We look at some parameters to a stock market melt up vs. interim correction scenario. The SOX will play a key role there. The Semi’s put us on the lookout for economic strength last year and can still play a canary in the coal mine role now.
Global stocks, precious metals, commodities and the all important messages coming out of the bond market are also reviewed. 32 pages with lots of charts. NFTRH 280, out now.
Guest Analysis From Bob Hoye
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Biiwii steps into 2014, leaving the past (but not its memories) behind.
While I would appreciate a market dump (puts still held) as much as the next guy and the anticipation that TLT is going to turn up at the trend line, the HYG-TLT ratio (bottom panel) is alive and well and showing no hidden ‘risk off’ behavior beneath the surface.
Chart In Focus
Bond CEFs Still Say Liquidity is in Trouble
September 12, 2013
Earlier this year, the closed end bond funds were saying that the market was in trouble due to liquidity problems. That message continues even now without improvement, and provides a message to us that more trouble lies ahead.
There are a lot of analysts who are dismissive of the NYSE-listed issues that are not “common stocks”. This is a prejudiced view, based on the assumption that issues which are not “real” stocks do not merit our consideration. But just as the canaries in coal mines a century ago were not real coal miners, there is information to be gained from these “uncommon” issues.
Remember your father’s and your grandfather’s markets? They had some semblance of rational behavior associated with them. Today it is all media hype and too many people prepared to follow the hype. I mean, they would not produce these headlines if there weren’t people to actually digest them, right?
Syria crisis may take Fed’s tapering plan off the table
Ha ha ha… cue Huey, Dooey and Louie for some media jawboning.
The headline should actually read ‘Masses knee jerk into T bonds on Syria hysteria, dropping interest rates and opening the door for stupid headlines like this and Huey, Dooey & Louie in media’
If you have not already done so, you might consider tuning this circus out. The last 2 years have been the noisiest, most obnoxious phase I can remember, with utter worship of policy makers having climaxed along with the docile and unthinking willingness of market participants to take them seriously.
The Fed is not making the decisions. The Fed is waiting for the bond market to make their decisions.
Just some more malcontent thoughts as I sit here in the allergist’s office after getting my 8 week stick of bee venom. A lifer on this therapy after almost checking out twice due to stings.
The stock market is losing its Ponzified funding mechanism as T Bonds tank…
It is losing a leader to speculation as Junk Bonds tank…
And it is facing a crisis in credit as Investment Grade Bonds tank…
Meanwhile, established Global Bonds are falling apart again as well…
And unlike in 2012, Emerging Market Bonds are not providing a bullish divergence to the bearishness…
But the “new secular bull market” touts are talking about a “Great Rotation”, which will probably be seen as just another “Great Promotion” coming out of the financial services industry and associated media.
T Bonds, with rates of interest so long repressed by policy makers are puking in our heroes’ faces right now. 2011: Bernanke = Goat; 2013: Bernanke = Hero. So which is next? I think that he’ll be looked back upon in a similar way as Greenspan, having gotten out of Dodge just in the nick of time. Or maybe not quite if the stock market comes unwound for real sooner rather than later.