Guest Analysis by Bob Hoye
The buy target per the original highlight was 7. In after hours LSCC sheared right through that and is, much like fellow Semiconductor company SIMG a couple months ago, now hands off. Trade idea is aborted. It is now fodder for day traders I guess.
I am not liking what I am seeing in some of the Semi’s this earnings period outside of Intel and a few others. Speaking of which, Intel may be sold as well if my market view firms to bearish for a correction.
Remember AMD’s earnings sucked too and that Intel’s performance has a lot to do with Intel and not a rising tide in the sector, in my opinion.
Remember also that the Semi’s are a leader, both ways.
Market godz help me, but I just shorted SPY. No leveraged funds, no options, just a straight short that I hope to be strong enough to hold because we know how these things usually go.
It is not so much the nearby SPY target that I am looking at as it is a constellation of indicators that show market sponsorship eroding. This joins my only other shorts, which are in the precious metals [edit: much less short the precious metals now ] and are of a very different orientation than this one on SPY.
- Because they remained bullish throughout a bear market while spouting slogans and dogma, keeping gullible people in the grip of a fantasy that they are comrades in arms against evil forces and that in the end, good will prevail.
In the end gold will be assigned its value, but there is absolutely no reason that people should have been hurt in the interim by holding the speculations that revolve around gold, especially at the behest of cranks, charlatans and carnival barkers.
I am long DBB and the intent is just as a trade. But the big picture view of the Industrial Metals index shows a break above resistance this month out of a large falling wedge. If that is not reversed by month’s end, then we’ll have to think about the base metals a little more seriously. For now, the candle could easily sag back below the red line.
A post yesterday promo’ing NFTRH+ said “JNPR has only just now started to do something after I’ve sat upon it for a couple weeks (with the SMA 200 roughly my tolerance point).”
Tolerance point is violated and a loss is forthcoming. So if I am going to promo you the positives I am going to doubly promo the fact that losses will occur. The JNPR trade was actually the product of a weekly chart, which was flagging down to support. The chart is cooked today if this morning’s drop holds up.
Just an FYI since this is a place that is going to admit its mistakes even as it touts its positives.
Dialing back to January of 2013, I am looking for clues about the coming phase for the economy, mostly as an input into whether or not I can think about turning bullish on gold again (here we remind you again of gold’s best investment case, which is counter not pro cyclical).
The answer, from a contact in the Semiconductor sector (AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, etc.) food chain was that the Semi equipment companies, which we called “canaries on the [economic] coal mine”, were ramping up and thus NFTRH’s view became bullish for the economy, at least short-term.
When this information was combined with the following chart of the Palladium-Gold ratio, which had proven a good economic backdrop indicator, the case for a firm economic phase was even stronger. Then followed a string of strong ISM data, a stabilizing ‘jobs’ picture and voila, here we are in Bull Party Central with trend followers everywhere looking good and touting to cement their reputations. But I digress…
Here is the monthly view of PALL-Gold showing that the economy may not be done yet, although the break above resistance (now support) is still very tentative…