I sold half of my INTC position so as not to be greedy, but am going to hold the other half for a run at the target. This has been a fabulous NFTRH+ trade. There have also been some clunkers (PPLT, CCJ, JNPR) with losses limited, some aborts (SIMG, LSCC, SLV) as funda or technicals changed before buy targets activated and a few decently profitable (CORN, LIT, DBB, SNY, CTRL, SQQQ) ones. Also, BBRY put on a bearish engulfing candle today after my little show of bravado yesterday. Still holding that one. Anyway, here’s Intel improbably enough steaming toward target in a near vertical manner.
I ended up swapping out GOOGL for CTRL, which was bought yesterday on a potential bottom scenario. A mega tech stock of high quality for a company in a market that I am not overly excited about, trying to grab some of the ‘internet of things’ (IoT) hype out there.
It is probably a gap fill play around 17 with a stop below the August lows. CTRL got beat up on earnings as it is pretty richly valued, but the company also has acquisition hype surrounding it (like Google or Apple with respect to the IoT). We’ll see.
“We rate BLACKBERRY LTD (BBRY) a SELL. This is driven by a few notable weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company’s weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself.” –TheStreet.com
Really TheStreet.com? A sell after the stock has already been bombed out for the reasons you cite? Really? What were you saying about it at $140 or even $70 a share? Was it a sell then? Seriously, I don’t know and don’t have the time or inclination to look. But I’d have my doubts TSC that you were calling ‘sell’ back then.
NFTRH+ had a completely different view the other day. Of course, it was a technical view, not a fundamental one. BBRY is a turnaround play with John Chen at the helm. Indeed, now we find out that they are segregating the future from the past as the re-branding of this device dinosaur moves ahead.
Needless to say, today’s activity is thus far on the plan we laid out by daily and weekly charts in that + update (not linked because it is password protected). Here’s the daily chart from that update, although the weekly is even more interesting in its message.
It’s probably getting about time to take the profit on this one. It’s only 4.5% but it’s my largest single stock position. As noted previously, I have a few fundamental longs, a chart long (bull flag) on a Semi stock and Mr. Bounce Long, Google. It’s always fun when people perceived as bearish like me do their buying amidst bull pukage and it works out.
GOOGL is probably going to boink the lower wedge line, but I may think about profit taking soon. In this racket you never know. When I covered the shorts on EWP, SPY and sold FAZ, I thought I might be leaving something on the table from the short side. Well, no not really. It was a good time to dump the shorts. Now I have the same thing going on with Google here, in reverse. Got to love the markets.  Though a look at the weekly chart and a comparison to the QQQ makes me think twice… dohhh! Be decisive Gary! Well, it’s a free site and thus I am not paid for decisiveness here.
Funny thing about the market; I’ve had this potential 17,500 target on the Dow since early in the year as it formed a bullish Ascending Triangle on this weekly chart we review often in NFTRH. Then the recent mini correction dropped it hard and I felt a little twinge of embarrassment about this chart. Now? Not so much.
This is what happens when market bounces extend off of corrections that came about amidst b/s like the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine tension (i.e. things that have nothing to do with the US stock market other than resetting over bullish sentiment to a healthier state). These bounce backs tend to fix technicals. The market can turn and drop tomorrow, but as of 3:00 on Tuesday, the Dow’s weekly technicals (if you discount MACD) are intact and targeting 17,500.
Okay, here’s the last one of these short-term casino patron updates. I’ve got more important things to keep track of like that short against DSLV, which is testing its limits this morning. SPX 60 minute view…
- Initial objective (targeted back when the average bull was supposedly worrying about Ukraine and Russia) of 1950-1960 (resistance, now tentative support) is in the books.
- Gap is filled.
- Pattern measurement still resides above.
- Typical of these rallies off of bull market corrections, they tend to test to the will of bears so that even those with the most conviction that this is finally the big one, will have a good amount of doubt, Soros Put position or not.
- I have no such conviction, and instead resolve to go with what the market says.
Well what do you know? Guess who’s trying to break the resistance zone, get to the gap and possibly even the pattern measurement? Why, none other than the SPX, fueled by easing Russia-Ukraine tensions according to this headline (try not to get startled when the picture jumps out at you).  They wisely dropped said picture down to the middle of the article.
For all you casino patrons keeping score of the short-term squiggles at home (okay, I admit it, when it comes to the US stock market I am a casino patron too ).
This thing is significantly higher than where I covered my SPY short so… so far so good. It would appear that the pattern neckline – which SPX resides above after dropping through – would be a key. Resistance is a viable candidate to stop the bounce, but as long as SPX is above the neckline so too I guess, are the gap and pattern measurement.
Updating the status of the 60 minute chart we observe the following…
- The anticipated resistance zone has been acheived.
- The gap and bottoming pattern measured target are higher.
- RSI is getting over bought (remember, this is just a 60 min. chart) so some disturbance can come about at the resistance zone.
- But the gap and 1980+ levels remain viable.
- Hey, it’s what the 60 min. chart says.
 Simple chart update turns opinionated [separate the two, as needed]… and the title is changed from ‘US Stock Market’ to reflect said opinions.
The first chart shows the progress the SPX is making on our 60 minute view. It turned up above the support level noted a couple days ago and is now logically dwelling at the pattern neckline. This is still bullish obviously, having made a higher high. Resistance and the measured target (blue arrow) are noted.
Switching to daily charts, the SOX is in a bullish looking short-term pattern, turning up from the first level of support in a zone we had labeled a ‘hot air’ zone (i.e. little support from 640 on down). A healthy and significant correction would take SOX to 560 at least. Two resistance levels shown in red will decide whether that is possible in the near term. I still hold Intel for fundamental reasons and a technical target, along with a chart buy on another Semi stock that will remain nameless because if its chart changes (from its current bull flag) it will be sold with no questions asked.
With the help of at least one MSM headline, the bounce looks to continue, as anticipated. Clicking the graphic yields the
bearish bullish story.
Here is how the S&P 500 closed yesterday, with a bullish looking flag settling down toward a visual support level that would be about a 50% retrace of the first up leg (again, this is a 60 min. view, not a daily, so everything’s compacted). The potential is that a bottoming pattern is still forming.