Well, Unc has been rallying hard lately. At least part of this must be in anticipation of some hawkish talk expected to emanate from Jawbones shortly. But what if they continue to glad hand the market? The over bought US dollar could be vulnerable to some extent.
We have not checked in on this motley crew at the public site in a long time (NFTRH keeps a running tab each week). Here are the monthly views of the basket cases we call major currencies.
Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by “The Hero” and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time. In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route. When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.
Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern. There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc. I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root *. Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.
Guest Post by EWI
Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to “buy” some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal.
In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 371.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then, was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 371.25 grains — equal to 24.057 grams, or 0.7734 Troy oz. — of pure silver. (15.43 grains = 1 gram, and 480 grains = 1 Troy ounce.)
Guest Post by Ino.com
Not that I want to poke fun at an asset (it’s more its promoters that deserve the poking) that I have considered essential monetary insurance (read: value) throughout its cyclical bear market. In fact, I believe that Europeans especially should be paying attention now as Gold-Euro fans its way along after closing the Euro Crisis ‘fear gap’ from 2010.
Guest Post by Ino.com
The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 78.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.06. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 79.09. Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.91.
One is dropping below its MA 50′s and the other is popping above, after the ECB sat on its hands with rates but made a lot of Jawboning about ‘unconventional’ stimulus in the battle against the dreaded deflation.
It is unbelievable the degree to which people still have confidence in these clowns (including the ones packed into the little clown car here in the US), but apparently they do.
The Euro is closing in on a target (the top downtrend line) we have had on since the bottoming pattern formed during the Euro crisis drama a couple years ago.
I am long Yen by a trade and long the USD by significant cash position. Other than that I don’t really care about FOREX. For anyone who does however, EWI is free weeking again and you just might want to check it out. I am going to go get it, but if past is any guide for me personally, I’ll probably not pay much attention. … Currencies just don’t float my boat other than as macro indicators and such.
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Today, you need to be paying attention to forex because of:
- Several high-probability Elliott wave trade setups in EUR/USD and USD/JPY
- The emerging currency crisis and its implications
- The new Fed chief and potential changes to the QE
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 Here’s an example of one pair that did happen to interest me, as it is USD-JPY. It was posted at 3:01 today… click the graphic for full size.
The Aussie has been very bearish but recently turned up above formerly broken resistance.
Canada is still bearish after breaking down from a brutal looking long term pattern.
Traditionally these currencies turn up with commodities and US inflation. If there is to be a coming inflation issue, we might expect the same. But then again what is traditional anymore in today’s steroid-enhanced asset markets? Canada looks just awful.