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Gold Stocks Puking

From an NFTRH update earlier this week:

“I will gladly be a contrary indicator with the continued caution against bottom calling.  But a breakdown in the gold stocks and continued weakness in gold would not only kill the bottoming case, but start the clock ticking on the stock market’s bull termination, as one of several indicators.

So have they stopped bottom calling yet in gold bug land?  I ask because the sector may not bottom until they do.”

Not sure about the bottom calling, but as of an email received last night Mr. Gold has joined forces with the King of all Newsletters in telling gold bugs to hold firm, hold the line and “not be hoodwinked by these demonic sociopath bankster gold banks”.

That kind of emotion and hyperbole does nobody any good.  Turning it into an indicator, does this still need to be puked out or is today a capitulation?  HUI’s loss of 460 was a long time ago and that was when gold bugs who think for themselves should have been amp’ing up the risk management.

Japanese Yen Shown 2 Ways

The weekly chart of the Japanese Yen targeted the downside.

yen.wk

Yen Weekly Chart

The daily Yen chart shows divergence to a would-be bottom.

yen.day

Yen Daily Chart

The caveat is a question:  How often do hysterical, globally significant currency or asset market events come right to a target, make divergences and obediently follow through?

[edit] Adding monthly view for more perspective.  Projected above is a strong short covering rally.  Ultimate downside should eventually reach 98 or below.

yen.mo

Yen Monthly Chart

CFTC Au/Ag CoT Data Out

The spec’s were less brave on gold while the goons covered.  The spec’s were braver on silver while the goons shorted.  So I guess I like gold better than silver for a while and I guess I am hedging in alignment with that.  I don’t fight the goons.  I try to wait them out and be alive when the time comes to capitalize.

au.cot

ag.cot

One wonders if this is an indicator of a liquidity blip to come.  Well by one wonders I mean one crazy blogger who sloshes around in these indicators looking for clues.  Are T bonds over sold enough for a counter trend bounce?  Will this coincide with a Yen recovery?  What about junk bonds?  Is that ding over the last few days real or Memorex?

Japanese Yen Approaching Target

The Currency Shares ETF is dropping hard and I still think Yen could be setting up for a hard relief bounce at or just above the measured H&S target.  That is because a) the H&S would be technically satisfied, b) the Japanese markets are thus far operating on jawboning more than anything and c) every momo hedge fund jock on the planet is probably short the Yen.

fxy

Bigger picture, Yen continues to look like the USD with about a decade stagger.

usd.yen

TSX Venture Updated

It is probably worth keeping an eye on this speculative playground from Canada.  Most of the smart resources people have all but given up on this area due to so many scam stocks and so much legacy financing from the previous bull cycle.

But the chart says that the red dotted resistance line and the red weekly EMA 20 are being dealt with now, amid some modest bullish divergence by MACD and RSI.  It would be interesting to see if CDNX can get over this resistance and get a party started.

cdnx

Personally, I’d prefer sounder commodity exposure than lottery tickets, but…

Gold on the Ceiling

Gold on the Ceiling by the Black Keys:

They wanna get my…
They wanna get my
Gold on the ceiling
I ain’t blind
Just a matter of time
Before you steal it
It’s alright
Ain’t no guard in my house

Except this week gold fell on the floor.  No biggie.  All in week’s worth of policy maker bullshit.

BTW, here’s the CoT data…

au cot

ag cot

Have a good weekend.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

christmasThank you for your readership this year.  I look forward to really kicking it in for 2013 as I continue to get comfortable with the new site.  It is going to be an interesting and potentially rewarding year, though maybe not from the bullish side in all regards. Whatever it is, it is…

A special thank you to NFTRH subscribers for your continued confidence in me despite the extended ‘risk’ mode and lack of actionable data points we have experienced more often than not with the precious metals over the last year.  That worm will turn, and we will stay on top of the bigger global themes that are in play as well.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all and in whatever way you celebrate, enjoy.  The markets will still be here when we return.

 

NFTRH Interim Update 12.21.12

The gold and silver CoT data improved this week as expected.  Here is the post in case you are not accessing the site today.

Gold and Silver CoT…

I wonder if yesterday’s hard drop allowed more shorts to cover and improve the CoT even more.  Regardless, we are going in the right direction with gold bug sentiment where we want it, the media routinely spouting ridiculous things about gold and the HUI-Gold ratio still constructive.

There is bound to be chop (code for the bottom making may still apply) going forward, but I really am starting to feel quite good about the sector again with its proximity to support levels, the CoT improving and of course that pesky HUI-Gold ratio.

Best to you for your pre-Christmas weekend.