Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market News & Analysis From Around the Web

 

Palladium vs. Gold

By Biiwii

No one indicator should be considered in a vacuum, especially one that is the ratio of a substance that has unique supply/demand fundamentals (Palladium) vs. one that is stable (Gold).  But here it is anyway, the Pall-Gold ratio as we have used for a long while in NFTRH.  Why?  Because for whatever reasons, it has been in line with economic cycles.

Here’s the weekly chart we usually use, showing a volatile series of spikes and drops.  The indication is still economic trend up, but as noted in NFTRH 336 “If this volatility keeps up it is going to turn the moving averages down and put a red arrow there.”

pall.gold

We also noted that nominal PALL is on the verge of entering a bear market, to join its big bro, Platinum.

Here is what Palladium is doing vs. Gold (roughly) today (PALL-GLD)…

pall.gld

Okay so remember, it is just an indicator made up of two discrete items.  But it is also an indicator that tends to be in line with economic up and economic down cycles.

Stock Market: This Again?

By Biiwii

Back in the December to February time frame we had been noting a ‘swing’ market (swing baby, swing!) AKA a Whipsaw market AKA a market for nimble swing traders.  There is no trend (on the daily time frame).  What there was a few months ago was an extended period of fleeting hard ups and commensurate hard downs.  So swing baby, swing!… but stay nimble.  Today looks like one of those after the hard drop last week.

Market participants seem to literally be jerking to every piece of data or information that comes out.  Strong Jobs = panic drop, FOMC lameness = rally, some middle east noise last week and mixed econ. data = drop, some China easing hype today = rally.

dow

NFTRH’s latest US stock market rundown is posted at NFTRH.com if you want to check it out.  Besides this fairly normal run through of important US markets, #336 had a lot to say about keeping perspective on the whole ball of wax.

I really feel like we have got our shit together, to put it as a I would put it in real life if you and I were just sitting and talking. And I’ve got all the patience in the world to boot.  Not only for playing US stocks, but the precious metals (which I feel we have managed pretty close to flawlessly thus far, and much of  the rest of the whole ball of wax).

Hint:  Use real data and objectivity and keep ego and bias contained, tune out useless hype and it’ all going to work out just fine.

NFTRH 336 Out Now

By Biiwii

Well, I just wrote 42 pages.  I’m spent, so no big promo.  I am personally enjoying the market for what it gives and having a good year so far.  In that existing trends have not changed yet, the real fun however, begins at some future point.

nftrh336

King’s Lead Hat… Eno

By Biiwii

“…the passage of my life is measured out in shirts”

Another musical hero of mine.  To me it wasn’t Roxy Music anymore after Brian Eno and his funny box of noise left.  Eno went on to make great records and produce lots of well known records by artists like Bowie, Talking Heads and U2.  He brought out some of the (IMO) greatest moments in their sounds.  It’s all because he understands sound on a level most of us just don’t.

[edit] adding an interesting interview…

Financial Services Industry Eats Clients

By Biiwii

Ref:  Why the big broker behind your financial adviser might be working against you

Tell me, which of them (the big brokers and investment houses) warned anyone about it being time to sell in 2000, or in 2007?  There are exceptions out there, especially in smaller boutique style shops.  But generally speaking, this thing we call Wall Street (big firms and the media that is their propaganda arm) exists to sell people the dream, then mark it up, front run it (in one way or another, legally or otherwise) extract fees from it and ultimately fleece it on the way down again (as regular people puke a tanking market and pay trading commissions for the privilege).

Here I cue up the old story about when I bought my first and only BMW (it was fine, but really it was not me) back in 2002.  The deal was done and I sat with the business manager to finalize the transaction.  He was a kid who had been fired from Merrill Lynch not 2 years earlier for keeping his clients in cash and totally safe at the market top.  Problem was, he was not turning tricks, err I mean commissions for Merrill.  All done.

Then there are the Certified Financial Advisers (the ones not incentivized with ties to performance) who are little more than mutual fund salesmen.  Don’t try to tell them about well rounded market analysis because they’re just going to go ‘la la la la la… I can’t hear you… have you stopped talking yet?… la la la…’ when you ask them about legitimate risk management strategies they employ.  Mine told me in 2000 ‘well, MFS and Putnam have professional money managers who would never allow big losses like you yourself would probably experience’.

Well thank you Putnam for cutting my wife’s IRA in half by 2002 (and it turned out, front running it) and MFS for chopping 40% off of mine.  This is when I pulled every penny from said adviser, did it myself and have since put on an annual average (including the last 3 very underwhelming years) of around 35% from 2002 to present day.

More than that though, the seeds were sewn for this website and its ‘not very pleased with Wall Street and the mainstream Financial Services industry’ orientation.

I get email updates from the White House and a recent one was talking about legislation to bring accountability to those financial advisers who are basically free to eat their clients (my words of course) and do not impose fiduciary responsibility upon themselves, and I think that is a good thing. These pigs need this responsibility imposed on them.

One thing that running NFTRH has done for me since 2008 is make me aware that there are plenty of advisers (some of whom subscribed) who are ethical and probably cannot live comfortably with themselves unless they are trying to do the right thing at all times.  This post is obviously about the other guys.  There’s a lot of them too.  Indeed, I’ll bet the big firms are infested with them.

Around the Web

By Biiwii

 

Nothing to Fear?

By Michael Ashton

Lots to Worry About but Nothing to Fear?

As we tick towards the end of the quarter, the news feeds are starting to look like they occasionally do when we are having a big spike in volatility.

We have the Greece deadline coming up. I don’t think anyone knows exactly when Greece’s finances will hit the wall, but it is going to be soon. And, compared with prior incarnations of this exact same crisis, there doesn’t seem to be nearly as much optimism about the probability of a “positive” resolution to this crisis. By “positive,” I mean in the sense that the status quo remains more or less preserved: Greece gets money, and pledges reforms, but nothing actually happens except that Greece’s depression continues. I don’t at all mean positive from the standpoint of the Greeks (I continue to think they will be better off in the medium-term to exit the Eurozone and default on Euro-denominated debt), or even from the standpoint of the Euro (assuming the single currency survives, the departure of Greece will be an important test case for the ramifications of re-shaping the currency bloc to a sturdier subset of countries that intend to move towards fiscal union). Interestingly, and in contrast to prior iterations of the exact same crisis, both sides appear to understand that Grexit does not mean disaster, and to perceive the possibility that it might make sense to let this happen – since, in any event, it is inevitable. There seems to be little urgency to craft a real deal, and the panicky increase in market volatility is missing this time.

Continue reading Nothing to Fear?

No Housing Bear Signal

By Tom McClellan

No Bear Market Signal Yet From Housing

US New Home Sales versus DJIA
March 26, 2015

Before each of the really ugly bear markets of the past 30 years, there has been an important signal from housing data well ahead of time.  We do not have such a signal now, and so that portends more upside in the months ahead for stock prices.

In fact, the past 3 months have seen a pretty substantial upsurge, especially in the Northeast and South regions of the USA as tracked by the Census Department.  That takes the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales to its highest level since February 2008.  Generally speaking, seeing this home sales data make higher highs has been good news for the long-term path of stock prices.  It is when the two diverge that problems start to develop.

Continue reading No Housing Bear Signal

Durable Goods Take Feb.

By Alhambra Investment Partners

Durable Goods Take February Too

So far the economic retrenchment has persisted into February, outlasting any significant January weather. The latest worrisome figures came in the form of durable goods and especially capital goods. The former is another peg in the consumption side while the latter is one of the few glimpses of wealth creation (if far from a complete one). Both sides, demand and supply, have had a rough run under the “rising dollar.” Like retail sales, it is clear that the economy is no longer just sputtering along and is now poised precariously.

Shipments of product are not moving very quickly at all but the pace of new orders has seriously slackened which does not suggest this is a “transitory” development. New orders for durable goods ex transportation have been below 1% year-over-year in both January and February; while new orders for capital goods non-defense non-aircraft were flat in both months (February was actually slightly negative).

Continue reading Durable Goods Take Feb.

Currencies

By INO.com

currenciesThe June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2014-2015-rally crossing at 95.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.58. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 99.30. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2014-2015-rally crossing at 95.62. Second support is the late- February low crossing at 94.53.

Continue reading Currencies