What is Different About This Cycle in Bond Yields?

Well for one thing, gold has often experienced strength during periods when long-term yields have risen.  The yellow bars on the 2 lower panels of the chart below show that.  Yet on this cycle, gold has gone down as long-term yields have risen.


On the current cycle yields have risen but short-term yields rose faster than long-term yields (30 vs. 5 year shown above).  Hello Op/Twist!  That implied (astutely painted, in my opinion) a ‘risk on’ atmosphere and little need for a monetary value relic as the world lurches toward return (otherwise known as risk taking).

So gold did not stay in alignment with rising yields but it did stay in alignment with the relationships of long and short-term yields.  This is why it is important to tune out 90% of what is out there, hysterically talking about rising or declining bond yields and the implications for not only gold, but inflation, the economy, etc.

We are in the realm of inter-market forensics.  We have been turned into detectives searching for clues beneath the surface because on the surface the mighty Federal Reserve is in the market buying, propping, jawboning and putting on the full court press toward whatever perceptions they want us to be adhering to.


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