The TLT long-term Treasury bond fund is not looking too good technically, by daily chart. The uptrend channel is violated, MACD is getting close to red (0-) and RSI and AROON are already red. Long-term bonds do not like inflation.
Meanwhile, T bond bear TBT has a sneaky bullish look to its daily chart and is on the verge of changing its trend to up (ref. SMA 50).
The big spike in the precious metals, led by silver, prompts not the feel good pumping you will see elsewhere. No, it prompts yet more macro work with some very interesting views noted about the post-2011 time frame. Full geek mode folks. There will be time later to play bull hero.
38 pages and I didn’t even get to a commodities segment. It’s fine because I currently have little interest in that mixed bag of hot money speculations and I have a lot of interest in what’s going on in the precious metals and US and global stock markets.
Happy Father’s Day dads!
A good report this week. Nice and clear and able to define most things pretty well. An exception being a brain dump near the end where the writer simply faces the reality that there are some things happening in the macro that neither he nor likely anyone else, has the ability to fully define. Nor however, do I find the need to define it at this time.
A note from an NFTRH subscriber, who is a sophisticated investor if you catch my drift. He watches the markets intimately and reads, reads and reads some more not taking any one entity as the be all and end all. Reprinted with his permission:
“I give you credit. I listen. I weigh. I believe your position is well argued. I feel many have dog piled and jumped on your work and in many ways have become Johnny come I called this again … and yea, I know you’ve hinted at this and it is what it is… but for fuck’s sake… all these guys are calling for 1080 or lower… and i just don’t buy into the intellectual honesty to it all… point? none. i hope you are adequately compensated for fair level headed calls and i believe you when you say what you say whether or not i agree/disagree.”
The first in what I think will be a line of reports that focuses in on themes for deep summer, as da boyz relax, cashed out and sipping specialty cocktails at sunset in da Hamptins. NFTRH 293 is 35 pages of pure focus on US and global stocks, precious metals and the all important Treasury bonds / interest rate markets.
This may sound like a Captain Obvious post now, but Europe’s pervasive risk ‘ON’ atmosphere was not so obvious last year when NFTRH began tracking the bottoming patterns on the monthly charts of PIIGS members Italy (EWI) and Spain (EWP). Here is the Spanish 10 year bond yield showing an utter lack of fear akin to our own US-centric lust for junk bonds and their diminished yields.
Here is the chart of EWP, now refined to a weekly view.
Here is gold as measured in Euros.
NFTRH 292 was just mailed to subscribers.
Enjoy your Memorial Weekend folks!
Some bigger picture stuff, compliments of NFTRH 291′s opening segment:
By now you know that NFTRH manages macro cycles and does not lather you up with every inflammatory event or short-term market move along the way. We talk about those things sure, but we do not get excited and certainly do not base ongoing analysis on these events because this report is not for day traders, it is for people trying to be in tune with bigger picture cycles.
NFTRH’s first day of operation was September 28, 2008. That was just before an epic crash across asset markets. So the first cycle we were tasked to manage was not a bearish one, but a bullish one since it was painfully obvious what the current backdrop was at the time. And manage a bull cycle we did, coming out of Q4 2008.
291 has just been mailed to subscribers. It breaks little new ground but then again it doesn’t need to. All trends and potential pivots are on track and making sense.