Category Archives: Gold

CNBC on Gold

As Fed Looms, is Gold’s $1200 Support Vulnerable?

What kind of FOMC week would it be without some gold obsession in the headlines of the mainstream media?

Gold may drop to $1,200 an ounce, possibly breaching the key support level, thanks to a resurgent U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could signal tighter policy this week, CNBC’s latest survey of strategists, analysts and traders shows.

Says who?

“In the shorter term I believe gold tests $1,200, trades as low as $1,190 or so, after which the bargain-hunters will come in and move the price back to the $1,240 to $1,250 level,” said Anthony Grisanti, President of GRZ Energy in a September 15 commentary. “Geopolitical has been quiet and all major economies are easing one way or another. And that makes the Greenback the strongest buck on the block. My bias for gold is lower.”

Oh, says Anthony Grisanti.  Okay.  Well even just mentioning “geopolitical” disqualifies Mr. Grisanti because it has nothing to do with gold.  But for the sake of argument, gold has already lost support per this alternate chart I am using due to stockcharts.com being on the fritz this morning.

gold

See that low at a nice, crisp 1240?  That was a loss of support.  Before that gold dumped out of a Symmetrical Triangle, targeting below 1200.  I am flying naked here without stockcharts.com, but I don’t recall any notable support at 1200.  The strategist wouldn’t be talking about ’round number’ support just to fill some headlines on FOMC week, would he?

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Gold vs Commodities

Listen folks, this is an economic indicator.  While legions of gold bugs continually obsess on the metal itself as some sort of Idol, it is actually just a simple counter cyclical asset.  When it is measured against cyclical assets like commodities, it can give macro signals.

gold.cci

The message here is that Au-CCI has broken above some moving averages that have held it down since 2012.  If these moving averages cross, it would mean a condition is in place that indicated the US financial crisis and the acute phase of the Euro crisis.

Gold rooters and gold stock boosters may be chomping at the bit to get bullish, but they are going to need to be patient.  This macro stuff plays out of time and we as humans tend to see things on the day-to-day.

Today’s Employment Report and the anecdotal information I have on machine tools may (repeat may) be initial signs of a better environment for the gold sector (Au-CCI is up today, not shown on the chart above), but… patience please.  We have to get rid of all the bugs that think Ukraine has anything to do with anything and Indian Wedding Season is the big driver.

Welcome Back Boyz!

The last item in NFTRH 306’s ‘Wrap Up’ segment:

“The Boyz come back next week and it is time to be coming off summer maintenance mode and really paying attention.”

Okay Boyz, you’ve got our attention.

gold.kitco

This is really not a serious post in any way imaginable.  In fact, these things usually strike my funny bone.  I mean the myth, the predictability and then seeing the visual above is just funny.  Da Boyz, back from da Hamptins and ready to roll.

Gold, Monthly Perspective

Reference the recent post using monthly views of HUI, Gold and Silver.  It is linked above for review.  Today I have taken the updated gold chart from that post and marked it up with a (blue) line showing gold’s current price.  Note the strategic small Symmetrical Triangle.  If that lower Triangle breaks down, gold is done.  If not, we grind forward.  The original post gives upside and downside targets.

gold.monthly

Great News for Gold

auFirst off, I want to acknowledge the passing of Robin Williams here on this site that almost never (aside from Friday afternoons) goes off topic.  Considering Williams’ passing along with that of Philip Seymour Hoffman, there is now a gaping hole in the artistic landscape.  It always seems so stunning when brilliant people die too young, especially when it happens in ways that we might think could have been avoided.

Back here in the looney bin, here comes CNBC wondering about why gold cannot “find the vigor usually associated with rising fear” with respect to ongoing geopolitical strife.  You know, the more I read the mainstream media, the more I believe the writers just need to churn out the info bites.  Some might think it is all planted disinformation but I think it is just the watered down Zombie that is the MSM having to make quota on information, and the greater the pap quotient the better for easy digestion by millions of eyeballs.

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Gold Oil Ratio; at Neckline

The gold ETF vs. the crude oil ETF is banging the neckline of a bullish pattern today.  Right minded gold miner bulls are not cheering for oil to drag gold upward in a hype-filled inflation party (with a side of inflammatory geopolitics).  They are wanting to see gold out perform oil going forward.

gld.uso

Gold vs.

Gold vs. Silver is coming around to the preferred fundamental plan, with a nice little pattern (this one however, is open to debate, fundamentally)…

gld.slv

Gold vs. Commodities is breaking a bullish flag…

gld.dbc

Gold vs. Crude Oil is in a bullish pattern, but not above the neckline.  This one is important to the miners…

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Gold vs Euro, a Story

The monthly chart updates the situation in gold vs euro and tells a little story.

au.euro

You see, once upon a time millions of Knee Jerks came flying into gold in panicked response to a credit meltdown in the weaker components of their union.  The first of these monetary refugees created ‘fear gaps’ and the last of them, the unsustainable blow off top.  By then, the gold mini hysteria had gone global and gold – all those unhealthy holders in tow – was cooked for a coming bear market.

Now gold vs euro is in the finishing stages of what looks like an Inverted H&S bottom after poking down and closing the open gap in 2013.  The left side Shoulder did this and then the Head rammed down even deeper just to make sure.  Now we have Portugal and all those low quality bond yields that were until yesterday showing a clear lack of respect for risk management.

People never change.  They herd, they over intellectualize and they take too much to heart what other people say, without realizing that other people have agendas.  Charts on the other hand, simply tell stories over time and space.  This one has an interesting story.

Jay Taylor; a Perfect Storm?

Over the last 2+ years of a cyclical bear market in gold I have not seen much, if anything, of Jay Taylor.  When I first came along to the gold sector in 2002 there was Jay among several other standbys writing about the precious metals.  Some of them I very much respected too.

Taking this article at face value and without prior judgement we’ll parse through it and see what we have…

A Perfect Storm to Push Gold Higher?

Martin Weiss put out a very interesting piece tying together various rising political tensions in the Ukraine, tensions between Japan and China in the East, and rising tensions in the Middle East with rising levels of inflation. Again, I think my Inflation-Deflation Watch [IDW] is telling us that whether it makes sense or not, we are now starting to see a breakout in inflation, at least in terms of overall asset prices.

Off to a bad start Jay.  Martin Weiss, are you kidding me?  His articles would not be complete without the obligatory pictures of angry Arabs and burning oil derricks.  Ukraine?  Geopolitical tensions and inflation?  Is that the sustainable case for gold?  Your IDW is telling us that inflation in terms of asset prices is breaking out?  Inflation has been breaking out ever since the biggest part of the stock bull market engaged in 2013 and that inflation has fed directly into stocks not gold.

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Gold’s Big Picture

This chart needs no mark ups.  Very simply, gold needs to follow the miners (already crossed) and cross MACD up and then take out the area where the Bollinger Band mid point meets the (red) EMA 45.  Combine these with a green RSI over 50 and AROON going 0+ and you’d have a genuine bull market in gold.

gold

This chart will be stored in the Public Charts list linked above so you can follow its progress any time.

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The Real Price of Gold

The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding.  Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.

gld.dbc

And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets.  Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU…

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