Category Archives: Financial Markets

Europe Rising vs. US, but India’s the Thing

By Biiwii

The Hedged Europe ETF (HEDJ) found support vs. (SPY) and the Europe vs. US trade remains a good one.  I took my HEDJ profit because there is resistance congestion coming up by longer-term charts of the Euro STOXX 50, DAX, etc., which are at interim upside targets.

hedj.spy

With respect to the previous post about USD and Euro, it sure looks like ‘so far, so good’ for European stocks in their ‘me too’ play to what the US did with its most recent, and successful* QE  a few years ago.  Because Europe is leveraging currency devaluation, it can only be a play for me.

Continue reading Europe Rising vs. US, but India’s the Thing

Around the Web

By Biiwii

A more annoying ‘around the web’ than usual…

  • Adjusting Barry Ritholtz for inflation and hypocrisy  –IKN  [biiwii comment: a short, sweet and perfect little post exposing b/s in a corner of the internet i don’t normally expect to find it. but then again, it’s everywhere isn’t it?  i am sure in all my years of writing you’ve even found some of it here… and @ IKN and well, everywhere]
  • What Top Fund Managers Really Think About Gold  –Casey Research  [biiwii comment: speaking of bullshit, i’ll go a little IKN on you and present the winner of the b/s olympics, this hilariously titled piece from jeff clark.  jim rickards helped bail out ltcm, wrote books and is a smart guy who i sincerely respect.  but a top fund manager?  really?  now the rest of them… a “wealth coach”, a part newsletter writer/part fund manager and then old pal chris martenson, a “futurist who specializes in energy depletion”… please.  it’s another gold article attempting to make sense of things that seemingly don’t make sense, and that is the answer… it doesn’t make sense but it is what it is.  got that jeff?  i just wrote a post that wondered if the gold promoters were extinct or maybe just tuned out.  they’re not extinct, so hopefully they are well tuned out.  i’d better move on before i get hung up on this one and piss myself off]

 

I Like to Box in Yellow Gox Box Socks

By Biiwii

Hey, I like Dr. Seuss.

The Semiconductors, which has been my favorite sector both for trading and for market indications (with the Biotech a close second) is merrily on its way to the 750 target.  This chart and its target were created as the Semiconductor index was consolidating a ‘Handle’ out of the ridiculous October hysterics (cue Microchip Semi with its idiot management… ‘errr, we are a bellwether and we see a Semi slow down’… FF 2 mos… ‘oh, never mind, business is great!’).  Amazingly, there are only 20 points to target.

sox

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Rummaging for financial news and analysis from around the Web…

  • Gold-CCI & GDX and Gold CoT Improving, But…  –NFTRH  [biiwii comment: hey look, a fledgling rally appears to be getting started, but with PDAC next week the gold bug dream machine could get a bump up again and the sailing beyond the near-term is not yet indicated to be ‘all clear’]
  • We poke a little fun at PDAC, but clicking the graphic yields details of a conference that can actually be taken seriously…

mises

  • Healthcare/Biotech Names Still Dominating  –B.I.G.  [biiwii comment: don’t I know it… did some profit taking last week but also a little replanting within the Bio’s.  The weekly BTK chart has been bullish and until that changes, it’s on a trend]
  • Periphery Fragility List  –Credit Bubble Bulletin  [biiwii comment: i just found doug noland again, so CBB will be back either in ‘around the web’ format or directly published]

 

PDAC 2015

By Biiwii

It’s time for the mining sector’s who’s who to come out, see and be seen, dispense and consume some boilerplate pitches and generally glad hand one another for a few days.

PDAC 2015

pdac
Photo: PDAC

Why, there will even be experts talking about expert things for attendees to consider and be enlightened with, including… “Top newsletter writers present their charts, thoughts and ideas on how to select good investments in the resources sector.”  Ha ha ha.  Otto’s not even going (I assume).

pdac2
Photo: PDAC

Anyway, it is time now to manage the fledgling bounce in the gold sector and to tune out the hype with extreme prejudice.

The gold sector, which is the only mining sector I am interested in right now, has been screwed every which way from Sunday for the last 3+ years and no amount of over intellectualizing or important sounding presentations will change the fact that it needs its macro fundamentals in line or else it will stay in Palooka Ville.

Market Sentiment Sux

By Biiwii

Over at NFTRH we had a pretty extensive subscriber market update, going over targets, risk profiles, etc. for US stocks (and precious metals).  Here is one graph from the update and it is not pretty dear stock market bulls.

indicators
From Sentimentrader

Well, it is pretty I guess if you are a momo oriented Casino player.  But it is not pretty for risk vs. reward players.  While I understand that extreme sentiment goes hand in hand with bullish momo upside (i.e. mania), that does not change the fact that risk vs. reward sucks.

Around the Web

By Biiwii

  • Gathering thin reeds  –Jeff Saut  [biiwii comment; oh jeff, how could you own anything by putnam? oh, they’ve cleaned up their front running act?  i see.  all the same, no thank you…  not that it matters to you, but you are on notice for inclusion in this segment in the future.  putnam?  really?  every time I saw the ‘proud sponsor of the n.e. patriots’ ads this past football season, I wanted to hurl]
  • btw  –Josh Brown
  • HP Warns and Blames the Mighty Greenback  –Across the Curve  [biiwii comment: add hp to the list.  since q4 we have been on watch for the strong dollar dynamic to have some effect in corp. america.  not the end of the world, but an effect]

 

Euro Noise

[edit]  I made an assumption on STOXX vs. SPX based on activity in the European ETFs, but it turns out that STOXX itself did not rise nearly as high.  The basic situation of the chart below remains roughly the same.

Folks, the market was bullish; and by market I mean US, Europe, China, Japan… the whole enchilada.  Why people even bother taking the headlines seriously is beyond me.  All this Greek stuff did was reset sentiment to sustain the bull just as so many hysterics burped up by an unhinged system have done for years now.  They are like a series of jolts to the system.  What’s that thing EMT’s use to try to revive people?

healine
MarketWatch headline

Don’t think in linear terms; it’ll get you killed.  Instead, think about value and long-term term investment in things of value, but at the same time realize what bullish is in the casino.  While I have continued trimming profits on individual US stocks, I have been replanting in others.  I’ll take what the casino gives.

Continue reading Euro Noise

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

[edit]  Might as well add in some of our own $.02 on the yield curve, S&P 500 and gold…  Risk ‘ON’  –NFTRH

 

NFTRH 329 Out Now

nftrh329How to promo… how to promo?  NFTRH 329 took a hard look at the realities of what happened last week and despite an end of week reversal (below SPX key resistance of 2165) it found that at week’s end the bulls and the risk ‘ON’ contingent regained their footing.

Going the other way, the rise in short-term yields vs. long-term yields was gold bearish and not friendly to Team Risk ‘OFF’.

A really good market report doing the work it has to do every step of the way.  Of course we are in the volatile ‘swing baby, swing’ market so we’ll be ready to adjust as always over the coming week.  The key is to be in proper position for when the ‘swing’ phase consolidation ends.