Remember my inner conflict (short lived though it was) about whether to sell this rocket?
Well, we have a lesson in here somewhere…
Unlike that crashing pump and dump from SeekingAlpha that I posed about, OncoMed is settling in a nice flag-like pattern. So much so that I’ve put it back on watch.
Whether they are domestic or global. I have pared back, taking profits and limited losses as necessary. I am still holding a few year end speculations, but I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that a macro shift is readying. It could take a few months to play out, but the US stock market is likely to provide heartbreak for anyone playing it sincerely as a secular bull market, like the public.
One can read a target of 600 to 650 into this chart. One can do that but I am selling it at resistance and taking 8%.
The question I have is whether the countdown is days, weeks or months. If it tops out in days or weeks I’d expect a topping process that could take the majority or all of 2014. If it accelerates for the next few months to what looks like a parabolic (silver-like) blow off, then the top could take the form of a sharp reversal. Either way risk vs. reward is no good on the US market. I write this as someone still playing this thing, but with eyes open.
Given that iPad and iPhone are no longer the gizmos to have and that a pack of companies are encroaching on Apple’s territory, I don’t look at the company the same way I used to (although I still love my iMac, which has served me impeccably for 5 years now with never so much as a hiccup).
This morning there is some China Mobile news for iPhone. Excellent. I hold AAPL along with MSFT (INTC was sold for a small loss after its 2014 guidance was a stinker, although I plan to buy INTC back after it settles, broad market willing) as old guard tech giants. Here is the weekly chart of AAPL with a measurement to 650.
FB has crept above the down trend line. Since I am leaning toward a bullish resumption on the stock market I have got to think about the possibility that momentum crap like this may have led today’s mini market correction and may be trying to lead a new phase of speculation. Regardless, rules are rules. Loss would be very limited if this thing does not get right back below that line soon.
OncoMed is now up 126% today. I believe that the news was very good news and nothing like the boiler room style hype going on in Atrium last week (it’s crashed by the way). Still, the profit is now 145% and I’m taking the rest of it. There are enough questions in the Celgene pipeline acquisition news for me to call it fully valued considering the unknowns with cancer drugs that are still in development. Could be a massive home run one day or could be a dud. What it is today is a huge profit, booked.