Tag Archives: commitments of traders

Gold CoT Nonsense

By Steve Saville

A lot of nonsensical commentary gets written about the Commitments of Traders (COT) data for gold (and silver). The information in the COT reports can be used as an indicator of gold-market sentiment. Nothing more, nothing less. It cannot validly be used to support the theory that “commercial” traders (primarily bullion banks) have been conducting a long-term price-suppression scheme.

One of the most important points to understand with regard to the positioning of traders in the gold futures market is that the group known as speculators drives the short-term price trends. This is made apparent by the following chart, which was created by Saxo Bank and linked at the article posted HERE. The chart clearly shows that, with only a few minor discrepancies, over the past three years the net position of speculators in the COMEX futures market (the black line) has moved with the gold price (the red line). More specifically, it shows that speculators start adding to their collective net-long position at price lows and continue to add until the price makes a short-term top, at which point they become net sellers and their collective net-long position begins to decline. The process is self-reinforcing, in that a rising price prompts buying and a falling price prompts selling by the trend-followers within the speculating community. Note that a chart stretching back well beyond 2012 would show the same relationship.

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Gold and Silver CoT

The gold and silver Commitments of Traders data are out and what do you know, they improved again.  Lot of good it has done precious metals investors thus far, but maybe next time people will take seriously those times when the goons are gathering short while at the same time the promoters are popping off about Ukraine, Chinese demand and Indian Wedding Season.

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Gold & Silver CoT Reports

Yup, improved a gain.  A lot of good it did precious metals bulls today, but we can bet that the goons covered shorts again today (data are only through Tuesday) and I would assume speculators continued to puke.  Got to play the game folks, in the casino at least.  This has nothing what so ever to do with real physical gold.  Note the open interest on silver; that is in line with the power of today’s thumpage.  A coming low in these metals should be very interesting.  Click the graphics to de-minify them.

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Gold and Silver CoT

As expected, there was improvement this week in the gold and silver CoT data.  Silver did not do much but it had been improving much more steadily than gold, which mysteriously (ha ha ha) took a sizable hit a week ago Thursday.  This data includes that hit.  The goons did some covering on that day.  Click graphics for full view…

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Au Commitments of Traders
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Ag Commitments of Traders

Gold and Silver CoT Report

The gold and silver CoT report has degraded again this week.  Does it matter?  Not yet apparently.

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Who Are Those Guys?

As the silver CoT report data systematically, almost robotically degraded into the September 2012 top (despite the seemingly bullish coming of QE3) NFTRH used to ask week after week “Who are those guys?” doing its best Butch Cassidy while evaluating the gathering short interest.

Below is the CoT graph from NFTRH 203 dated September 9, 2012.  Week after week ‘those guys’ were ganging up on silver and we all know what soon happened; a harsh bear market down leg for the precious metals.

Continue reading Who Are Those Guys?

Gold and Silver CoT

A lunge in a negative direction for both gold and silver this week.  Just call ’em as they come in… we’ll gauge the trend and check absolute levels this weekend.

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Gold and Silver CoT

The gold and silver Commitments of Traders data takes a lurch positive this week.  Considering that there were additional drops in prices after the data were culled, this is notable.  We’ll look at CoT in more detail in NFTRH 293.

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Gold and Silver CoT Report

From last week’s still not positive CoT data, this week gold got a surge in speculative bull activity and a surge in commercial short activity.  That is not a positive.

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Silver saw a reduction in spec longs and in commercial shorts.  Meh….

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Gold and Silver CoT

The CoT data are out and still not favorable, if favorable is defined as an extreme that would indicate a great risk vs. reward setup.

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CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes

Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.

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The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.

Continue reading CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes