US Should Recognize 1st Genocide of 20th Century

By Biiwii

It is disgraceful.  Every time Bob Dole would introduce legislation that would have America simply acknowledge the atrocity that was the 20th Century’s first genocide (of the Christian Armenians by the Muslim Turks) it would get shot down.  Bob kept trying and other voices cried out but America – across generations and political parties – just continues to put its fingers in its ears and go ‘la la la la la… I can’t HEAR you… la la la la la…’

US should recognize Armenian genocide  –Boston Globe

The sheer scale of the murders in Turkey was so overwhelming that Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin later devised the word “genocide” to grapple with the carnage.

The genocide was used by Hitler as a blueprint for the Holocaust.  How many mass exterminations followed in the 20th century?  Each time a coordinated mass murder of thousands, even millions of human beings is perpetrated the world looks on in horror.  It is in that horror, with an almost hard to believe possible quality to it, that the hope lies.  Because if the world were to take the position of Turkey (not only denying the events, but reprogramming its whole society by teaching school children revised versions of history) or disgustingly enough, the US, then the quote widely attributed to Hitler still applies today (in official circles, at least):  “Who speaks today of the extermination of the Armenians?”

Among the many public events, memorial services, and awareness campaigns that mark the genocide of 1915, Pope Francis gave a spirited speech during a Mass earlier this month to commemorate the scars on Armenia’s national memory. “It seems that the human family has refused to learn from its mistakes,” Francis said, decrying “the complicit silence of others who simply stand by.” Most notably, and not for the first time during his papacy, Francis called the events of 1915 what they are: genocide. The address sparked outrage from the Turkish government, whose foreign minister fired off tweets lambasting the Pope’s message as “unacceptable” and “out of touch with both historical facts and legal basis.” But on April 15, the European Parliament joined Vatican City and 22 other nations in recognizing the Armenian genocide and called upon Turkey to do the same.

I am ashamed of the US Federal Government for standing on the side of wrong for political reasons.  Turkey is considered an ally in a troubled region.  Meanwhile the Pope and 22 other countries (and the EU) have acknowledged the genocide because if you don’t have some grounding in truth you are lost.  That applies to whole societies.

I thoughtlessly put up a guest post the other day with the word ‘Genocide’ in its title, as applied to currencies.  That was me, who grew up with a coffee table book right there in the open showing the graphic photos of slaughtered women and children taken and verified by a German military officer.  If that could happen to me, a person of Armenian decent, desensitized by being a 3rd generation American, what will history end up saying; dustbin or front burner?

I felt ashamed after the fact in realizing that I allowed that post’s title to be published (it’s still there, as I’ll not revise history) just before the commemoration of 100 years of genocidal action and subsequent denial by a rotten to the core Turkish government.  Rotten to the core?  That may apply to America’s federal government as well because you sleep with evil you pay a price in some manner, over time.

In 1915, the Turkish government began mass extermination of around 1.5 million men (targeting the intellectuals and business people), women and children.  It happened, period. Turkey’s government is thus evil, because denial and sanitizing of truth (false narratives) are elements in human evil.

Today the supposed greatest country on earth (how many times over can America destroy the planet with its out of control weapons programs?) officially (the people though, are smarter) lays with this evil.  Not to veer this post too far astray, but I once read a book about collective human evil and its premise was that like Hitler’s Germany, whole societies can become catastrophically destructive under the influence of lies and denial.

So beyond the question of the Armenians, think about this little cocktail… Mix 2 parts optically guided weapons (clean and sanitary) with 1 part revisionist history and 1 part new narrative born of revisionist history.  Add essence of nuclear threat, stir, don’t shake, and enjoy.  What other kinds of stories does America tell itself that it is too subjective to see from the inside out?

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]


Why Gold Mining Co’s Should Never Hedge

By Steve Saville

Why Gold Mining Companies Should Never Hedge

A hedging program can make sense for a gold producer, but hedging is something that — with a small number of exceptions — gold producers should never do. This is not because there will always be a direct cost or an opportunity cost associated with any hedging program, it’s because gold producers are so damn bad at it.

Continue reading Why Gold Mining Co’s Should Never Hedge

One Concern Eased

By Tom McClellan

Volume Data Have Eased One Concern

A-D and UV-DV Lines for NYSE
April 24, 2015

We focus a lot on the Advance-Decline (A-D) data, which is the basis for the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index plus other indicators.  But we also like to watch what the Up Volume (UV) and Down Volume (DV) numbers are doing.

Continue reading One Concern Eased

Chinese Stock Market: Trade Like a Pro in 1 Min!

By Biiwii

I don’t know how literal this is, but by way of SoberLook’s excellent daily email service of macro signposts, here is a look at a street vendor quick-teaching kids how to read trend lines and trade like Buffett.  I don’t think Buffett uses trend lines but I do think this is a shoe shine boy moment for the Chinese stock market, to one degree or another.


Copper & Copper Miners, S/T Divergence

By Biiwii

A strange situation in Copper sees the metal sagging and the miners popping.  The metal has been on a rally that we have been tracking all year (easy now, there is huge long-term resistance above, not shown on this daily chart) but has sagged for the last month.  The miners on the other hand, have risen over that period.



Conclusion?  I don’t have one.  Just pointing out a weird situation.  Maybe Copper was a barometer to the present USD weakness and now the various touts, pumpers and carnival barkers across the commodity spectrum are doing their thing.  It’s easier to buy the miners after all, than the metal.  That stuff is heavy!  :-)

Whither (Wither?) Profits

By Michael Ashton

Surprisingly, markets are treading water here. The dollar, interest rates, and stocks are all oscillating in a narrow range. In some ways, this is surprising. It does not shock me that interest rates are fairly boring right now, with the 10-year yield trading almost exclusively within 25bps of 2% since November. Market participants are divided between those who see the Fed’s cessation of QE as indicative that prices should decline to fair market-clearing levels (that is, higher yields) and those who see weakness economically both domestically and abroad. There is room for confusion here.

I am similarly not terribly shocked that the dollar is consolidating after a long run, especially when part of that run was fueled by the popular delusion that the Federal Reserve had suddenly become extremely hawkish and would preemptively hike rates before convincing signs of inflation arose. I am hard-pressed to think of a time when the Fed pre-emptively did anything, but that was the popular belief in any event. Now that it is becoming clear that a hike in rates in June is about as likely as the possibility that the Easter Bunny will deliver eggs at the same time, dollar traders who were relying on widening interest rate differentials are pausing to take stock of the situation. I will say that it certainly seems plausible to me that the dollar’s rally will continue for at least a little while, due to the volatility coming our way as the Greek drama plays out, but the buck is not an automatic buy either. Money growth in the U.S. continues to outpace money growth in most other economies (see chart, source Bloomberg), although it is a much closer thing these days.

allems Continue reading Whither (Wither?) Profits

Uranium Stocks Pop

By Biiwii

The Uranium ETF is following premier U miner Cameco higher today.  We have been keeping a casual watch on the U’s in NFTRH as one of the ‘outlier’ commodities that can bounce in a corrective USD atmosphere.

The problem I have with this bounce however, is that there was a write up on MarketWatch getting hysterically bullish about Uranium and Japan’s recovery and China’s new nuke build out and whatever other standard pump inputs could be included.  To make it worse, the article quoted the man who in his own mind invented the investment cases for both Lithium and Rare Earth Elements; junior gold stocks too!  He’s been trumpeting these things throughout their bear markets.

So I left it alone.  If the U bounce is real, there will be plenty of time to get on it.


Why Not Short the Market? This…

By Biiwii

There are good arguments for the both the ‘upside acceleration and blow off’ and ‘correction’ scenarios, short-term in the markets.  This creepy looking chart of junk bonds argues for the former, with its creepy looking bullish pattern.  Junk bonds are a speculative barometer.


Disclosure:  I am short SPY (no leverage; straight short with limited leash), but net long.  Longest position of all… cash.

Gold is Not a Play on “CPI Inflation”

By Steve Saville

I have never been in the camp that exclaims “buy gold because the US is headed for hyperinflation!”. Instead, at every step along the way since the inauguration of the TSI web site in 2000 my view has been that the probability of the US experiencing hyperinflation within the next 2 years — on matters such as this there is no point trying to look ahead more than 2 years — is close to zero. That is still my view. In other words, I think that the US has a roughly 0% probability of experiencing hyperinflation within the next 2 years. Furthermore, at no time over the past 15 years have I suggested being ‘long’ gold due to the prospect of a rapid rise in the CPI. This is partly because at no time during this period, including the present, has a rapid rise in the CPI seemed like a high-probability intermediate-term outcome, but it is mainly because gold has never been and is never likely to be a play on “CPI inflation”.

Gold is a play on the economic weakness caused by bad policy and on declining confidence in the banking establishment (led by the Fed in the US)← [edit: as NFTRH steadfastly continues to remind subscribers. We obviously agree 100% with Saville’s view]. That’s why cyclical gold bull markets are invariably born of banking/financial crisis and/or recession, and why a cyclical gold bull market is more likely to begin amidst rising deflation fear than rising inflation fear.

There are times when the declining economic/monetary confidence that boosts the investment demand for gold is linked to expectations of a rapid increase in “price inflation”, but it certainly doesn’t have to be. For example, the entire run-up in the gold price from its 2001 bottom to its 2011 peak had nothing to do with the CPI. Also, an increase in the rate of “CPI inflation” would only ever be bullish for gold to the extent that it brought about declining confidence in the economy or the banking establishment, as indicated by credit spreads, real interest rates, the BKX/SPX ratio and the yield curve. Since it’s possible for the CPI to accelerate upward without a significant decline in confidence, it’s possible that an upward acceleration in the CPI would not be bullish for gold.

The bottom line is that as far as the gold market is concerned, the CPI is more of a distraction than a driver.

[edit:  Once more we ask readers to tune out promoters going on about China demand, Indian Wedding Season, US wages and consumer price inflation, Greece this and Ukraine that.  Saville just very clearly explained why they have been wrong for the entire bear market]

Biotech Sector Still Leading the Market

By Biiwii

The Biotech sector just keeps on going.  Exhibit A is AMGN, which this space noted had a target of 174 back in March when the price popped above 160.  Here’s the updated chart from that post.  It’s had a subsequent drop and rebound, keeping 174 in view.


We had an NFTRH+ update on an interesting pattern in GILD (daily and weekly charts were analyzed for subscribers) along with an upside target and stop loss parameters. GILD has been forming this pattern for months now.

Today was also interesting because several smaller, more speculative Bio’s were weak while the big boys were strong.  Here is the updated chart of the Biotech ETF (IBB), near the top of its channel.


What’s it mean?  Simply that an important market leader is still fully intact.  On that note, here is the BTK secular bull vs. NDX chart once again.  This secular bull is 15 years old.  Read into it what you may.