Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.
The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.
Well folks, it appears 34 pages were not enough and based on questions received from two subscribers, I thought I would do an add-on update to NFTRH 285.
Gold: Goons cover shorts, get less long. Large spec’s sell and get short. That means another incremental improvement this week.
They took their foot off the throats of the stodgy old monetary relic and his impetuous running mate as of Tuesday. Here’s the most recent gold and silver commitments of traders reports. There’s probably still more unwinding to do…
Silver’s CoT was bad for a while. This week, gold’s CoT, which had been degrading steadily, got hammered by the goons into the worst of the corrective hit. Funny how no word of the CoT data or the over bullish gold bug sentiment showed up in the headlines of the gold websites among all the ‘gold stock breakout!’ and ‘Ukraine bullish for gold’ partying.
 Note that the large specs, many of whom are hedge funds, got longer into the hit. Tell me again whether these guys are smart money?
It’s in alignment with a positive view for the whole damn commodity complex and a new wrinkle in the analysis to be fleshed out and kept tabs upon going forward.
For anyone interested, the CoT data improved again, although silver is not yet near the level that put in the June bottom. This could best be termed a sentiment indicator I guess. Other sentiment indicators are contrarian bullish. Yet certain macro fundamentals are not. I would welcome a final event to clear the contradictions, croak the bottom callers and finally set things up for a rally or bull market.
Everybody’s afraid of the dreaded ‘taper’ and that may be just what is needed to get the inflationists out of the gold market (come on FOMC, don’t roll over on us again). They are absolutely obsessed with the money printing aspect of QE and yet not looking at yield relationships and ZIRP.
Guest post by Tom McClellan
December 06, 2013
Gold and silver CoT data improved for the second week in a row.