Tag Archives: china

China’s Gold Holdings

By Steve Saville

Total guesswork regarding China’s gold holdings

Last year I noticed an article by Alasdair Macleod containing an estimate that China (meaning: China’s government) had accumulated 25,000 tonnes of gold between 1983 and 2002. I would say that this estimate was based on rank speculation, but that would be doing an injustice to rank speculation. It is more like total guesswork. It is largely based on assumptions that are either obviously wrong or that have no supporting evidence. I bring this up now because it looks like the 25,000-tonne figure that was plucked out of the air by Mr. Macleod last year is on its way to becoming an accepted fact in some quarters. For example, it forms the basis of a new estimate that China’s government now has 30,000 tonnes of gold.

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China Steering Back Toward Bubbles?

By Alhambra Investment Partners

China Steering Away From or Back Toward Bubbles?

The confusing nature of the PBOC’s actions in the past year or so has led now to publications of theories over a potential power struggle at the central bank. While finally acknowledging that last year was all about “targeted” approaches to monetary “guiding” economic reality, this year is about to explode in personnel changes and therefore, supposedly, a reactionary course to more familiar “flooding” of broad-based approaches. Curiously, unlike last year, there is no contention about the state of China’s economy as it is now-universally accepted as foundering badly.

The last two “rate cuts”, including the one just conducted this weekend, are being listed under that paradigm, though I don’t know how there is any way to reconcile them without including currency moves. The PBOC may have reduced its benchmark rates, but has simultaneously also moved to a higher fix on the currency. The latter is far more important and is perfectly within the “reform” paradigm as such a move is most likely (nobody will ever know for sure) aimed at speculative “dollar” financing of all China’s problems – bubbles.

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Around the Web

By Biiwii

Rummaging for financial news and analysis from around the Web…

  • Gold-CCI & GDX and Gold CoT Improving, But…  –NFTRH  [biiwii comment: hey look, a fledgling rally appears to be getting started, but with PDAC next week the gold bug dream machine could get a bump up again and the sailing beyond the near-term is not yet indicated to be ‘all clear’]
  • We poke a little fun at PDAC, but clicking the graphic yields details of a conference that can actually be taken seriously…

mises

  • Healthcare/Biotech Names Still Dominating  –B.I.G.  [biiwii comment: don’t I know it… did some profit taking last week but also a little replanting within the Bio’s.  The weekly BTK chart has been bullish and until that changes, it’s on a trend]
  • Periphery Fragility List  –Credit Bubble Bulletin  [biiwii comment: i just found doug noland again, so CBB will be back either in ‘around the web’ format or directly published]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

  • Gathering thin reeds  –Jeff Saut  [biiwii comment; oh jeff, how could you own anything by putnam? oh, they’ve cleaned up their front running act?  i see.  all the same, no thank you…  not that it matters to you, but you are on notice for inclusion in this segment in the future.  putnam?  really?  every time I saw the ‘proud sponsor of the n.e. patriots’ ads this past football season, I wanted to hurl]
  • btw  –Josh Brown
  • HP Warns and Blames the Mighty Greenback  –Across the Curve  [biiwii comment: add hp to the list.  since q4 we have been on watch for the strong dollar dynamic to have some effect in corp. america.  not the end of the world, but an effect]

 

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[edit]  Might as well add in some of our own $.02 on the yield curve, S&P 500 and gold…  Risk ‘ON’  –NFTRH

 

Commodity Cliff Dive…

Guest Post by David Stockman & Stealthflation

Commodity Prices Are Cliff-Diving Due To The Fracturing Monetary Supernova—The Case Of Iron Ore

Crude oil is not the only commodity that is crashing. Iron ore is on a similar trajectory and for a common reason. Namely, the two-decade-long economic boom fueled by the money printing rampage of the world’s central banks is beginning to cool rapidly. What the old-time Austrians called “malinvestment” and what Warren Buffet once referred to as the “naked swimmers” exposed by a receding tide is now becoming all too apparent.

This cooling phase is graphically evident in the cliff-diving movement of most industrial commodities. But it is important to recognize that these are not indicative of some timeless and repetitive cycle—–or an example merely of the old adage that high prices are their own best cure.

Instead, today’s plunging commodity prices represent something new under the sun. That is, they are the product of a fracturing monetary supernova that was a unique and never before experienced aberration caused by the 1990s rise, and then the subsequent lunatic expansion after the 2008 crisis, of a cancerous regime of Keynesian central banking.

Continue reading Commodity Cliff Dive…

Around the Web

  • The Fed is heading for another catastrophe  –Stephen Roach @ MarketWatch  [biiwii comment: will said catastrophe arrive any time soon with everyone – incl. biiwii/nftrh – micro managing its progress? valid question]
  • No Santa Claus for Biotechs This Year  –Price Action Lab  [biiwii comment: BTK is one of NFTRH’s momentum leaders and an indicator on the overall market pertaining to the question of whether the market is preparing an upside blow off, correction or bull’s end… BTK is battered but remains unbroken as of this writing, per a now-public NFTRH update from yesterday]
  • [Semiconductor] Manufacturing Constraint Fears Grow  –Semiconductor Engineering  [biiwii comment: NFTRH has tightened up its watch on the Semi equipment industry because this is where the strong economy began and it will be where the first inkling’s of its end will be seen]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • 2015?  Jeff Saut, Dec. 1

 

Memories of 2012 & 2007

Guest Post by Doug Noland

Draghi and the PBOC throw gas on a fire.

November 21 – Reuters (John O’Donnell and Eva Taylor): “European Central Bank President Mario Draghi threw the door wide open on Friday for more dramatic action to rescue the euro zone economy, saying ‘excessively low’ inflation had to be raised quickly by whatever means necessary… ‘We will continue to meet our responsibility – we will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible, as our price stability mandate requires of us,’ Draghi said… ‘If on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough to achieve this, or further risks to the inflation outlook materialise, we would step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases.’ ‘Draghi all but announced that the central bank will step up monetary easing soon. Mr Maybe has become Mr Definitely,’ said Nick Kounis, an economist with ABN Amro. …Draghi’s remarks were almost as dramatic as his ‘whatever it takes’ speech in the summer of 2012 with which he pulled the euro zone back from the brink. Having earlier in the week pointed to early signs of improvements, Draghi on Friday said the economic situation remained difficult and the latest business survey suggested a stronger recovery was unlikely in the coming months.”

Continue reading Memories of 2012 & 2007

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