Category Archives: Financial Markets

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

  • Going Bust for Growth (PDF)  –Raghuram Rajan (to the Economic Club of NY) [biiwii comment: my personal central banking ‘hero’ speaks:  “The current non-system in international monetary policy is, in my view, a source of substantial risk, both to sustainable growth as well as to the financial sector. It is not an industrial country problem, nor an emerging market problem, it is a problem of collective action. We are being pushed towards competitive monetary easing and musical crises.”]
  • Avago to Buy Broadcom for $37b  –Bloomberg [biiwii comment: why again have we been interested in the semi’s since january of 2013? beuller?  here’s the chart of former NFTRH+ highlight BRCM; not that that long-ago update had anything to do with this.  that target was reached and exceeded a year ago… :-( ]

brcm

 

Gold Sector Weakness on Cue

By Biiwii

Fundamentally, the gold stock rally was labeled a “bounce only” because it was just another item rising anti-USD in an ‘inflation trade’ revival.  Right along with Oil, Copper and the outliers like REE, Lithium, Uranium, etc.

If we are disinterested in commodities (I am and have been), then we were cautious on the precious metals for this reason.

Like it or not, we are in a process of eliminating the inflationist gold bugs, and a lot of ‘inflation trade’ promoters while we’re at it.  I guess that is me being “sanctimonious” as one blog described me recently.  I prefer ‘overly judgmental’, but whatever.

Moving on, one indicator of the coming problem in the gold sector was the tried and true HUI-Gold ratio (HUI-GLD used here, while NFTRH used a very similar HUI-Gold chart to note the early caution signal on May 17).

hgr

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market analysis & news from around the web
  • Wall Street Vampires  –Paul Krugman  [biiwii comment: i’ll highlight anyone, incl. Krugman, when they are right about something; or at least mostly right about something. imo Krugman is right about this something]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Analysis & News From Around the Global Buzz Factory

 

If Liquidity is Your Sword, Keep Swinging

By Michael Ashton

I am not one of those people who believe that if the Fed is dramatically easing, you simply must own equities. I must admit, charts like the one below (source: Bloomberg), showing the S&P versus the monetary base, seem awfully persuasive.

monbaseequalsstocks Continue reading If Liquidity is Your Sword, Keep Swinging

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Market News & Analysis From Around the Intertubes…

 

Whack-a-Mole: China Pops its Head Up

By Biiwii

US Stock Index Futures Rise on China…

“If the second largest economy in the world, right, says ‘we’re going to inject as much liquidity as we have since the financial crisis’, that is a big deal.  So I think that is a message that PBOC’s sending that says like risk assets; grow your appetite for risk assets.”

whackamoleThis reminds me of last October when super Fed Hawk James Bullard puked out talk of QE 4 the minute US markets showed something impulsive to the downside.  Turned out (as we noted at the time) that the Semiconductor element of that mini panic was entirely hype and the Dove in drag went away to gather himself, most recently coming back to the mic with his sharp beak and talons and that glaring look in his eyes.

Ha ha ha… now China panics in an effort to soft peddle the rational policy it enacted of allowing shorting of its ‘free’ markets.  We called the ‘China allows shorting’ news non-fundamental hype on Friday and we call the ‘China eases’ news today hype as well.  Though its implications could be felt well beyond a hype burst, if players are indeed compelled to “like risk assets” and to grow their “appetite for risk assets.”

The bottom line is that we are on a long journey toward losing confidence in these policy moles.  Here in the US a cranky and sometimes malcontented website has dubbed the phase Peak Fed ©.

Bulls and bears are getting ground up during the process, which will either resolve up (manic acceleration) or down (cyclical trend change).  But it is a process and by definition a process is “a natural or involuntary series of changes”.  Believe it or not, the process is natural.  In this case it is addressing unnatural things.

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial news & analysis from around the web