An article at a popular gold website is talking about gold and Ukraine in the same sentence, let alone the same article. That’s not a positive. Surely people don’t fall for that one anymore, right? As for this technical buying, what is that? Chart is going up so they buy? This is pap, to be tuned out.
“The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted the safe-haven bid, while the improving chart picture for gold caused the technical buying and short covering.”
The other thing gold bugs should not have wanted to see was tepid volume and a failure to get back up into the bear flag on the GDX chart below. HUI, GDXJ and GLDX also sport these flags. On the plus side, MACD’s are triggered. Unfortunately, that takes a back seat to price action and volume.
Still hanging on, white knuckles and all .
Triple D tested my patience today but since its test of support has not failed I held on for a wild ride. 3D Systems and me; an over hyped company in an over hyped industry and a hype-o-phobe holding it as the punch drunk bulls continue to bail. Yes, sounds about right. This is one of several ‘bounce’ longs in a net long – but very cash heavy – portfolio. We have clear parameters for this stock market bounce.
Yield spreads are flattening today, with both the 10 and the 2 up but the 2 up more. Today’s implication (again, let’s not take any single day outside of its bounds) is a lurch to risk ‘ON’ as money comes out of short-term T bonds faster than long term T bonds.
CEF’s net asset value does not imply that the bugz are over bullish. Quite the contrary. It is selling at a decent discount to net assets and could be viewed as a long term value for those who don’t think that precious metals have gone the way of the Dodo Bird.
So as lame as the precious metals (esp. silver) have been acting, this is one for the bulls because it sure is not concerning that gold bugs are not putting their money where their convictions are.
Guest Post by Michael Ashton
Over the past week or two we have seen and heard from the Fed (in the minutes released on Wednesday), the ECB (after their April 3rd meeting), the BOJ (after their April 7th meeting), and the Bank of England (today) [April 10 --ed]. Having heard from the “big four,” I think it’s very interesting to compare what they seem to be indicating they will do to what they probably ought to do. (I am actually going to neglect the BOE, since their situation is quite complex at the moment and probably too much for a reasonable-length article).
The US stock market is negative pre-open, but don’t be surprised if we get a strong bounce soon. It could be a trade-able bounce. I have bought a couple items in anticipation and am watching several more.
A bounce is a bounce; a trade. It is what happens on a would-be bounce that will be important going forward. What will the market do at resistance? That will tell us a lot about what this thus far mini correction will be, another quickie or something more lasting.
SPX has firm support at around 1800.
One of the leaders, NDX needs to bottom shortly and make a ‘higher low’ to February or it is going to activate a bearish intermediate signal.