Here is what the equally weighted Commodity Index did on Fed Day. A hold above the moving averages changes the trend. MACD almost green.
If commodities were on a bull instead grappling around for support the Fed would be in a box if they were to seek to promote inflationary policy against the prospect of moon-launching commodities.
Instead, the CCI equally weighted commodity index has looked like crap since the QE3 announcement. This either implies undeniable deflation is at work or a pause before a next leg up that would erupt soon.
Here’s a chart showing the support we’ve been watching in the newsletter for many weeks now. If CCI were to break below 560, the bearishness that I think is on tap for next year would be indicated NOW. Best to keep cash and put risk management first. But as it stands, CCI is above support. That’s a fact.