long last arrived.
As Felix Salmon wrote at Reuters in an article titled, The Fear Bubble Bursts:
Continue reading Gold Was Right…
By Steve Saville
More on BitGold, the company with a great new product and an over-hyped stock
During the week since I first wrote about BitGold (XAU.V) the stock price has been on a wild ride. It went from C$4.14 up to C$8.00, down to C$4.50, up to C$6.50, and ended the 25th May trading session at C$5.60. At C$5.60/share and with a new (post-acquisition) share count of around 50M, the company has a market cap of roughly C$280M (US$230M). The product appears to be excellent from the perspective of customers, but is the business really worth US$230M?
Let me ask the above question in a different way. With its current fee structure and likely user base it’s possible that BitGold will never be consistently profitable and cash-flow positive. If a business does not have a good chance of ever being consistently profitable or cash-flow positive, what’s it worth?
Continue reading More on Bitgold…
Let’s remember all of those who have moved on while packing in the grilled meat products and alcoholic refreshments this weekend. Let’s remember the heroic, the less obviously heroic and all the other loved ones who have passed on.
Grampy… WWII hero
Dad… Korean War and a lifetime of positively touching others
Jonathan, who was my financial market Godfather and became the very first NFTRH subscriber… after imploring me not to do it.
Brad, who was once upon a time an important and influential business associate and friend who later followed his passion to become a premium Tequila maker before dying much too young.
And everyone else, both military and non…
War always sucks…
Happy Memorial Day
By Michael Ashton
Here is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments.
- CPI Day! Exciting. The y/y for core will “drop off” +0.20% m/m from last yr, so to get core to 1.9% y/y takes +0.29 m/m this yr.
- Consensus looks for a downtick in core to 1.7% y/y (rounding down) instead of the rounded-up 1.8% (actually 1.754%) last mo.
- oohoooooo! Core +0.3% m/m. y/y stays at 1.8%. Checking rounding.
- +0.256% m/m on core, so the 0.3% is mostly shock value. But y/y goes to 1.81%, no round-assist needed.
- Headline was in line with expectations, -0.2% y/y. Big sigh of relief from dealers holding TIPS inventory left from the auction.
- Core ex-shelter was +0.24%, biggest rise since Jan 2013. That’s important.
- This really helps my speaking engagement next mo – a debate between pro & con inflation positions at Global Fixed Income Institute.
- More analysis coming. But Excel really hates it when you focus on another program while a big sheet is calculating…
- It’s still core services doing all the heavy lifting. Core goods was -0.2% y/y (unch) while core services rose to 2.5% y/y.
- Core services has been 2.4%-2.5% since August.
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent rose to 2.77% y/y, highest since…well, a long time.
- Thanks Excel for giving me my data back. As I said, OER was 2.77%, up from 2.69%. Primary rents frll to 3.47% from 3.53%.
- Housing as a whole went to 2.20% y/y from 1.93%, which is huge. Some of that was household energy but ex-energy shelter was 2.67 vs 2.56
- Or housing ex-shelter, ex-energy was 1.14% from 0.67%. Seems I am drilling a bit deep but getting housing right is very important.
- Medical Care +2.91% from 2.46%. Big jump, but mostly repaying the inexplicable dip from Q1. Lot of this is new O’care seasonality.
- Median is a bit of a wildcard this month. Looks like median category will be OER (South Urban), so it will depend on seasonal adj.
- But best guess for median has been 0.2% for a while. Underlying inflation is and has been 2.0%-2.4% since 2011.
- And reminder: it’s median that matters. Core will continue to converge upwards to it, (and I think median will go higher.)
- None of this changes the Fed. They’re not going to hike rates for a long while. Growth is too weak and that’s all they care about.
- For all the noise about the dual mandate, the Fed acts as if it only has one mandate: employment (which they can’t do anything about).
- The next few monthly core figures to drop off are 0.23%, 0.14%, 0.10%, and 0.05%.
- So, if we keep printing 0.22% on core, on the day of the Sep FOMC meeting core CPI will be 2.2% y/y, putting core PCE basically at tgt.
- I think this is why FOMC doves have been musing about “symmetrical misses” and letting infl scoot a little higher.
- US #Inflation mkt pricing: 2015 1.1%;2016 1.8%;then 1.8%, 2.0%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, & 2025:2.4%.
- For the record, that is the highest m/m print in core CPI since January 2008. It hasn’t printed a pure 0.3% or above since 2006.
There is no doubt that this is a stronger inflation print than the market expected. Although the 0.3% print was due to rounding (the first such print, though, since January 2013), the month/month core increase hasn’t been above 0.26% since January 2008 and it has been nearly a decade since 0.3% prints weren’t an oddity (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Continue reading Post-CPI
By Steve Saville
Comparing Rates of Money Pumping
This post is a modified excerpt from a recent TSI commentary.
The following table shows the amount of monetary inflation in a number of different countries/regions. Specifically, the table shows the amount by which the money supplies of Australia, China, the Euro-Zone (EZ), Hong Kong, Japan, the UK and the US have grown over the past year, the past 2 years and the past 4 years. In those cases where it was easy for me to do the calculation I’ve used TMS (True Money Supply) as the monetary aggregate, but in other cases I’ve used M1 or M2. In China’s case I show results for both M1 and M2, because due to the lack of detail provided by the People’s Bank of China I’m not sure which of these measures is closest to TMS.
Here’s some information that can be gleaned from the above table:
Continue reading Rates of Money Pumping
By Chris Ciovacco
Transportation Average – A Big Concern For Stock Bulls?
Weakness In Transports In 2015
If you follow the markets, you have probably heard about the “non-confirmation” warning being flashed by the fact the Dow Transportation Average has failed to post a new high simultaneously with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Dow Theory Is Useful
We have written about Dow Theory many times in the past; a July 2014 article explains the economic rationale behind the theory. We believe Dow Theory is useful, but it is one of many sources of information.
Continue reading Transports – Big Concern?
By Tom McClellan
Crude Oil Leads Bond Yields
May 22, 2015
What if I told you I could draw you a picture ahead of time for what the future of interest rate movements would look like? That would be a cool trick, no doubt. But that’s exactly what crude oil prices can do for us.
Continue reading Crude Leads Bond Yields