Guest Post by Doug Noland
Ominous geopolitical meets exuberant markets.
During Q4 2013, Total System Credit increased (nominal) $840bn to a record $58.991 TN, or 345% of GDP. On a percentage basis, total Credit expanded at a 5.8% rate during the quarter, up from Q3’s 3.8% but still below Q4 2012’s 6.2% pace. For all of 2013, system Credit expanded $2.139 TN, compared to 2012′s $1.613 TN increase. Total Corporate debt expanded $915bn, or 7.2%, to $13.622 TN. Non-financial Corporate debt expanded $783bn, or 9.0%, second only to 2007’s $856bn.
As for some other trades noted recently, the bowls of CORN and URG have been emptied. NFTRH 280 had noted the following last weekend…
“CORN (below) continues to hold the support zone so the brokerage portfolio continues to hold CORN. I would like to see an eventual shot toward the 200-day moving averages as a profit taking objective.”
Today it was sold as it popped up to that mark. A great little trade.
I had also noted in #280 that Ur-Energy may be sold and indeed it was, for the second time at an outstanding profit. Yet on this one I have a case of immediate remorse. I knew that would happen, but sometimes you’ve got to tune that shit out.
I am not thrilled with the level of speculation going on in commodities right now and have pared it all back as I nurse precious metals positions. Need to circle the wagons and figure some things out this weekend, because I am seeing some interesting and conflicting signs.
Meanwhile I still hold this goofy thing for some reason after coming close but not quite getting shaken out yesterday.
According to an email pal, GOGO is now getting touted out there on Twitter by trading jockeys and momentum heroes. Makes no never mind to me because I sold it today, taking my 15% and putting it in the bank. I’d consider buying it back down about the 50 day averages, but being a bottom feeder I don’t tend to play where the momos do.
A point I have been trying to make since the beginning, which in my case for public writing was 2004, is “but it is what it is” (biiwii). The name of the website was a direct (and bullish) response to my own bearish bias (which endures to this day because I have seen no improvement in monetary policy making) as the Greenspan era credit fueled cyclical bull market was getting ramped up. In other words, it is what it is; don’t fight it. It was bullish.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2014
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in wholesale trade but declined in information.
Employment Situation Summary from BLS
Guest Post by Tom McClellan
March 07, 2014
Since February 1 it’s all one market arrayed against one market, Uncle Buck. Maybe it should be called the ‘all but one market’ market. Whatever…