By Bob Hoye
By Bob Hoye
By Bob Hoye
I have not even read the interview before starting this post. By the end of the post I will have read it and I assume, taken issue with at least some of it.
The very term “Resource Sector” is something that bothered me going back to the ‘inflation bull’ market of 2003-2008. Back then I used to grouse about the gold is silver is copper is tin is oil is hogs crowd always lumping ‘resources’ together as if they are anywhere near the same thing. They are not; they are vastly different, with most ‘resources’ being economically cyclical while gold is counter cyclical.
Sure, sometimes when the inflation tout is going good it all goes up. But there is no resources sector as a discrete and unified asset class. So my conclusion was that anyone pitching “the metals” as many used to often do (gold and industrial metals all in the same analysis) is either just lazy or a ‘resource sector’ pitch man or woman. There were tons of ‘em in 2003-2008.
Anyway, on to Casey here…
L: Well, Doug, we’ve seen another quarter of high volatility and significant world events. What strikes you as most important at present?
Doug: Everything is still held together with chewing gum and baling wire, for which I’m grateful, considering what’s coming. It’s very clear to me that the global economy is in very much the same space as it was in 2007—in other words, on the edge of a precipice.
So buy resources! Wasn’t that a solution from many corners of the fear trade into the 2008 top when resources of all kinds eventually crashed as bad or worse than the stock market?
Well, I just wrote 42 pages. I’m spent, so no big promo. I am personally enjoying the market for what it gives and having a good year so far. In that existing trends have not changed yet, the real fun however, begins at some future point.
332 is a good one. They all have been lately in my opinion. I know that because each week doing the work in these reports (and in-week updates) helps orient me and keep me cross-referenced and double checked in my own assumptions.
Frankly, I feel as though I am seeing the markets well this year. It’s sort of like conducting an orchestra and having all pieces playing to perfection. While patience is a key word, markets are moving along and making wonderful sense. To boot, even individual stock charts are working well and more often than not doing what I want them to do. Go figure.
The market manager side of me (as opposed to the idealist human side) is in control and pleased with how things are going. This manager does not care what the market does as long as we are on the right side of it. The idealist may need to find a hobby for a while.
NFTRH 332 carries the narrative up to today. It’s out now and you should check it out with an affordable subscription. I realize that everything on the internet is supposed to be free, but you know you ultimately get what you don’t pay for. We’re talking less than 4 Fidelity trade commissions a month for a weekly report and multiple updates.
One winning trade or avoided loss can pay for 5 or 10 yearly subscriptions (depending on trade size of course). When it comes time to manage the next macro turn? That could be a life changer. That’s what 2008 was after all. NFTRH will be there.
Long winded promo, every word of which I believe in and stand behind, ends now.
This week NFTRH moves further from the lunatic fringe and into conventional market analysis with lots of talk about relative global stock valuations, using P/E ratios and currency movements as the talking points.
We also break down the latest Semiconductor Book-to-Bill and illustrate why the precious metals are still not ready.
Also, there is a sentiment issue cropping up in US stock markets, even as indexes made big bullish signals. A wonderfully complex and interesting market backdrop folks. Make sure you’re on top of it.
Also, for reference here is the larger version of a graphic included in #331. Due to formatting it was not overly clear in the report. Click image for full size.
330 does some opinion making on gold sector perceptions and then buttons down to some interesting market analysis covering the usual suspects; US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals, currencies, indicators and sentiment. Good stuff.
Posting here and at NFTRH.com will be light in the first half of the week as it is school vacation and the kids are going to get some daddy time, whether they like it or not!
If we are going to use the CCI-Gold ratio as an important indicator to global economic contraction, we might view its recent bounce as making sense with respect to a broad global asset market bounce (incl. commodities) and in the US, a break upward from the recent nerve wracking ‘swing phase’ of volatile ups and downs in the stock market.
NFTRH managed the bullish stock market break in real time and I personally positioned accordingly. But I am not going to go all ‘Dow 30,000′ on you in Armstongian fashion. I am simply going to note that the indicator above has made a cyclical trigger (most recent red arrow) and its companion, the Palladium-Gold ratio is looking none too good either (though the MA’s have not triggered).
If these act as they historically have, they are a ticking clock. This clock ticks painfully slowly, but it is ticking for the economy none the less.
How to promo… how to promo? NFTRH 329 took a hard look at the realities of what happened last week and despite an end of week reversal (below SPX key resistance of 2165) it found that at week’s end the bulls and the risk ‘ON’ contingent regained their footing.
Going the other way, the rise in short-term yields vs. long-term yields was gold bearish and not friendly to Team Risk ‘OFF’.
A really good market report doing the work it has to do every step of the way. Of course we are in the volatile ‘swing baby, swing’ market so we’ll be ready to adjust as always over the coming week. The key is to be in proper position for when the ‘swing’ phase consolidation ends.
Guest Post by Bob Hoye