Category Archives: Us Treasury Bonds

10-2 Yield Curve Flips

I don’t want to became a yield curve play-by-play announcer, but the spread flipped this morning in a lurch toward risk ‘off’ as yields drop with the 2′s dropping more.  What’s it mean?  Hey, these are manic, over played, over stimulated markets.  It means what it means… for this little moment in time.  I am just the play-by-play guy, not your Swami.  :-)

10.2.yields

10.2 spread from Bloomberg

10-2 Yield Spread Down Again

The 10 vs. 2 is, you guessed it, unfavorable for gold once again as it has been for a week now.  The declining spread (2′s up harder than 10′s) indicates that risk is coming back ‘ON’ in the markets as people dump their liquidity safe havens in the 1-3 year realm.*

10.2.yields

10yr – 2yr yield spread from Bloomberg

The good news for gold – should risk go ‘off’ again – is that it is no longer part of the ‘all one market’ syndrome.  It’s a risk ‘OFF’ item, which is what it should be.  Tune out the myriad rationalizations by conspiracy detectives and realize that gold is going nowhere until a counter cycle is indicated.

Continue reading

So Tell Me…

Where was the only place on the internet (or in finance in general for that matter) that you saw a down arrow placed on the 30 year yield amidst all the hoopla about a great rotation out of bonds and into stocks, with it being only a matter of time before yields went much higher?

That’s what I thought.  Oh but wait, charts don’t work they say.

I’ve got the Continuum declining to about 3% to 3.2% or so before reversal.

tyx

Yield Curve Snapshot

Again with the disclaimer not to take one day’s reading in a Hoover… the curve is dropping with yields positive, which could favor a stock bounce and is theoretically not gold positive (yeh, I know it’s up pretty good in pre).

10.2.yields

10yr & 2yr yields from Bloomberg

Oh and regarding stocks, this headline doesn’t hurt either…

marketwatch