Guest Post by Elliott Wave International
Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts
There’s more to deflation than falling prices
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Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.
Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”
Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:
Continue reading Debt and Deflation: 3 Financial Forecasts
Guest Post by Michael Ashton
The focus over the last few days has clearly been central bank follies. In just the last week:
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) abruptly stopped trying to hold down the Swiss Franc from rising against the Euro; the currency immediately rose 20% against the continental currency (see chart, source Bloomberg). More on this below.
Continue reading Swiss Jeez
Guest Post by Elliott Wave International
Are Buyouts Checking Out?
Two more key measures of optimism suddenly betray a diminishing appetite for stocks
By Elliott Wave International
Editor’s note: With permission, this article was adapted from the January 2015 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. For one week only, EWI is throwing open the doors to its big-picture U.S. outlook. Follow this link to read a lot more of their latest analysis, 100% free, by joining the State of the U.S. Markets Conference.
NYSE margin debt was $457 billion in November, still down from its February 2014 peak of $465.7 billion.
Continue reading Are Buyouts Checking Out?
Guest Post by Steve Saville
Changes in asset prices or any other prices do not cause changes in money supply, although many of the people who comment on the financial markets and economics believe otherwise. We were recently reminded of this mistaken belief when reading an analysis of oil’s large price decline that included the assertion that hundreds of billions of dollars had been eliminated from the economy as a result of this price change.
Continue reading How Money Vanishes
Guest Post by James Howard Kunstler
E vents are moving faster than brains now. Isn’t it marvelous that gasoline at the pump is a buck cheaper than it was a year ago? A lot of short-sighted idiots are celebrating, unaware that the low oil price is destroying the capacity to deliver future oil at any price. The shale oil wells in North Dakota and Texas, the Tar Sand operations of Alberta, and the deep-water rigs here and abroad just don’t pencil-out economically at $45-a-barrel. So the shale oil wells that are up-and-running will produce for a year and there will be no new ones drilled when they peter out — which is at least 50 percent the first year and all gone after four years.
Continue reading A Solemn Pause
Improving Macro Backdrop
In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week’s NFTRH report.
The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.
During the worst of the gold sector cyclical bear market we used Gold vs. Commodities to gauge a higher low to the 2011 low, which despite perceptions of the time, kept our longest-term macro view intact (as noted to subscribers several times, if Au-CCI had broken down we’d have had to admit that the view had failed, no if’s and’s or but’s).
The moving averages have triggered, a higher low has been made and the long-term thesis is being confirmed.
Hence, a bullish stance on quality gold mining operations (a unique counter-cyclical sector) has finally come about and the relevance of this chart of HUI vs. the S&P 500 now means more than simply one market crashing in terms of the other. It means RISK vs. REWARD is on the side of the counter-cyclical gold mining industry vs. the cyclical broad US stock market.
Continue reading Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector
Guest Post by Tom McClellan
The 18% Recession Threshold
January 18, 2015
Last week I wrote about how big federal deficits are good for the stock market. They are bad for total indebtedness that we are leaving for our grandchildren to deal with, but they are great for stock market investors. In a similar way, when there is a very small deficit or even a surplus, it tends to be a big negative factor for stock prices.
Continue reading 18% Recession Threshold
There is a lot happening across global financial markets. We go in depth into US stocks, review global stocks, make sharp points about commodities, cover macro indicators in depth and get very detailed on the precious metals. A relatively easy reading 38 pages (lots of graphics) and a clear focus.