[edit 11.25.13] After much thought, portfolio composition/discussion will once again be included in the weekly letter. Also, trading opportunities will be included at the site for NFTRH subscribers when good risk vs. reward situations are identified. We had tried a ‘model portfolio’ idea, which quite frankly, was a dud as it displayed no ‘value added’ to the service.
NFTRH Speculation Portfolio (personal Roth IRA, reinstated 12.1.13) at 12.6.13:
Performance from 12.1.13 baseline: +4%
Performance from original NFTRH baseline (9.28.08): +158%
Detailed updates of our actual personal portfolios were suspended (in favor of model portfolios) as of NFTRH 249 (7.28.13) due to conflicts between my need as a trader to be dynamic and my need as a newsletter writer to provide a stable and sensible ongoing macro thesis. Final performance from NFTRH baseline is noted below. Performance is the result of trading the macro analysis in NFTRH.
NFTRH Speculation (Final, 9.28.08 to 7.28.13) +149%, which is a +32.5% average annual return.
NFTRH Capital Preservation/Model (Final, April, 2005 to Sept., 2012) +58% total return.*
Using the disciplined analysis presented each week in NFTRH, we out performed the S&P 500 and the HUI Gold Bugs Index as follows. September 28, 2008 to July 28, 2013 total return:
NFTRH Speculation Portfolio +149%
S&P 500 +39.5%
HUI Gold Bugs Index -22%
* This account spent the majority of 2005-2012 as a strict ‘Capital Preservation’ account and then a year or so as a ‘Model’ portfolio seeking to be in sensible alignment with any given macro backdrop.