Category Archives: Commodities

Commodities and Inflation

Folks, this chart is from yesterday’s close.  Commodities are down hard again today.  They are also deeply over sold, yet I still want nothing to do with them (note to self… don’t let silver drop too far with those calls still in hand).  500 is the key level per this weekly NFTRH chart we have used since well before CCI’s breakout early in the year.

cci

It is time to be considering that the age of inflation or more accurately its cost-effects may be over.

It is time to be considering that inflation gurus set up a cottage industry in scaring everybody about hyper inflation.

It is time to be considering that for now the US economy and stock markets benefit from a transitional Goldilocks phase.

It is also time to consider the message that commodities may be sending for a day when that pendulum (the lack of inflation expectations) swings too far.

tip.tlt

Palladium Chart Getting Bearish Too

Joining its friends in the commodity and precious metals complexes, the daily Palladium chart is starting to get bearish as if on cue, after reading this article at Kitco.

Aside from instructing that the 50 day moving average is a place to bet against Palladium for those who wish (we’ll call this a public NFTRH+ style highlight, without the other parameter details), the “major uptrend in 2014″ that the article talks about is busted.

pall

Macro geeks like your writer will be using Palladium in relation to Gold going forward as but one tool among many in gauging the macro.  After all, that’s where the real interesting stuff is, as opposed to any single asset class in my opinion.

Doctor Copper Updated

Copper is a tough one.  If copper hangs in and hints at an ‘inflation trade’ (i.e. anti-USD) bounce to come, I’d like to buy COPX or FCX.  The charts are coming along nicely.  COPX was NFTRH+’d recently for just such an occasion.

The weekly chart of copper is trying to hold above a downtrend breakout line and hold a trend out of March.

copper

But the monthly chart is still disgusting, a year or so after it was created…

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Uranium; Hype or ?

Last week we did an NFTRH+ on Uranium in general, with a focus on the Global X fund URA.  I personally decided to take a try with its largest holding, Cameco today on the drop to the SMA 200.  The next clear level is at just above 20.

ccj

Of interest is Uranium holder Uranium Participation, U.TO, as it sports a healthy premium to its NAV as of the end of June ($CAD 4.03/share vs. today’s stock price of 4.95).

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Industrial Metals Above Resistance

I am long DBB and the intent is just as a trade.  But the big picture view of the Industrial Metals index shows a break above resistance this month out of a large falling wedge.  If that is not reversed by month’s end, then we’ll have to think about the base metals a little more seriously.  For now, the candle could easily sag back below the red line.

gyx

Key Market Report – Energies

Guest Post by Ino.com

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Aug 2014 105.90 +0.31 +0.29%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Aug 2014 3.0517 +0.0044 +0.14%
NATURAL GAS Sep 2014 4.645 -0.013 -0.28%
RBOB GASOLINE Aug 2014 3.0811 +0.0150 +0.49%
POWERSHARES DWA ENERGY MOMENT 64.6520 +0.2920 +0.45%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 63.5300 +0.3300 +0.52%
ENERGIES

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Commodities Roll Over

NFTRH had projected a top of some kind (whether merely corrective or terminal) in the CCI commodity index as the leaders in Agriculture were due to roll over from excessively over bought (and over hyped).  We have been describing what has been going on in commodities as a good old fashioned rotation of rolling speculations with the hedgies, various other black boxes and momo’s playing the sector.  There is nothing but hot air to the noted support level.

cci

 

Lithium ETF Revisited

So now that the momo stuff is dusting itself off (including Tesla), I guess it is time for the LIT chart to express itself bullishly as well.  Here is the original NFTRH+ post and its daily chart just above support.  Here is the public post with a weekly chart done at a subscriber’s request a couple days later.  What’s it mean?  Other than that a formerly hyped commodity is breaking out of a falling wedge amidst some regenerating market momentum, I don’t really know.  But I do hold it for now.

lit

Lithium ETF, Weekly

Per an NFTRH subscriber’s request, here is a weekly chart of the Global X Lithium ETF.  I realize that there is Tesla hype built into this chart and also that a certain renaissance man who basically invented the investment case for Lithium (in his own mind) is touting, but here’s the chart anyway, looking pretty decent.

lit.weekly

LIT has consolidated to a notable support zone, is MACD positive (though down triggered) and is AROON up.  Further, two moving averages that triggered down in 2011 signaling the bear, have triggered up and remain so during the ongoing corrective consolidation to support.

All in all, not a bad chart as it stands now.