Juniper Flops

A post yesterday promo’ing NFTRH+ said “JNPR has only just now started to do something after I’ve sat upon it for a couple weeks (with the SMA 200 roughly my tolerance point).”

Tolerance point is violated and a loss is forthcoming.  So if I am going to promo you the positives I am going to doubly promo the fact that losses will occur.  The JNPR trade was actually the product of a weekly chart, which was flagging down to support.  The chart is cooked today if this morning’s drop holds up.

Just an FYI since this is a place that is going to admit its mistakes even as it touts its positives.

Semiconductor Sector’s Excitement Continues

Dialing back to January of 2013, I am looking for clues about the coming phase for the economy, mostly as an input into whether or not I can think about turning bullish on gold again (here we remind you again of gold’s best investment case, which is counter not pro cyclical).

The answer, from a contact in the Semiconductor sector (AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, etc.) food chain was that the Semi equipment companies, which we called “canaries on the [economic] coal mine”, were ramping up and thus NFTRH’s view became bullish for the economy, at least short-term.

When this information was combined with the following chart of the Palladium-Gold ratio, which had proven a good economic backdrop indicator, the case for a firm economic phase was even stronger.  Then followed a string of strong ISM data, a stabilizing ‘jobs’ picture and voila, here we are in Bull Party Central with trend followers everywhere looking good and touting to cement their reputations.  But I digress…

pall.gold

Here is the monthly view of PALL-Gold showing that the economy may not be done yet, although the break above resistance (now support) is still very tentative…

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FXI, a Pre NFTRH+ Highlight

NFTRH+ is really nothing more than an effort to formalize a less important aspect of the entire NFTRH service, which is macro market management through a 25-35 page weekly report and in-week updates, along with individual equity highlights when I feel a good risk/reward setup and/or like what I see on a chart.

Before NFTRH+ and before the current crop of ‘Buy China! Buy Emerging’ callers emerged, there was the NFTRH highlight so many weeks ago in an ETF update showing what looked like an Inverted H&S bottoming pattern.  It’s target by the way and FYI, is 40.  I already took my profit on the vehicle I used (TDF), but the FXI target is alive and well; and it’s closing in.

Here’s the updated chart, untouched from that update.

fxi

NFTRH+ Today

Not bad for a service by someone who some people consider a perma bear.  ;-)

Note, any of these can be sold at any time at or below NFTRH+ targets.  So it’s more of a public promo than any sort of public reco.  JNPR has only just now started to do something after I’ve sat upon it for a couple weeks (with the SMA 200 roughly my tolerance point).  INTC I’ve talked at length about already and DBB is just a short term trade as I am not base metals bull.

The shaded areas show where each was highlighted.

jnpr.intc.dbb

Update on Email Issue

Dear 3-5 subscribers who may not have not received NFTRH 300.  It appears to be a problem with your Optonline per…

Google tried to deliver your message, but it was rejected by the server for the recipient domain optonline.net by mx2.optonline.net. [167.206.4.79].

The same also happened when I tried to contact you using the ‘gt’ address using a Comcast SMTP.

Please contact Optonline regarding this issue.  I can receive mail from you so pop me a note with any info you get.  Thank you!

One More Hump?

Last Friday after the geopolitical mini hysteria on Thursday I noted how I refused to buy any bearishness on the stock market during a negative flash point that had absolutely nothing to do with market fundamentals.  The charts had remained unbroken and sure enough Friday was positive, yesterday was nothing and today the US market is green pre-open.

All this with end of the world headlines cranked out by the MSM.  Today that changes a bit (clicking the graphic yields the article, which I have not read yet since the headline is what this post is concerned with)…

headline

7.22.14 pre-market headline from Market Watch

I’d be pissed had I shorted on Thursday.  Indeed, after starting out the year having my best gains come from the short side it has been a long stretch to the current moment where any shorting done has eroded overall gains.

Going forward NFTRH has two options going…

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Setting the Stage for the Next Collapse

Guest Post by Steve Saville

When the central bank pumps money into the economy and suppresses interest rates it creates incentives to speculate and invest in ways that would not otherwise be viable. At a superficial level the central bank’s strategy will often seem valid, because the increased speculating and investing prompted by the monetary stimulus will temporarily boost economic activity and could lead to lower unemployment. The problem is that the diversion of resources into projects and other investments that are only justified by the stream of new money and artificially low interest rates will destroy wealth at the same time as it is boosting activity. In effect, the central bank’s efforts cause the economy to feast on its seed corn, temporarily creating full bellies while setting the stage for severe hunger in the future.

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Attn: Subscribers Who Have Not Received NFTRH 300

[edit]  Dear TM: I am receiving your emails and have mailed you from 2 different accounts.  I’ll try a 3rd.  Meanwhile, do you have an alternate email that I could use?  Thank you.  Also, the address I mail from begins with ‘NFTRH1′, not ‘NFTRH’ as you noted in your mail.  Try white listing that.

There may only be one of you now, but one is too many.  If you have not received #300 there is apparently a problem on your end with spam filtering.  Please let me know if you have not received and indeed, if you have received #300 as of this latest mailing.  Thank you.

Economic Contraction Road Map

Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture.  Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the little post-2012 expansion more vigorously than any other bearish leaning entity that I have seen, and earlier than most bullish entities I might add.

That was because of the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up → Palladium-Gold ratio → ISM upturn → Jobs upturn continuum we have been on.  But that is a positive cycle within a much larger cycle that is very negative.  Here’s the updated view of counter cyclical gold vs. cyclical commodities, which may be starting its next up turn.

au.cci

If I am right to be using this road map then I am also right in thinking that lots of people are going to find out one day what a bill of goods they bought when they (finally) bought this cyclical recovery sold to them by conventional analysis from the conventional financial services and media complexes.

NFTRH 300 Out Now

nftrh300[edit]  A few subscribers apparently did not receive this morning’s mail as their servers rejected it.  Please contact me at gtATbiiwii.com (or the contact link above) if this was the case for you.  Thank you.  [edit]  It appears Comcast is the issue.

Man, 300 market reports beginning in Q4 of 2008, right smack dab in the middle of a developing crisis (timing was intentional) and continuing on to the current day.

I took a look at NFTRH 1 in the archive this morning and realized just how far this service has come in its nearly 6 years of existence.  Not only is the weekly report more refined, focused and to me at least, pretty to look at, but the entirety of the service (including in-week updates) is just in a whole different ballpark.

Over the course of 300 reports I am going to make some great calls, look like an idiot on occasion and everything in between.  You cannot pretend you have to a secret sauce on something as complex as the financial markets, especially in an age where black boxes, HFT’s, Dark Pools and a hell of a lot of over the top policy input have driven markets toward a relative level of berserk compared to grandpa’s market.

So over the course of 300 reports I have been many things.  But one thing I am and always have been is on a course for – hokey as it sounds – continuous improvement.  As a business person my entire adult life I found that learning from mistakes and always improving make you the best.  It is the gold standard.  There are no short cuts and there are no gurus.

As for this letter?  I am very pleased with it because I think it brought the goods on what readers need to know at this particular moment in time.

NFTRH 300, out now.