Uhhhg, I just realized FTEK got pumped today at the Moneyshow.com. Hence, partial profit is now booked.
An un-sexy cleaner coal technology company and an in-flight WiFi company with a really unfortunate name. Very different companies, same result. Fuel Tech now joins GOGO in having broken out of a bullish falling wedge. Both of these positions, incidentally, were increased on pullbacks since they were first highlighted last week.
FTEK launches today…
GOGO is a simple chart speculation and continues to just meander along outside the wedge, but still looks constructive to me.
Below are a couple clips from NFTRH 9, dated November 22, 2008. I only show this because contrary to my current tone, I am not a perma bear. Really, truly. I am just a perhaps overly intense big picture risk vs. reward manager. ← And I’ll readily admit that can be worked on, fine tuned or whatever.
But in November of 2008 NFTRH had this to say about the Dow, given that everyone was convinced of deflation, depression and the end of the world as we knew it…
Later in the ‘Wrap Up’ segment this appeared (click to enlarge):
Nothing has really changed in the 5+ years since, other than the thing has been flipped over on its head. No one can control timing, mass emotion or any other market dynamics. If/as the market breaks upward I am going to have some fun. But for good measure it will pay to keep the idea of equals, opposites and things in the mirror in mind.
Risk vs. Reward S.U.C.K.S.
Hey, have a good and bullish weekend!
 Will ya look at the helium escaping from that thing?
After yesterday’s overly serious mental exploration into the markets it is time to lighten up again. After all, the most fun I have is in taking a break from the macro with stuff like this. So even dour and droning bearish bloggers get to have fun. At least this one does.
FTEK (Fuel Tech), which I first came upon early last decade, had a nice earnings fueled ramp in November. I of course sold the big gap up and watched the momo take over. I even thought I’d short it if it hit 10 (much like I shorted former holding DDD after it went way too far). But it didn’t quite get there and I have just had it on radar ever since, recently buying it back at 6.20.
FTEK is declining within a big wedge on volume that had been diminishing until it popped earlier this month on what may have been its last washout low. That is as yet undetermined because it has not broken the wedge. But it is getting close. Earnings are out soon and may have something to say about which way this thing breaks. But so far, so good.
Now for the new, a stock who’s symbol just sounds like bad luck. But as a pure chart speculation for a trade, I am taking a flier on it.
This one has I guess you would say meandered out of its wedge. It is another one I have had on watch for a long while. It was added this morning.
Two totally different companies (a cleaner coal play and an in-flight WiFi play) with similar post run up consolidations that look like falling wedges. I have familiarity with FTEK and none with GOGO. So the latter will at least, be kept on a short leash.
1929 Crash Analog? That was so February 21, 2014. This morning MarketWatch has a headline that can neuter the bullish effects of the Analog and its brethren that have littered the media at the slightest hint of trouble in the stock market. This gives me more bearish feelings than any red futures would on any given day. The market eats those for breakfast.
Meanwhile, the dumb money is lapping it up again…
And I continue to love the quiet beauty of this chart…
Still not a word about it outside of this little corner of the interwebs. Nice and quiet… ssshhhh…
If the monthly chart of the COMP is to be believed, 4% is the ‘reward’ side of the risk/reward equation in tech stocks. COMP could gobble that up in 3 days.
Bulls have surely won. The market has gone much higher than I for one thought it would when I got bullish on its prospects in late 2012. Much higher; but then I am not a bubble chasing momo. I am a conservative player with a negative view of the mechanics that have produced this bubble. Still, there is no use denying its reality.
Over in the Land of the Sinking Currency the Nikkei popped above resistance yesterday while its whipping boy in the mirror, Johnny Yen, also showed strength and held support.
Nikkei and Yen daily, from NFTRH 278
One signal is real and one is Memorex. The Nikkei and Yen correlation is likely to go back to inverse before long as policy makers attempt to use inflationary manipulation of the currency to spur asset market prices.
A bear case of some magnitude was partially indicated by TLT-SPY breaking out of a falling wedge pattern in January. It then zoomed up too fast (as players got over bearish too quickly) to the 200 day moving averages. Unsurprisingly, the stock market bull regenerated and tamped the bearishness down but good.
For the bear case to regenerate now, TLT-SPY (along with many other would-be bear indicators) needs to turn up. It is at a logical support point at the 50 day averages. The rest is now up to the herd.