332 is a good one. They all have been lately in my opinion. I know that because each week doing the work in these reports (and in-week updates) helps orient me and keep me cross-referenced and double checked in my own assumptions.
Frankly, I feel as though I am seeing the markets well this year. It’s sort of like conducting an orchestra and having all pieces playing to perfection. While patience is a key word, markets are moving along and making wonderful sense. To boot, even individual stock charts are working well and more often than not doing what I want them to do. Go figure.
The market manager side of me (as opposed to the idealist human side) is in control and pleased with how things are going. This manager does not care what the market does as long as we are on the right side of it. The idealist may need to find a hobby for a while.
NFTRH 332 carries the narrative up to today. It’s out now and you should check it out with an affordable subscription. I realize that everything on the internet is supposed to be free, but you know you ultimately get what you don’t pay for. We’re talking less than 4 Fidelity trade commissions a month for a weekly report and multiple updates.
One winning trade or avoided loss can pay for 5 or 10 yearly subscriptions (depending on trade size of course). When it comes time to manage the next macro turn? That could be a life changer. That’s what 2008 was after all. NFTRH will be there.
Long winded promo, every word of which I believe in and stand behind, ends now.
This week NFTRH moves further from the lunatic fringe and into conventional market analysis with lots of talk about relative global stock valuations, using P/E ratios and currency movements as the talking points.
We also break down the latest Semiconductor Book-to-Bill and illustrate why the precious metals are still not ready.
Also, there is a sentiment issue cropping up in US stock markets, even as indexes made big bullish signals. A wonderfully complex and interesting market backdrop folks. Make sure you’re on top of it.
Also, for reference here is the larger version of a graphic included in #331. Due to formatting it was not overly clear in the report. Click image for full size.
330 does some opinion making on gold sector perceptions and then buttons down to some interesting market analysis covering the usual suspects; US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals, currencies, indicators and sentiment. Good stuff.
Posting here and at NFTRH.com will be light in the first half of the week as it is school vacation and the kids are going to get some daddy time, whether they like it or not!
If we are going to use the CCI-Gold ratio as an important indicator to global economic contraction, we might view its recent bounce as making sense with respect to a broad global asset market bounce (incl. commodities) and in the US, a break upward from the recent nerve wracking ‘swing phase’ of volatile ups and downs in the stock market.
NFTRH managed the bullish stock market break in real time and I personally positioned accordingly. But I am not going to go all ‘Dow 30,000′ on you in Armstongian fashion. I am simply going to note that the indicator above has made a cyclical trigger (most recent red arrow) and its companion, the Palladium-Gold ratio is looking none too good either (though the MA’s have not triggered).
If these act as they historically have, they are a ticking clock. This clock ticks painfully slowly, but it is ticking for the economy none the less.
How to promo… how to promo? NFTRH 329 took a hard look at the realities of what happened last week and despite an end of week reversal (below SPX key resistance of 2165) it found that at week’s end the bulls and the risk ‘ON’ contingent regained their footing.
Going the other way, the rise in short-term yields vs. long-term yields was gold bearish and not friendly to Team Risk ‘OFF’.
A really good market report doing the work it has to do every step of the way. Of course we are in the volatile ‘swing baby, swing’ market so we’ll be ready to adjust as always over the coming week. The key is to be in proper position for when the ‘swing’ phase consolidation ends.
Another solid report this week. I know that because it helped me out yet again in trying to understand all the components in play across markets; all the tops spinning around on the table.
Stock market sentiment is an issue as markets continue at an important technical decision point. The precious metals have short-term technical parameters but more importantly, they have some pretty important long-term signals coming in. Well, gold and even more so, gold miners. Silver is not something I am personally excited about on the big picture.
The biggest picture view, which has been an uninterrupted global economic contraction is intact and getting stronger. From that spring so many other items for extrapolation and strategy.
“If you’ve got young people who don’t know what to do, I’d urge them not to get MBAs, but to get agriculture degrees,” – Jim Rogers
“All your viewers who got MBAs made a terrible mistake; they should try to exchange them for farming degrees or mining degrees”. – Jim Rogers speaking to a Bloomberg anchor
In 2004, Jim’s book Hot Commodities was published. In the book he focuses specifically on sugar and coffee due to favourable supply demand issues. Over the few years following publication both commodities rallied hard producing gains of 155% and 232% respectively.
Once again, we see that the cure for all of the world’s ills is quantitative easing. Since there is apparently no downside to QE, it is a shame that we didn’t figure this out earlier. The S&P could have been at 200,000, rather than just 2,000, if only governments and central banks had figured out a century ago that running large deficits, combined with having a central bank purchase large amounts of that debt in the open market, was the key to rallying assets without limit.
That paragraph is obviously tongue-in-cheek, but on a narrow time-scale it really looks like it is true. The Fed pursued quantitative easing with no yet-obvious downside, and stocks blasted off to heights rarely seen before; the Bank of Japan’s QE has added 94% to the Nikkei in the slightly more than two years since Abe was elected; and today’s announcement by the ECB of a full-scale QE program boosted share values by 1-2% from Europe to the United States.