Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture. Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the little post-2012 expansion more vigorously than any other bearish leaning entity that I have seen, and earlier than most bullish entities I might add.
That was because of the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up → Palladium-Gold ratio → ISM upturn → Jobs upturn continuum we have been on. But that is a positive cycle within a much larger cycle that is very negative. Here’s the updated view of counter cyclical gold vs. cyclical commodities, which may be starting its next up turn.
If I am right to be using this road map then I am also right in thinking that lots of people are going to find out one day what a bill of goods they bought when they (finally) bought this cyclical recovery sold to them by conventional analysis from the conventional financial services and media complexes.
Well the media always need to have a reason and this morning the reason for the hard down in the stock market is apparently second thoughts by investors on the Fed Minutes and QE tapering (with a side of Portugal/European problems).
What is actually happening is that it was time for a summer disturbance (at best) due to the factors we noted in the NFTRH excerpt on Monday. At worst the bull market is ending, but the favored plan is for a significant – possibly scary – drop that refuels the bull for one more thrust.
But that preference does not have a lot of conviction behind it. The only conviction I have right now is that the market is/was due for a July breather and this could be it.
People should have been prepared for this.
You will probably be seeing a lot of charts like this all over the internet going forward. The now obvious breakout in silver is going to get a lot of airplay as players take yesterday as a signal of a coming bullish phase. I mean, think about the Black Boxes and their ‘if/then’ code. What might the ‘then’ statement do in response to this week’s ‘if’?
The breakout is not surprising. NFTRH had been noting for the last many weeks that silver was going to “break out or break down” and that it was going to do it in this general time frame. Since I am not a Swami I refrain from making guesses, but simply try to dig up as much pertinent information as possible and get it into the analysis. *
Guest Post by Michael Ashton
The recent, aggressive ECB ease, combined with some mild Fed growls about increasing rates “at some point,” ought to be good news for the dollar against the Euro. And so it has been, although as you see in this weekly chart (source: Bloomberg) the weakening of the Euro has been (a) mild and (b) started more than a month before the ECB actually took action. (Note that the units here are dollars per Euro).
I ask you again dear gold stock enthusiasts, please think about tuning out the wise guys with all the answers, especially when they are ranting about inflation, India, China or the coming collapse of the USD. Please filter this, for your own financial well being.
Gold must out perform commodities, stock markets and other assets for a real bull to generate in the stocks. Here’s the state of GLD vs. DBC today. It is one fundamental indicator with a chance to reverse upward if this support level holds. There are others that must do so as well.
NFTRH had projected a top of some kind (whether merely corrective or terminal) in the CCI commodity index as the leaders in Agriculture were due to roll over from excessively over bought (and over hyped). We have been describing what has been going on in commodities as a good old fashioned rotation of rolling speculations with the hedgies, various other black boxes and momo’s playing the sector. There is nothing but hot air to the noted support level.
Guest Analysis by Bob Hoye
Click for full report (pdf)
There is a problem with biiwii.com’s server this morning and I was unable to do the Wednesday morning Key ETF update without constant interruptions. In its place this week we’ll simply go with a general update by email.
Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.
The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.
Think about the year long topping process of up and down spikes on the HUI Gold Bugs index in 2011. Now think about things that may be working on replicas of that activity (hello US stocks) and things in the mirror that may be working on the inverse of it (hello grinding and dispiriting gold sector).
Now think about how long these processes take to play out and the patience involved. Also think about trading or defaulting to cash, because at times of change the volatility is something to behold (going both ways).
NFTRH 286 out now.
Guest Analysis by Bob Hoye
Click for full report