Category Archives: Financial Markets

Obama Ukraine Speech Drops Market?

So is that what went on?  Markets will be back to positive tomorrow?  Well a positive for the gold bugs is that the precious metals did not try to do any popping on Ukraine hype.  They are busy fulfilling downside objectives and it is best they get that done sooner rather than later.

But the interest rate fundamentals must be married with the technicals.  They are interesting today.

In other news, I guess the question of why Europe and Emerging are strong is answered by the ECB and China stimulus hype going around.  I swear, without hype we would not have a financial market.  It’s what makes the (financial) world go round.

Gold’s Macro Fundamentals

Excerpted from the 31 page NFTRH 283 (dated 3.23.14), which also thoroughly analyzed the precious metals and several other markets from a technical standpoint.

Gold’s Macro Fundamentals


This spike in short-term yields (2-year shown) is what harpooned gold last week and finally got it under control.


More importantly, this spike in the 2-year vs. the 30-year really hurt gold.

These spikes predictably came as the FOMC successfully managed to get the market thinking about an end to the damaging Zero Interest Rate Policy, ZIRP.

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Gold Commitments of Traders

Silver’s CoT was bad for a while.  This week, gold’s CoT, which had been degrading steadily, got hammered by the goons into the worst of the corrective hit.  Funny how no word of the CoT data or the over bullish gold bug sentiment showed up in the headlines of the gold websites among all the ‘gold stock breakout!’ and ‘Ukraine bullish for gold’ partying.

[edit] Note that the large specs, many of whom are hedge funds, got longer into the hit.  Tell me again whether these guys are smart money?

Run Gold Bugs, Run!

Finish your ritualistic selling squall so that the rest of us can get about taking this sector forward.  I swear that even though I see things like the Ukraine hype fully in advance I tend not to realize just how consistently this happens.

Gold bug hears Ukraine and ‘Gold Stocks Break Out!’ hype, buys gold stocks.  Gold bug sees gold stocks going down as hype unwinds, sells gold stocks.  WTF guys?


Hear That Sucking Sound?

It’s the sound of what ever fools were stupid enough to buy gold and sell stocks because of the impending Crimea referendum.  It is hard to believe there were too many of them, but I guarantee you there were some.  The ultimate herd members I guess.

If you ever hear an analyst talking about gold as a (non financial) crisis hedge or talking about a political event (no matter how inflammatory) as a reason to sell stocks or buy gold do me a favor and mark down the name and refuse to patronize that analysis in the future.

[edit]  And yes, this compels me to look closely at guest posts going forward, with a more critical eye.

It is good that the market is clearing Crimea now and once we get through Ms. Yellen on Wednesday afternoon maybe we can move through the latest bout of stoopid media stuff and get back on the fundamentals, which remain positive for stocks and the economy and thus, not fully formed for gold just yet.

That could all change next week (read: China, copper, etc.) but as of now any funnymentals associated with Ukraine can hopefully be put behind us.  That includes Russia’s minster of media propaganda going on TV talking about the Russian Bear’s ability to turn the US into dust.

How tawdry this whole thing has been.