Tag Archives: bonds

Junk Bonds on the Verge of a Signal

Junk bonds (HYG fund shown below) have been hugely popular as casino patrons rushed for yield at the behest of the Fed, which took away yield elsewhere.  Well, now they may be getting it in the form rising Treasury yields (declining T bonds).  It seems counter intuitive that junk would show risk coming OFF, yet T bonds are not benefiting.

That is the screwed up market we have here, with normal signals all put in blender.  But it is safe to say that junk bonds remain an indicator to the will to speculate.

HYG declined to the first notable support at the weekly EMA 30 and is in danger of losing that average.  Next stop would probably be the EMA 100, which supported the Flash Crash hysterics in 2010 and the Euro hysterics last year in 2011.

hyg

HYG weekly chart from NFTRH 241

Volume trends have indicated a rush into junk bonds created by the post-2008 environment that has seen policy makers compel people into risk.  But there has been some huge negative volume the last couple weeks and as we noted in NFTRH, this volume looks more like a kickoff to something than a final capitulation of something because there has been no downtrend from which to capitulate from.

NFTRH 242 Out Now

As the screenshot implies, the ‘taper to carry’ scenario is alive and well for another week.  NFTRH 242 breaks little new ground, but does a good job (IMO) of keeping track of a lot of strategic things that are in motion all at once; from the inflation scenario to stock markets to commodities, precious metals, currencies and of course T bond yields.

nftrh242

Guest Market Analysis, News & Commentary

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A Monetary Rage is Brewing  Bill Bonner  4.8.13
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