Over the past ten months, in steps almost too small to be noticed by the mass media, Apple has shed over two hundred billion dollars in value. That’s nearly one quarter of a trillion dollars in wealth which would have fed shareholder dreams of new houses, new boats, new jewelry, and mink coats, but……….it’s gone.
The thing is, I think the slide is far, far from over. I wrote a piece earlier this year (which got picked up by some of the mainstream press) predicting that Apple would fall to the mid-70s. We’re already heading into the low 90s, so my goofy prediction is seeming a little less insane.
Of course, it wasn’t that long ago that buying Apple was a “no brainer” – indeed, a “bargain.” God knows it wasn’t hungry for media attention. This is the unedited home page of MarketWatch a while back:
So what’s behind this fall? Lots of things (not the least of which is a wildly-overvalued market which, ultimately, will pound the Dow back into 4-digit land), but for Apple specifically, I think it’s simple: the magic is gone again.
Joining the recent NFTRH+ highlights on AMZN (in 2 regular NFTRH reports), which worked very well leading into earnings, another ‘+’ speculation looks like it is going to do okay (although the theoretical target is way beyond whatever earnings pop it might get). And the funny thing is, a big part of the results were strong iPhone sales in China. People keep waiting for iPhone to drop back to the pack, but so far…
In the update we noted “The stock broke out of a downtrend line and above its 50 day moving averages last week and zoomed higher with the market on Friday. Today it is dropping to fill the gap. A thick support zone begins at that gap.”
We also noted the buy area and stop loss on this chart/earnings speculation. It’s only up 2% in pre-market, but hey, it beats the alternative (see TWTR for example). Call me a fan boy, but Apple, Google and Amazon are 3 companies I love and depend on.
A lower priority update looking at some constructive charts of non-precious metals items for anyone interested. These might be considered along side some of the semiconductor items we have been following.
This morning I had an extended interaction with Apple’s customer care people and I have to say that this remains a first class outfit from that perspective. There was a really weird Apple ID glitch I had going on that was tied to an old Mobile Me account that was set up when I got my Mac. I never used Mobile Me and as it turns out it was a clunker for Apple.
But it was messing with iCloud and Apple ID functions on my iPhone and finally I decided to contact customer support. The first lady I talked to helped as far as she could and then bumped me up to an IOS Senior Advisor as soon as she realized the problem was complex. All I can say is that I have no diminishing of respect for this company. She took the time to go over the problem from several different angles until we finally cornered the little bugger and fixed it.
For an investment view of Apple, Ashraf Eassa checks in at SeekingAlpha with interesting Apple-Google valuation gap analysis. Apple is one I’d go long again in the future without hesitation, if and when I get a setup.
As for the chart, I’ll be interested to see what AAPL does as it closes this gap. It’ll probably depend on what the market does at its own decision point, which we looked at in an NFTRH update this morning.
Tree Wedge. The Apple chart broke a trend line this morning and is now in free fall toward some Fib retrace levels that would act as support. I traded this several times and noted it here, so I thought today was relevant for an update. I am not currently interested in AAPL unless it gets to a 62% retrace, which I certainly think it can.
China Mobile on, China Mobile off… and China Mobile on again. China Mobile hype propelled Apple to a point where I decided to sell. ‘China Mobile is NOT a done deal!’ hype dropped it to a point where I was able to buy it back. Wax is back on and I’ll probably plan to sell it at around 600 or so.
So I am going to buy it here and see what happens. This has been a great trading stock for many weeks now. Stop is obviously a loss of support.  AAPL shears through the 450’s and I take a loss. It is as much due to the macro (read: T bond yields, etc.) as Apple-specific.
They are talking about iPhone duds and analyst downgrades in Apple (AAPL) this morning. That’s fine because I sold it well below the 540 measured target (another example of not being greedy working well in this market). This one has proved to be a great trader. If support in the 450’s is registered and if the macro market is constructive at the time AAPL could offer another long trade. Then if it hits 530 to 550 one day as expected, it could be a good short or put buying opportunity.