Across the Curve channels Buffalo Springfield and sees the commodity Armageddon as bond friendly, to the point where Yellen can take the rate hike for 2015 off the table. Who’d be surprised about that?
Reformed Broker on 9 surprising things the subject of my favorite book on trading/investing/markets said.
Here’s a chart showing the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond going back 20 years.
As you can see, it’s been a steady decline – albeit with some big swings starting around the time of the 2008 crisis.
Mean reversion – which means that periods of relatively good performance tend to be followed by periods of relatively bad performance – suggests that Treasury bonds could be approaching a long-term secular bear market. (Yields move in the opposite direction to bond prices.)
I have had positive feelings about DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach since I saw him interviewed last year talking about strong Treasury bonds amidst the hype and hysteria about rising interest rates and the ‘Great Rotation’ out of bonds and into stocks. While the media trend followers tried to take advantage of headlines, he simply said what he thought.
I am in a bit of a hurry this morning so all I’ll say is that I liked this letter because it helped me understand where I am within the market milieu. It helped me understand short and long term parameters and the potentials within those parameters for several different markets… or something like that.
We look at some parameters to a stock market melt up vs. interim correction scenario. The SOX will play a key role there. The Semi’s put us on the lookout for economic strength last year and can still play a canary in the coal mine role now.
Global stocks, precious metals, commodities and the all important messages coming out of the bond market are also reviewed. 32 pages with lots of charts. NFTRH 280, out now.