Tag Archives: commitments of traders

CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes

Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.


The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.

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Gold Commitments of Traders

Silver’s CoT was bad for a while.  This week, gold’s CoT, which had been degrading steadily, got hammered by the goons into the worst of the corrective hit.  Funny how no word of the CoT data or the over bullish gold bug sentiment showed up in the headlines of the gold websites among all the ‘gold stock breakout!’ and ‘Ukraine bullish for gold’ partying.


[edit] Note that the large specs, many of whom are hedge funds, got longer into the hit.  Tell me again whether these guys are smart money?

Gold and Silver CoT Data

For anyone interested, the CoT data improved again, although silver is not yet near the level that put in the June bottom.  This could best be termed a sentiment indicator I guess.  Other sentiment indicators are contrarian bullish.  Yet certain macro fundamentals are not.  I would welcome a final event to clear the contradictions, croak the bottom callers and finally set things up for a rally or bull market.

Everybody’s afraid of the dreaded ‘taper’ and that may be just what is needed to get the inflationists out of the gold market (come on FOMC, don’t roll over on us again).  They are absolutely obsessed with the money printing aspect of QE and yet not looking at yield relationships and ZIRP.