Category Archives: Uncategorized

In the Subway – The Bats

I have taken some time to finally comb through my old CD’s and get the good ones onto iTunes.  In my travels I came across my old Bats CD’s and feel like I just reconnected with an old friend.  I was surprised to find out they are still around and sounding as great as ever.  Here’s the cutest little rock band of all time playing In the Subway.

40 Years

I have been waiting the better part of a lifetime for this.  I’m from Boston, love the Patriots and Red Sox and until today, like the Bruins well enough I guess.  But now, I have some ghosts from the past to vanquish.  Rangers and Bruins finally meet in the playoffs.  Disclosure:  I am not a NY sports fan at all.  Absolutely hate the Jets, Giants and especially the Yankees.  But somehow through a quirk of nature I became a life-long Ranger fan.  LET’S GO RANGERS!!

ISM Hot off the Presses

Keep inflating Ben.  Eventually the public is going to catch on.  There is no Goldilocks.


A Stock Market Big Picture

Here is a simply beautiful chart from NFTRH 227.  It shows that the current rally, while stretched price-wise, may have more time before it rolls over for real.

S&P 500 monthly chart

Was this week’s down spike all the market needed to refuel for fresh upside?  I am not nearly convinced, but we’ll know shortly.  Here is a weekly chart we have been using that clearly shows uninterrupted higher highs and higher lows, which by definition have kept the bull in force since early 2009.

S&P 500 weekly chart

A decline to another ‘higher low’ would be the healthy thing for SPX to do, as it would purge the momo’s for a run to upside measured targets.  Does the market care about healthy or is a Bernanke-fueled bubble about to foment?

Au & Ag CoT Data Out

NFTRH 226:  “Want to bet that each of these pictures improved on last week’s wipeout?”

Well look at those large spec’s shorting gold.  Look at the commercials covering.  And some pretty big price damage happened subsequent to this data release so we might surmise that the CoT improved even more over the last few days.

au cot
Au CoT data courtesy CFTC
Ag CoT data courtesy CFTC


Au-Cu, Au-WTIC & Au-SPX

The US Fed is pumping the money supply and trying to manage the unmanageable.  There is now ‘QE exit’ hand wringing at each FOMC meeting, which comes out later in the minutes as the markets hang on every fretting statement that these policy clerks utter.  Then the jawbones come out and talk nicey nice in the media and the market calms down.

They are not going to be able to manage this to anything other than a very sad outcome.  They actually seem to think that policy making is bigger than the market and the economy.  But it isn’t.

We are in an economic contraction and even after gold has been blown up, its ratio to the 3 Amigos of positive economic correlation continues to indicate the counter cycle.

Gold ratios to copper, oil & stocks

Gold bugs need to be really careful here.  There is still bottom calling going on and it is best not to root root root for the home team in any kind of a speculative casino patron type manner because the precious metals may have entered the realm of macro economic indicator and exited the realm of near term profit play.

The destruction in gold and gold stocks along with the now pronounced weakness in key commodities like copper and oil bring the prospect of deflation front and center, or rather the prospect that the inflation is not taking in economically sensitive materials and resources.

Yesterday the St. Louis Fed updated the Monetary Base data and it is still boinking upward.

Adjusted Monetary Base, updated 2.21.13

But then the dBoys would immediately produce this picture for contrast…

M2 Velocity

We are in an economic contraction and they are still inflating against it.  The big question – the one for all the marbles – is ‘is it deflation first and then hyperinflation or the other way around?’

I cannot shake the feeling that what the precious metals and now commodities are indicating is much darker than what the pom pom waving gold bug community may believe.  It’s an economic contraction and that is the only environment that the accursed gold mining sector has a chance to thrive.

But in that scenario they go down first.  And boy have they been going down.  They may have bottomed and they may not.  I have refused to bottom call a thing since HUI lost 460’s parameter to normalcy.  I’ll just keep it that way, pending what any new data points that any coming bounces may produce.

But a bigger question is what are the PM’s forecasting?  People need to get that answered right.

Stock Market vs. Gold

The stock market vs. gold (SPY-GLD ratio) has a measured target significantly higher by this big picture monthly chart.
SPY-GLD Ratio, Monthly

But it is very over bought by the daily view, which also can be interpreted to be at an interim target at the least.
SPY-GLD Ratio, Daily

Yes, I get it that the crusty old gold bugs are an anachronism and life is all about texting, tweeting and buying all the stuff advertised on idiotic super bowl commercials.  I get it that the stock market is filling up with all the fools that never saw the financial crisis coming and are now relieved that it is finally in the rear view mirror.

I get it that all those hedge funds that chased gold have realized the error of their ways.  The crisis is over, there is no inflation.  They were the screw balls that messed up the CoTs and gave us the biggest warnings by the way.  Better these low lifes are flushed.  I get it.

Protected: NFTRH Interim Update 2.19.13, HUI

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Come Back – Foo Fighters

Simply because I learned the main riff yesterday and cannot get it out of my head today.  😉