Category Archives: Commodities

Uranium; Hype or ?

Last week we did an NFTRH+ on Uranium in general, with a focus on the Global X fund URA.  I personally decided to take a try with its largest holding, Cameco today on the drop to the SMA 200.  The next clear level is at just above 20.

ccj

Of interest is Uranium holder Uranium Participation, U.TO, as it sports a healthy premium to its NAV as of the end of June ($CAD 4.03/share vs. today’s stock price of 4.95).

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Industrial Metals Above Resistance

I am long DBB and the intent is just as a trade.  But the big picture view of the Industrial Metals index shows a break above resistance this month out of a large falling wedge.  If that is not reversed by month’s end, then we’ll have to think about the base metals a little more seriously.  For now, the candle could easily sag back below the red line.

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Key Market Report – Energies

Guest Post by Ino.com

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Aug 2014 105.90 +0.31 +0.29%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Aug 2014 3.0517 +0.0044 +0.14%
NATURAL GAS Sep 2014 4.645 -0.013 -0.28%
RBOB GASOLINE Aug 2014 3.0811 +0.0150 +0.49%
POWERSHARES DWA ENERGY MOMENT 64.6520 +0.2920 +0.45%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 63.5300 +0.3300 +0.52%
ENERGIES

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Commodities Roll Over

NFTRH had projected a top of some kind (whether merely corrective or terminal) in the CCI commodity index as the leaders in Agriculture were due to roll over from excessively over bought (and over hyped).  We have been describing what has been going on in commodities as a good old fashioned rotation of rolling speculations with the hedgies, various other black boxes and momo’s playing the sector.  There is nothing but hot air to the noted support level.

cci

 

Lithium ETF Revisited

So now that the momo stuff is dusting itself off (including Tesla), I guess it is time for the LIT chart to express itself bullishly as well.  Here is the original NFTRH+ post and its daily chart just above support.  Here is the public post with a weekly chart done at a subscriber’s request a couple days later.  What’s it mean?  Other than that a formerly hyped commodity is breaking out of a falling wedge amidst some regenerating market momentum, I don’t really know.  But I do hold it for now.

lit

Lithium ETF, Weekly

Per an NFTRH subscriber’s request, here is a weekly chart of the Global X Lithium ETF.  I realize that there is Tesla hype built into this chart and also that a certain renaissance man who basically invented the investment case for Lithium (in his own mind) is touting, but here’s the chart anyway, looking pretty decent.

lit.weekly

LIT has consolidated to a notable support zone, is MACD positive (though down triggered) and is AROON up.  Further, two moving averages that triggered down in 2011 signaling the bear, have triggered up and remain so during the ongoing corrective consolidation to support.

All in all, not a bad chart as it stands now.

Uranium Hat Tip to IKN

Late in 2013 into early 2014 this simple chart guy noted positive happenings in Uranium Miner fund URA and in u3o8 holder Uranium Participation.  Why?  The charts did not care.  The resulting trades were profitable.

But there was a fundamental guy who is really familiar with the mining scene and he called bullshit on the Uranium hype.  It helped keep me grounded and out of the trouble that could have resulted from becoming a true believer.

Here he rightfully takes a bit of a bow on that call.

Saving people money by calling b/s on whatever pumping goes on up there in Vancouver is as important as helping peole make money by positioning for speculation.

CORN Trade Closed

Well for me, anyway NFTRH+’s first trade, CORN is now closed out with a massive 4% profit!  Okay, so it was just a modest little profit.  The idea is profit and this was never going to be a big trade.  Just getting my feet wet with NFTRH+, which will not go commercial until September.  Meanwhile, we are dry running some things for NFTRH subscribers – who will be offered a discount for this addition to the regular premium service when it goes live.  This way, I get to prove the service’s worth or if I suck, skulk away with no one the worse for wear.   :-(

You can keep track of NFTRH+ trades here, after they come free of password protection.  Though we are in a big and difficult macro pivot, where bulls, bears and various asset class sponsors are getting ground up routinely, I intend for NFTRH to win out.  Not just with trading, but especially with the regular NFTRH service (and its intermediate trend orientation) that is not in this for anything other than ultimate victory.

corn

Crude Oil Commercial Traders Bet on Decline

Guest Post by Tom McClellan

Commercial traders' net position in crude oil futures
March 28, 2014

It has not caught much attention in the financial media, but just 3 weeks ago, the commercial traders of crude oil futures reached an all-time high in terms of a net short position.  The commercial traders are the big money, and thus they are presumed to be the smart money.  But quite often they will get to a skewed position well ahead of a turn for crude oil prices.

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Uranium Sector Pullback

Well, the price of Uranium has not pulled back because it never went up.  That is something to be watched.

The Global X Uranium fund was sold at very over bought levels into building Ukraine hysteria.  Today it is bought back at a level NFTRH had noted several weeks ago might be a buy back opportunity in the 16′s.  You can’t win it if you’re not in it so we’ll see how it works out.

ura

While I was at it I also picked up some more of this lil’ feller right at the long term support line.  It had been resistance, which was soundly broken.

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