Category Archives: Stock Market

Some Ugly Charts

[edit] My apologies, the SPX is not at a lower low.  Razor thin though it may be, it maintains a higher low right at the key SMA 200.

For your viewing pleasure here are some of the uglier items littering our fine and sound financial markets, so organically rising on natural fundamentals these last couple of years.  Here are some stocks…

fb

googl

gm

And a couple indexes…

rut

spx

Now, the bears have seen this movie before.  For instance, the DOW made a lower low last October and what did it do?  It ripped shorts’ heads off into year-end.  But still, there sits the venerable S&P 500 below the August low.

Here one conjures up the charts that I shall not brow beat you with again (for this week anyway ;-) ) that show S&P 500 in utter lock step with policy effects and having well-outpaced corporate profits into over valuation.  One also looks around and sees a landscape littered with charts that look like the first 3 above.

SOX on KEY Support Test

[edit] A reader kindly advised that MCHP has warned not only on itself, but on the entire industry, with a problem being China.  Sounds good, except that I spoke directly with my Semi Equipment industry contact, who had differing information from the early cycle Equip. guys (details have to be reserved for the NFTRH update that followed).  This was the same contact whose information got us on the Semi→ISM→Jobs continuum beginning in January of 2013.  Lots to make sense of going forward.

Folks, here we go.  The Semiconductor index, which was our leader post-2012 is finally testing the 560 breakout area.  This could well be the decider between bull market failure (less favored, for now) and a next big leg up.  We’ll let shorter-term technicals decide.  But this is very important…

sox

[edit] For reference, here is what it looks like on a daily chart.  If anyone knows of any news in the industry, please use the Contact link above.  Meanwhile, I’ll scrounge around too.

sox.daily

Semiconductors Monthly

Checking back in on the view of a post-2012 leader, the semiconductors with a monthly chart of the SOX.

sox

We had noted for months that the index was creeping up the top of the Bollinger Band for the first time since before its epic blow off in 1999.  This month it is falling away from the top of the BB with the monthly EMA 10 right there as would-be support.  If it were to drop to the middle of the BB however, that would constitute a test of the long-term breakout.

FB = Fall Back?

Could Facebook and its 37 forward PE fall back here?  If you look closely you can see it making a hint to lose a wedge line (still above the MA 50 though).  Support is noted at around 72.

I know this is a stock of a highly critical company allowing scores of regular people you pretend are your friends to show pictures of their food and make stupid political statements, but still.  The chart is not the greatest.

fb

Market Leaders Abdicating

The Russell 2000 obviously has an ugly topping pattern.  It has long since nudged to a lower low to the August low and now has eased below March and January.  If it holds below the line this thing will be in a bear trend.  The bears should hope that TA geniuses do not come out and blow horn the DEATH CROSS!!! of the MA’s 50 and 200, which is a Red Herring.  The chart is bearish enough without the help of that hype.

rut

Anyway, RUT was a leader to the upside on this most intense bull market phase, which has been the post-2012 period and that leader is starting to lose its bull market.

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Wild SPY Ride

I took some puts on the SPY on Friday’s b/s joy fest and woke up on Monday ready to see red… in the markets.  Instead, what I saw was index futures up 1%+.  I saw red alright.  But I held on because yesterday just didn’t feel right.  It felt like a bull trap.  Here’s the wild ride in the SPY puts I held *.

spy.put

* I say “held” because not being a river boat gambler (or even a particularly good trader lately) I took the flash profit this morning.  I hold a few other less dangerous bear positions pending the October view, which I am nowhere near convinced will remain bearish.

Also, I know this was not called publicly so feel free to disregard it.  This is not a site for casino calls anyway.  There are plenty of those out there. 

NFTRH+; Goodbye Intel

For me, more longs have been not working than working lately.  That is another sign of the market’s deterioration.  So most longs are now sold and that includes Intel, which may lose support today if the current market negativity keeps up.  Taking the profit on the half a position I did not sell previously.  I still very much like Intel’s story, just not its stock for now; just not much of any stock right now.  The market’s sponsorship indicators are giving a warning.  If they reverse, I’ll reverse.

intc