Tag Archives: commitments of traders

Who Are Those Guys?

As the silver CoT report data systematically, almost robotically degraded into the September 2012 top (despite the seemingly bullish coming of QE3) NFTRH used to ask week after week “Who are those guys?” doing its best Butch Cassidy while evaluating the gathering short interest.

Below is the CoT graph from NFTRH 203 dated September 9, 2012.  Week after week ‘those guys’ were ganging up on silver and we all know what soon happened; a harsh bear market down leg for the precious metals.

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CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes

Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.

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The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.

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Gold Commitments of Traders

Silver’s CoT was bad for a while.  This week, gold’s CoT, which had been degrading steadily, got hammered by the goons into the worst of the corrective hit.  Funny how no word of the CoT data or the over bullish gold bug sentiment showed up in the headlines of the gold websites among all the ‘gold stock breakout!’ and ‘Ukraine bullish for gold’ partying.

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[edit] Note that the large specs, many of whom are hedge funds, got longer into the hit.  Tell me again whether these guys are smart money?