Who would have thought that you could stow cash away in a safer equivalent (1-3 year US Treasury bonds), keep your principal, add asset value and get monthly income? Well that’s what my primary cash ‘equiv.’ is doing now that the bull fantasy of organic economic growth seems to be coming unglued or is at least getting a righteous adjustment. Of course the likes of SHY could eventually be secondary to a certain pretty, heavy and much reviled elemental relic in this atmosphere.
Since we noted a couple weeks ago that the TIP fund was trying to put in a short-term bottom, it ground around but continued upward. Of course, with the smell of risk ‘off’ in the air, TLT has gone up even better lately.
What I find pretty cool is the inverse nature of TIP-TLT and USD (UUP) in the lower panels. We are still on the potential ‘inflation trade’ (anti-USD) bounce theme but it is safe to say that for it to get going, TIP-TLT would need start climbing. I have some TIP and STIP to go along with SHY as part of my ‘cash equiv.’ but think of it more as an indicator.
I sold all of my longer term Treasury bonds at the first level of support in anticipation of this bounce in yields. The bonds had returned some good principle gains along with a month or two of dividends. I am wondering now if the bounce in yields is finishing up and maybe the bonds might be favorable again.
So we have this big party atmosphere, spurred on by Mr. Draghi and the omnipresent US disgrace called ZIRP. But for a day at least, players are looking like they are risk ‘OFF’ when viewed through the bond market’s lens.
Not only are yields down (T bonds up), but the 2 year yield is down heartily. Normally a stock market pump sucks them right out of the short end and into risk markets. The curve is rising as rates drop.
As I said in the previous post, this year is gonna be interesting. In fact, it already is; very much so.
The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293’s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.
US Treasury Bonds
Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the ‘Great Rotation’ (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds.
The 30-year ‘Continuum’ view above makes the simple case that players had to be put offside believing in the ‘Great Rotation’ at 4% yields. The nearly half-year decline since then has now satisfied the chart as yields have come to our 3.1% to 3.2% target range, where there is support.
Today the yield curve rises again as short term yields decline faster, with the implication by today’s snapshot being that players are on a little risk ‘OFF’ twitch. It’s just another single day in a vacuum here in the casino, but its implication – if one were to extrapolate – is gold positive. From Bloomberg…
The casino is in operation day after day, week after week… yield curve up, yield curve down… markets up, markets down. Wax is on today and the yield curve is down. Funny how it was up yesterday with declining yields and it is down today with rising yields. Hey, it’s all good and it all makes sense in the casino that Bernanke built (or rebuilt after Greenspan’s fell apart).
At some point this will start getting positive for gold and maybe not so good for the risk ‘ON’ trade. Here is the curve rising again today as people pile drive into short term bonds more quickly than long term ones. Bunch of crack freaks if you ask me; risk ‘ON’, risk ‘OFF’ and on and on. Life in a casino.