Why is NFTRH “A Different Kind of Financial Market Analysis“? NFTRH is different from services that follow markets using conventional technical and fundamental analysis because we have found that it is the relationships between different markets and asset classes that provide the most telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA catches on, and certainly before evidence shows up in macro fundamentals. NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is different because the writer’s career in business has taught him that customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to long-term success. Unsolicited comments from subscribers show that NFTRH is on track and continually improving.
Is NFTRH a market timing service? In a word, yes. We absolutely do not wish to ride out unfavorable intermediate-term market swings in service to any long-term view. That is because we deplore major capital draw downs. We will often ‘hold the fort’ over short-term periods in order to avoid being shaken out of intermediate trends, but risk management is an ongoing and always important component. So we time the markets, mostly on a risk vs. reward basis.
Is NFTRH a stock picking service? No. Equity holdings are shown weekly and ideas are presented either in NFTRH weekly reports or by email updates, when the risk vs. reward on a given situation is thought to be good. The writer manages and illustrates actual personal portfolios, not theoretical ones. Individual stock picks are not a priority, especially in the age of sector ETFs. Portfolio management is the priority. NFTRH is much more about getting the macro right than about individual equities. After all, if the market’s swings are managed correctly, the stock picking (again, including ETFs) is the relatively easy part. In short, if a stock picking service is what you seek, you should look elsewhere.
How does NFTRH evaluate its prospective stock holdings in individual companies? Technical analysis is the writer’s core competency when it comes to evaluating equities. In addition, NFTRH has close relationships and/or active subscriptions with quality services such as IKN Weekly, Mickey Fulp (Geologist), Metal Augmentor as well as other accomplished and highly regarded fundamental stock analysts. Finally, our macro work allows us to select from a range of ETFs to easily buy a market or theme that is aligned with current analysis.
Who Should Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who want a dedicated source that is always, but ALWAYS on the job tracking the market’s intermediate swings and thus its opportunities for alternately growing and preserving capital based on risk vs. reward. These individuals should NOT need paint-by-numbers instruction, but rather know what to do with the macro information provided. In short, NFTRH is for a sophisticated readership and is not appropriate for a mass audience.
Who Should Not Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who wish to be told what to do without the need to understand the ‘whats’ and ‘whys’ of what they are doing. There is an educational aspect to the service that many subscribers have come to value. If you just want picks and if you just want to ‘make coin’, this is likely NOT for you.
I have heard good things about your Interim Update services. Would you please elaborate? Interim updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH service has evolved. Based on input from many subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates are to the overall service, especially during major turning points and/or upheavals in the financial markets. Updates are available for review at the top right section of the main site as they come public about a week after being made available to subscribers.
What other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and analysis? NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to SentimenTrader.com (sentiment is a key component of successful contrarian market analysis), McClellan Financial for market intelligence, Bespoke Premium for unparalleled market research and the premium charting package at Stockcharts.com. NFTRH is always on the lookout for new services to combine with the writer’s abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers.
Is your focus US-centric or global in nature? The writer is aware that the country he calls home, the US, may well be slowly falling behind ascendant, productive economies the world over. The wonderful thing about investing is that it opens up boundaries to the entire world. While there will be many swings along the way, the writer believes in the concept of a “global leveling of the playing field”, to quote the words of NFTRH’s ‘charter subscriber’, a highly regarded financial firm partner with a global focus [rest in peace my friend].
What is the difference between your ‘standard TA’ and the so-called ‘forensic’ indicators? Though uniquely tailored to the writer’s strengths, the standard TA is simply select combinations of well known classic technical analysis. From there the work expands into ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early warning ‘forensic’ clues to likely future events. Examples of these indicators would be the performance of ‘junk’ bonds vs. investment grade, and the performance of silver vs. gold. In essence, these can act like credit spreads and give major clues as to macro turns that may be in the offing. Standard TA on the other hand, simply projects based on nominal charts and certainly has a place in the analysis as well.
How did you first become interested in the financial markets? The writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in a previous cyclical bear market (2000-2003) and was driven to find out what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary viewpoint, the gains have been satisfactory, annualized at about 35% per year from 2002 through 2010.
You tout gains of 42.5% for 2010 and 151% from the NFTRH baseline (1st issue, dated Sept. 28, 2008) at Dec. 31, 2010. Are these figures before or after commissions and expenses? All portfolio performance figures presented are after expenses, which is how things work in the real world. NFTRH exists in the real world.
Are you an ‘Inflationist’ or a ‘Deflationist’? Keynesian or Gold Bug? None of the above as pertains to investment and trading. The writer strongly believes that digging one’s heels in to a given viewpoint can inflict unnecessary damage upon one’s finances. NFTRH has identified what it calls the ‘continuum’ (a decades long trend in treasury bonds) by which inflationary policy is enabled by the system’s deflationary ‘need to correct’ the excesses. An inflationary regime continues as long as there is a perceived deflationary threat to be battled by money printing policy makers. Hence, the writer considers himself something of a gold bug in the big picture, minus the ‘us against them’ mentality that promotes emotional decision making.
I just subscribed… Now what? Shortly after subscribing (usually within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a welcoming email with the latest issue of NFTRH attached, along with instructions for logging in to the archive. Then you will receive a full issue of NFTRH each Sunday along with interim email updates for as long as the subscription remains active.
I want to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my particular needs. Please monitor the site and sign up for the free (and spam free) eLetter to get a feel for the writer. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed than the blog in its analysis, but it helps to get familiar with the brand of analysis, which is decidedly unconventional. Or simply give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you wish with no further obligation.
Is the annual subscription option refundable? No! If you have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option. For the record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in sync with the letter’s style. This can easily be done at any time through PayPal.
Can you sum up your philosophy in a simple paragraph? Why yes, in fact this excerpt from NFTRH156 speaks directly to this question:
“Am I bullish? No, not overly so quite yet. Am I bearish? Not in the near to intermediate term, but bigger picture bear signals should be respected until they are negated. They are a long way from negation. Some market analysis serves up bold commentary on bullish and bearish cases over short, intermediate and long-term horizons. NFTRH simply will not make this commitment because I prefer to be right – or make on the fly adjustments to get right – rather than make calls that either scare or titillate people, and set the letter up to be a proponent of one ideology or another.”
I no longer wish to keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your own PayPal account or send an email to gt @ biiwii.com with a request to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the email distribution list until the current payment expires. Remember that annual subscriptions are not refundable.