Around the Web

By Biiwii

A more annoying ‘around the web’ than usual…

  • Adjusting Barry Ritholtz for inflation and hypocrisy  –IKN  [biiwii comment: a short, sweet and perfect little post exposing b/s in a corner of the internet i don’t normally expect to find it. but then again, it’s everywhere isn’t it?  i am sure in all my years of writing you’ve even found some of it here… and @ IKN and well, everywhere]
  • What Top Fund Managers Really Think About Gold  –Casey Research  [biiwii comment: speaking of bullshit, i’ll go a little IKN on you and present the winner of the b/s olympics, this hilariously titled piece from jeff clark.  jim rickards helped bail out ltcm, wrote books and is a smart guy who i sincerely respect.  but a top fund manager?  really?  now the rest of them… a “wealth coach”, a part newsletter writer/part fund manager and then old pal chris martenson, a “futurist who specializes in energy depletion”… please.  it’s another gold article attempting to make sense of things that seemingly don’t make sense, and that is the answer… it doesn’t make sense but it is what it is.  got that jeff?  i just wrote a post that wondered if the gold promoters were extinct or maybe just tuned out.  they’re not extinct, so hopefully they are well tuned out.  i’d better move on before i get hung up on this one and piss myself off]


Biotech Stocks Still Leading

The Bio’s continue to look like they have been consolidating as opposed to correcting.  Here is the daily chart from an NFTRH update this morning showing the consolidation triangle.  Today is making a move on that.


For more perspective and also from the update, here is the monthly chart of BTK leading the NDX (itself a leader) since 2011.


The thing is, every time I’ve thought about getting actively bearish, the Biotech sector has made me stop and think about momentum and dead bears along the road to a market top one day.  So instead I trade what is working.

The Biotech sector, as of exactly 12:20 PM US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 4th remains bullish.

eTrade to Bullard, Evans… We Love You!

By Biiwii

Recently we had James Bullard back in his Bad Cop uniform (let’s just sweep under the rug his little indiscretion in October when the tanking Semiconductor sector and stock market got him to show a few cards I assume he really didn’t want to show… ‘ahhh, we can always come out with QE4′) talking up rate hikes, and there is always the ever-present and resolute Richard Fisher.  Toss in a side of Plosser and you’ve got the Bad Cops.

Today we have Charles Evans and no reason to ‘hurry’ to raise rates.

So again I’d ask what kind of compromising photos to the brokerages have on these guys?  The commissions this market generates must be out of sight.

They trot out there and eat microphones with abandon and total disregard for what they do to stock markets that are running on momentum, emotion, black boxes and increasingly (ref. the speculation we’ve noted in risky Biotechs lately) a public back in and looking to make ‘coin’.  It’s a day trader’s wonderland, but for regular people it is flat out dangerous.

These clowns should have a gag order.  They obviously know what they do every time they jump a mic.  There should be one mouth for the Fed, Janet Yellen.  This multi-headed and contrary opinion making is ridiculous unless the market learns to tune them out; which it won’t.

It’s Not a Stock Bubble But a Bigger Corp. Bubble

By Alhambra Investment Partners

It’s Not A Stock Bubble But A Bigger Corporate Bubble

With liquidity running somewhat perilously noncommittal since June, you would think the riskiest parts of the credit market would be most affected. That is incorrect and once again stands out as to the bubbly nature of the current age. Aside from liquidity draining enthusiasm into and around October 15 and December 1, high yield debt has not only repriced itself back toward its prior levels but has also seen increasing exuberance in terms of volume.

The effects of the October 15 liquidity event remain as a reminder about volatility, but the dent itself has not yet appeared permanent or even durable. Starting with leveraged loan prices, the recent “pause” in “dollar” disruption has meant not just sideways trading in this highest of risk tiers but an actual retracement to a significant degree.

ABOOK March 2015 Corp Debt Lev Loans

Continue reading It’s Not a Stock Bubble But a Bigger Corp. Bubble

China’s Gold Holdings

By Steve Saville

Total guesswork regarding China’s gold holdings

Last year I noticed an article by Alasdair Macleod containing an estimate that China (meaning: China’s government) had accumulated 25,000 tonnes of gold between 1983 and 2002. I would say that this estimate was based on rank speculation, but that would be doing an injustice to rank speculation. It is more like total guesswork. It is largely based on assumptions that are either obviously wrong or that have no supporting evidence. I bring this up now because it looks like the 25,000-tonne figure that was plucked out of the air by Mr. Macleod last year is on its way to becoming an accepted fact in some quarters. For example, it forms the basis of a new estimate that China’s government now has 30,000 tonnes of gold.

Continue reading China’s Gold Holdings

Business Activity Expectations Plunging

By Elliott Wave International

Why Expectations for Future Global Business Activity are Plunging

Enjoy an excerpt from “The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition,” a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: This article is excerpted from “The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition,” a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest independent market-forecasting firm (data through December 2014). You can download the full, 53-page report here — 100% free.

In its November issue, published on Oct. 31, EWI’s European Financial Forecast discussed the plunging 5-year/5-year forward swap, a market-based gauge that measures inflation expectations from five years to 10 years out, and stated, “Even the central bank’s preferred inflation metric shows nothing but flat or falling prices over the foreseeable future.”

Continue reading Business Activity Expectations Plunging

Goog Bye

By Biiwii

GOOGL was an NFTRH+ trade idea on Feb. 17.  The target is 590, but I am going to do what I often do and sell below that target.  I am not going to be greedy in this market.  By “this market” I mean ‘this market with the really lousy sentiment backdrop':  Market Sentiment Hideously Over Bullish.  Over bullish does not mean ready to correct, but it does mean risk vs. reward is very bad and well, it simply means over bullish.

Taking the 5%.


Tilting at Golden Windmills

By Biiwii

dq.windmillsThere is a writer we’ll call Don Quixote who is tilting at something that no longer really exists… the evil gold promoters that used to be taken seriously by innocents to the tune of near total destruction of their portfolios.

Don once went on about the gold cult and I even highlighted his post because I had been going about the gold cult as well.  The cult-like aspect of the gold “community” (← a dead giveaway) was real, and the group-think that the 2001-2011 bull market fostered was very strong and really damaging to those who did not question its tenets until it was too late.

Continue reading Tilting at Golden Windmills

Is Japan Zimbabwe?

By Axel Merk

Is Japan Zimbabwe? How preposterous: Japan is an advanced economy that cannot possibly suffer the same fate as Zimbabwe. Right? Or could Japan get hyperinflation? Below I explain why Japan, and with it investors’ portfolios, might be at risk.

The other day, when I was on a panel discussing unsustainable deficits in the U.S., Eurozone and Japan, the risk of inflation and Zimbabwe style hyperinflation came up. When asked about the difference about Japan and Zimbabwe, I quipped that there isn’t any. My co-panelists were all over me, arguing Japan is different. Notably that Japan could not possibly go broke because, unlike Zimbabwe, it’s an advanced economy. The argument being that Japan produces goods the world wants.

Continue reading Is Japan Zimbabwe?

China Steering Back Toward Bubbles?

By Alhambra Investment Partners

China Steering Away From or Back Toward Bubbles?

The confusing nature of the PBOC’s actions in the past year or so has led now to publications of theories over a potential power struggle at the central bank. While finally acknowledging that last year was all about “targeted” approaches to monetary “guiding” economic reality, this year is about to explode in personnel changes and therefore, supposedly, a reactionary course to more familiar “flooding” of broad-based approaches. Curiously, unlike last year, there is no contention about the state of China’s economy as it is now-universally accepted as foundering badly.

The last two “rate cuts”, including the one just conducted this weekend, are being listed under that paradigm, though I don’t know how there is any way to reconcile them without including currency moves. The PBOC may have reduced its benchmark rates, but has simultaneously also moved to a higher fix on the currency. The latter is far more important and is perfectly within the “reform” paradigm as such a move is most likely (nobody will ever know for sure) aimed at speculative “dollar” financing of all China’s problems – bubbles.

Continue reading China Steering Back Toward Bubbles?

I Like to Box in Yellow Gox Box Socks

By Biiwii

Hey, I like Dr. Seuss.

The Semiconductors, which has been my favorite sector both for trading and for market indications (with the Biotech a close second) is merrily on its way to the 750 target.  This chart and its target were created as the Semiconductor index was consolidating a ‘Handle’ out of the ridiculous October hysterics (cue Microchip Semi with its idiot management… ‘errr, we are a bellwether and we see a Semi slow down’… FF 2 mos… ‘oh, never mind, business is great!’).  Amazingly, there are only 20 points to target.