Boy this is a macro market newsletter that dug and dug until it came up with a lot of possibilities for various markets going into Q4 and beyond. It also highlighted something significant going on in T bond yields that I don’t think is being considered by most people.
This as 10-year yields have just about hit the 3% target we established back in May in NFTRH 239. The 30-year is closing in on its target of 4.2%. But there is something going on in yield relationships that I really need to think more about and get on top of. Anyway, even the little promo blurb for this letter is getting too involved.
Got to love the markets; never an easy answer nor a dull moment. NFTRH 255 out now.
Here is the big picture view of the Hong Kong Hang Seng.
Hang Seng monthly
Is that a double top at 2400 or a massive and bullish Symmetrical Triangle breakout? One way to find out would be to buy it (China 25 ETF FXI correlates well) and limit risk at 2000. Monthly MACD and importantly, the slower TRIX seem to think it’s a bull market.
Last year the Templeton Emerging Markets bond fund provided great gains. Now Templeton’s Mark Mobius has provided excellent 9% and 7% returns (Plus dividend income) on what are essentially mutual funds. I don’t want to get greedy.
I am still constructive on the Emerging Markets and Asia compared to US markets, but it is time to pare back on some positions now and evaluate. I still hold the Templeton Global Income fund, which is +5% since purchase and spitting off monthly income.