Guest Post by Tom McClellan
March 28, 2014
It has not caught much attention in the financial media, but just 3 weeks ago, the commercial traders of crude oil futures reached an all-time high in terms of a net short position. The commercial traders are the big money, and thus they are presumed to be the smart money. But quite often they will get to a skewed position well ahead of a turn for crude oil prices.
Well, the price of Uranium has not pulled back because it never went up. That is something to be watched.
The Global X Uranium fund was sold at very over bought levels into building Ukraine hysteria. Today it is bought back at a level NFTRH had noted several weeks ago might be a buy back opportunity in the 16′s. You can’t win it if you’re not in it so we’ll see how it works out.
While I was at it I also picked up some more of this lil’ feller right at the long term support line. It had been resistance, which was soundly broken.
The bowl of CORN continues to look good. I sold it on an up spike to the 200 day moving averages (not shown on this chart), but it is still very intact, technically.
By the way, I have re-enabled comments. They were disabled quite a while ago as I was trying to figure out site performance issues. But I think they had nothing to do with that. I’d like to hear from you if you’ve got something to add. Of course this means that a lunatic stalker or two will try commenting as well. Emphasis on ‘try’.
As for some other trades noted recently, the bowls of CORN and URG have been emptied. NFTRH 280 had noted the following last weekend…
“CORN (below) continues to hold the support zone so the brokerage portfolio continues to hold CORN. I would like to see an eventual shot toward the 200-day moving averages as a profit taking objective.”
Today it was sold as it popped up to that mark. A great little trade.
I had also noted in #280 that Ur-Energy may be sold and indeed it was, for the second time at an outstanding profit. Yet on this one I have a case of immediate remorse. I knew that would happen, but sometimes you’ve got to tune that shit out.
I am not thrilled with the level of speculation going on in commodities right now and have pared it all back as I nurse precious metals positions. Need to circle the wagons and figure some things out this weekend, because I am seeing some interesting and conflicting signs.
Meanwhile I still hold this goofy thing for some reason after coming close but not quite getting shaken out yesterday.
A weekly chart for an NFTRH subscriber and anyone else who is interested.
Natural Gas fund UNG got over bought and has had a lot of post-breakout chop. Those interested in UNG would be looking to the noted support zone to take positions. Above that zone it really is in a good looking technical stance.
Sensible portfolio management demands that when a position grows out of balance with other positions it is time to trim it back into balance. So okay, twist my arm… I’ll take partial profits on URA and URG, which was Stock XYZ mentioned yesterday.
And no I am not nearly always right. Most recently I thoroughly screwed up Natural Gas. But this racket is about more wins than losses last I checked. The uranium bottoming patterns noted quite a while ago in NFTRH are working out.
 I changed my mind. The profit is too good so URA is sold in its entirety (again) and a reduced position in URG will be held indefinitely.
Here is a chart that has caused me little worry since it was originally highlighted in NFTRH and bought (and traded a few times) late last year, the Global X Uranium ETF.
Selling the spikes and buying the drops has worked well. But a simple hold strategy is fine too through a series of higher highs and higher lows out of a bottoming pattern.
It was most recently bought back at the late January drop. I held through last week’s drop because the goal in this series of higher lows and higher highs is another higher high. Simple, eh?
My favorite individual U stock has a very nice long term weekly chart and while volatile, it never threatened a breakdown either. Hence I hold both, with some nice gains today of 12% and 5% for stock XYZ and URA respectively.
So today’s lesson to us from Pooh Bear is to keep it simple and just maybe sometimes you find a pot of hunny. NFTRH 279 kept it real simple…
“URA (above) is okay above noted support. Still looking for a higher high to January.”
NFTRH 278 said this about agricultural commodities funds DBA, CORN and JO:
“DBA was sold from the brokerage portfolio due to its over bought status last week, but CORN is still held because of a neat looking consolidation above the MA 50’s.”
“Coffee is one reason the Ag’s got over bought, but the consolidation looks bullish.”
Being who I am, I just could not buy the JO consolidation, but it is breaking upward on cue. CORN I could keep holding and now its bottoming pattern is expressing itself as it errr… should.
It’s in alignment with a positive view for the whole damn commodity complex and a new wrinkle in the analysis to be fleshed out and kept tabs upon going forward.