Today’s entry in the wrong headed gold obsession sweepstakes is…
They even have a picture of a golden girl in a tiny little bikini bottom. Okay, so MSM are not all bad I guess.
Gold is suffering a major meltdown. Prices for the yellow metal have dropped to their lowest level in more than five years, and the downdraft didn’t relent Monday, with futures recording an eighth straight session of losses.
The Chief market strategist at something called CMC Markets (what’s his middle name, Michael, Matthew… Milton?) is trotted out to tell us why gold sucks so much.
Over the past week, “a number of events and trends have come together to create what looks like a perfect storm for gold,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.
He listed 4 significant influences:
1). Reduced demand for defensive havens
The “risk of an imminent Grexit has passed for now,” and political tensions around the world also appear to be easing with the completion of the Iran deal and the U.S. “reopening diplomatic relations with Cuba,” said Cieszynski.
The usual reasons for the public to believe; Straw Men, all. Just picture gold bugs clinging to their stupid metal and when Iran finally got done, they puked it up. I criticize some gold bugs but on average, monetarily speaking, the real ones make the average market participant look like a casino patron and little more. Any dumb rationalization will do as to why a market does what it does, for the average casual participant. Say what you want about gold bugs, but they are most definitely not casual.
2). Reduced need for inflation hedges
With Iran preparing to return to the oil market amid a continuing supply war among other producers, the price of oil has tumbled back toward $50 a barrel. That means “headline inflation looks likely to remain subdued for some time,” Cieszynski said.
Oh my gawd, did he really say that? Do not fear Uncle Buck, dear gold bugs. In the best investment (gold mining) scenario Unc and Gold can each be firm. Go ask Bob Hoye, he’ll tell you why. The macro funda are incomplete as of 7:01 US Eastern time on Tuesday July 21. That is because inflation is still in play as stock markets benefit. It is when the inflation fails that the macro is going to turn.
3). U.S. interest-rate liftoff and U.S. dollar rally
The risk of financial crises in Europe and concerns that China could spiral out of control and disrupt the world economy have eased dramatically, “keeping the Fed on course toward interest-rate liftoff.”
That is a consideration, and I think gold is pricing in tighter monetary policy at this time.
4). China and gold purchases.
China on Friday released data on its gold holdings for the first time since 2009. Gold reserves rose by about 60% from 2009 to 1,658 metric tons, which would have been great for gold, “except that gold only represents about 1.5% of China’s forex reserves and this percentage has not grown in the last six years, crushing hopes China would save the gold market,” said Cieszynski.
Enough with the China demand crap. It was worth ignoring when it promoted by perma bulls and it is worth ignoring now as a bearish fundamental. For every seller there is a buyer. Anyone who was buying the China/India “Love Trade” bullshit that has been churned out there through the bear market got exactly what they deserved and learned a great lesson. That has value.