Tree Wedge. The Apple chart broke a trend line this morning and is now in free fall toward some Fib retrace levels that would act as support. I traded this several times and noted it here, so I thought today was relevant for an update. I am not currently interested in AAPL unless it gets to a 62% retrace, which I certainly think it can.
Given that iPad and iPhone are no longer the gizmos to have and that a pack of companies are encroaching on Apple’s territory, I don’t look at the company the same way I used to (although I still love my iMac, which has served me impeccably for 5 years now with never so much as a hiccup).
This morning there is some China Mobile news for iPhone. Excellent. I hold AAPL along with MSFT (INTC was sold for a small loss after its 2014 guidance was a stinker, although I plan to buy INTC back after it settles, broad market willing) as old guard tech giants. Here is the weekly chart of AAPL with a measurement to 650.
So this week a writer comes to the realization that he sometimes beats up readers with the ultimate truths (as he sees them) on the big picture macro view. Meanwhile, there are interim views like a cyclical stock bull market that may be entering a mania phase. Why not play that (as rationally as possible) as well? Personally I do, with certain sound equity holdings. Why not talk about those more often, eh dour writer boy?
Why beat everyone up with the big macro all the time? We are human and sometimes we need to lighten up a little right? So NFTRH 265 institutes change on the interim while not altering the big picture, because one thing I do not want to alter is the truth as I interpret it. So we’ll be ready for the mania’s end as well, of that I can assure.
So I am going to buy it here and see what happens. This has been a great trading stock for many weeks now. Stop is obviously a loss of support.  AAPL shears through the 450′s and I take a loss. It is as much due to the macro (read: T bond yields, etc.) as Apple-specific.
They are talking about iPhone duds and analyst downgrades in Apple (AAPL) this morning. That’s fine because I sold it well below the 540 measured target (another example of not being greedy working well in this market). This one has proved to be a great trader. If support in the 450′s is registered and if the macro market is constructive at the time AAPL could offer another long trade. Then if it hits 530 to 550 one day as expected, it could be a good short or put buying opportunity.
But really it is a neat gizmo maker without much of the associated risk of digging ancient money out of the ground.
I am in some rare and gratifying zone where my longs are working, shorts are working and the realization is with me that I did not suddenly become a genius. What I did do what filter bullshit for weeks on end and get in position with the macro.
Anyway, AAPL is getting over bought but targets 530.
 That’s it, I hate hype and this Icahn tweet hype is too much. I’ll take the profit below target right @ 500.
Bought it for the ‘W’ pattern, took profit at
50 [ed; oops, meant 200 DMA] day moving averages and bought it back. Now AAPL is apparently ready for the move to 500.
There is resistance at the low 500′s, which is also the area the ‘W’ measures to. I’ll probably sell there but I really like this stock and would miss it. <—– look, right there… EMOTION! Got to keep that kind of thing under wraps.
As noted previously I bought AAPL for a trade based on a ‘W’ bottom formation and the fact that sentiment toward this previously over loved stock was bombed out.
Normally I would take a nice profit at the 200 day averages, and I just might. But I am given pause on that by the weekly chart, which shows no resistance up to the low 500′s if (IF!) AAPL can hold today’s pop.
I think volume may come into play here as a decider.
I am not necessarily going to post anything here if I sell. I just like showing stock charts and pondering questions sometimes.
 Sold, 10.4% booked and now I don’t have to worry about it. Plenty of other stocks out there.
Who’d have thought that the major stock that has been on the outside looking in for much of the last year would be the pump du jour for an over bought, over loved stock market?
I bought AAPL for the Model portfolio based on the ‘W’ Bottom technical potential and due to the over hyped status of some of its competitors. I came close to selling this week but decided to hang on through earnings because it was still above the support zone.
I realize that Apple is so 2012, but as I sit here typing on this Mac, which has been the best tech gizmo I’ve ever used, I can’t help but wonder if the Apple negativity has gotten a little trendy at this juncture.
Regardless, it is just a trade but it is a trade that is ongoing. Glad to see the market humping it today for another reason to rally. Speaking of the market, I think it’s getting nicely over done once again.