Upon re-reading, it’s another of those posts I sometimes receive critiques about. Few conclusions and no clear direction. Maybe that is just the point though.
And there they go, conventional lemmings jumping from the frying pan, into the fire, soon to realize the fire is way too hot, and heading for that cliff over there.
(B)ut (i)t i(s) (w)hat (i)t (i)s and (N)otes (F)rom (T)he (R)abbit (H)ole are so named because we are all about anti-convention, as global markets have not been comfortably conventional since the late 1990’s, I think. This most recent cycle has existed to put all of us malcontents, cranks and alarmists back in a box under the bed, if not into the dustbin of history.
Well today, conventional sheep are flocking to conventional positions. “Bond safety” is what they run to when they are afraid of stocks. Of course, with gold now showing strength, the promoters over there are retooling their former “China/India demand” and “employment growth will spur inflation, which will drive people to gold” pitches to something more appropriate for the times, when global economic contraction comes to the fore and deflation is front page news.
Imagine that, investors flocking to bonds while DEFLATION! is all up in the headlines. Reminds me of Q4 2008, just before the next INFLATION.
This market is now officially fun again after the post-October drudgery that last month forced me to admit that my trading sucks and that I needed to take a time out and sit on my hands (as the market’s swings became too frequent and too contracted).
Do you see? Investors are seeking safety in bonds. Media are managing a global stock crash. Bull trend followers’ heads are spinning (‘Am I still a brave, resolute, trend following stock bull? Should I keep posting as such or is my inner fear barometer stronger than my resolve?’) and oh yes, the precious metals are bouncing while commodities continue to tank.
There are only a few entities who have called this environment. One is an influence of mine, Bob Hoye (decisively, but on what some might find an inconveniently long time frame). Another is NFTRH (less decisively, but on a very tight time frame). This is a market that is going to put all the carnival barkers (including gold touts) in their rightful places because now changes are happening and it will not be so simple as ‘stocks are tanking, buy bonds!’ and obviously, the whole ‘economy brings inflation, buy gold!’ promo.
Tops are spinning on the table and it all makes perfect sense. And I am not even a stock market bear. I just do not buy or hold tops. I look forward to a real bull market in the gold sector, but there is yet work to do folks. The US market’s big trend is still up and gold’s is still down. Not saying change is not in the offing, just saying trends have not yet changed.
With respect to gold, this summer’s event is so much more in line with fundamentals that matter than last summer’s Ukraine→Russia→Ebola pitch that was nothing more than promotion. But there remain some rocks beneath the surface.
As to the article linked above, this certainly does put Martin Armstrong front and center, with his ‘final flight to the safety of the government bond bubble’ analysis…
LONDON (Reuters) – Equity outflows hit a 15-week high of $8.3 billion in the past week, with fears of a China-driven global economic crisis pushing investors towards safe-haven money-market funds and Treasuries, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday.
I have not really known what to make of Marty and his computer, but this is 100% in line with his forecast.
I just love a market where things are in motion. Robo market was a dead thing, momentum waning and hopes fading. Now resolution is to the downside. From this point, it is now time to throw out the easy analysis and be prepared for the counter-cyclical environment we have expected upon completion of the post-2008 economic recovery (and all that paper and all those digits behind it).
Now you do not get points for just showing up and following the trend. Now you find out if that which you hold true actually is.