Over at NFTRH we had a pretty extensive subscriber market update, going over targets, risk profiles, etc. for US stocks (and precious metals). Here is one graph from the update and it is not pretty dear stock market bulls.
Well, it is pretty I guess if you are a momo oriented Casino player. But it is not pretty for risk vs. reward players. While I understand that extreme sentiment goes hand in hand with bullish momo upside (i.e. mania), that does not change the fact that risk vs. reward sucks.
Gathering thin reeds–Jeff Saut[biiwii comment; oh jeff, how could you own anything by putnam? oh, they’ve cleaned up their front running act? i see. all the same, no thank you… not that it matters to you, but you are on notice for inclusion in this segment in the future. putnam? really? every time I saw the ‘proud sponsor of the n.e. patriots’ ads this past football season, I wanted to hurl]
HP Warns and Blames the Mighty Greenback–Across the Curve[biiwii comment: add hp to the list. since q4 we have been on watch for the strong dollar dynamic to have some effect in corp. america. not the end of the world, but an effect]
 I made an assumption on STOXX vs. SPX based on activity in the European ETFs, but it turns out that STOXX itself did not rise nearly as high. The basic situation of the chart below remains roughly the same.
Folks, the market was bullish; and by market I mean US, Europe, China, Japan… the whole enchilada. Why people even bother taking the headlines seriously is beyond me. All this Greek stuff did was reset sentiment to sustain the bull just as so many hysterics burped up by an unhinged system have done for years now. They are like a series of jolts to the system. What’s that thing EMT’s use to try to revive people?
Don’t think in linear terms; it’ll get you killed. Instead, think about value and long-term term investment in things of value, but at the same time realize what bullish is in the casino. While I have continued trimming profits on individual US stocks, I have been replanting in others. I’ll take what the casino gives.
How to promo… how to promo? NFTRH 329 took a hard look at the realities of what happened last week and despite an end of week reversal (below SPX key resistance of 2165) it found that at week’s end the bulls and the risk ‘ON’ contingent regained their footing.
Going the other way, the rise in short-term yields vs. long-term yields was gold bearish and not friendly to Team Risk ‘OFF’.
A really good market report doing the work it has to do every step of the way. Of course we are in the volatile ‘swing baby, swing’ market so we’ll be ready to adjust as always over the coming week. The key is to be in proper position for when the ‘swing’ phase consolidation ends.
What the market doom and gloomers fail to grasp about anemic growth–Nouriel Roubini[biiwii comment: still fighting a war that was already won – against hyperinflationists and commodity mega bulls. this link is included to show what the mainstream takes as gospel from a rock star economist. a good amount of this article is hogwash, you can pick out the b/s for yourself ]
Will the Top Callers Get Clowned Again?–Josh Brown[biiwii comment: that remains to be seen josh, but as NFTRH just illustrated for its subscribers, there is a potential scenario for a bear trap and bounce]
Another solid report this week. I know that because it helped me out yet again in trying to understand all the components in play across markets; all the tops spinning around on the table.
Stock market sentiment is an issue as markets continue at an important technical decision point. The precious metals have short-term technical parameters but more importantly, they have some pretty important long-term signals coming in. Well, gold and even more so, gold miners. Silver is not something I am personally excited about on the big picture.
The biggest picture view, which has been an uninterrupted global economic contraction is intact and getting stronger. From that spring so many other items for extrapolation and strategy.