Tag Archives: copper

Doctor Copper Catches Pneumonia

Guest Post by Bill Fleckenstein @ Stealflation

Following its recent decline, at this moment copper is following oil’s path lower, along with many other commodities as well. Whether it turns out copper has been undermined by the same phenomenon as oil — i.e., misallocated capital — we won’t know for a while, but what is clear is that the signals emanating from financial markets are grossly distorted because of the absolutely extraordinary amount of money that’s been printed by the U.S. and other central banks in the last group of years. 

The crosscurrents and potential for whipsaws in many of these markets is absolutely extraordinary, and at times it can be rather confusing as to what, if anything, the markets are trying to tell us. Regretfully, I think much of it is noise caused by all the printed money, but not all of it, and ferreting out the difference between the two is going to be important — and tricky. 

Like a Cartoon Cliffhanger: Just Don’t Look Down

One thing I am absolutely certain of, there is no way the stock market can hold together in the absence of QE and the presence of the weakness in the world economy that we already know about, much less the as-yet-unknown consequences that the break in oil, copper, and credit markets might inspire. 

It is actually remarkable that the stock market has held up as well as it has thus far, and on every day that it looks ugly it seems many people are still eager to buy the dip. Perhaps that isn’t terribly surprising given the fact that the last six years have essentially been straight up, with very little angst (certainly the last couple of years have had very little), so at the moment there doesn’t seem to be much fear among U.S. stock investors, even given the long and mounting list of things that could potentially go wrong. For the time being, the prior price action and momentum seems to carry the day, though that does appear to be changing.

 FX: Like a Beauty Pageant for Warthogs

Parenthetically, I firmly believe that the dollar is on borrowed time. It is where it is simply thanks to the stock market soaring on the back of easy money, which caused people to believe that the economy is stronger than it is and that the Fed will be raising rates. The problem is, other colored pieces of paper all have their own warts. 

However, I think expectations are so high for the dollar, and positions are so huge, that trouble is inevitable. As big a hunk of junk as the euro is, when the ECB starts QE, the euro may (perversely) rally. In any case, I’m not really doing much regarding the dollar because if it does weaken, precious metals will quite likely do very well. 

Yield Sign Translation: Do Not Enter!

With the U.S. 30-year bond making a new low in yield of around 2.40%, the bond markets continue to be the epicenter of distorted prices, thanks to what the central banks have done. But that has been the case for some time and doesn’t mean it will change soon. In the short run, weakness in stocks or bonds will likely cause even more bond buying, but the bond market is going to be the scene of the accident of a lifetime at some point, even if that appears to be several steps ahead of us still.

Around the Web

  • GDX vs. SPY; Different This Time  –NFTRH  [biiwii comment: what is different is that the main gold sector hype has been how deflation is going to destroy gold stocks; Ukraine was so summer of 2014]
  • What, Us Worry?  Economists Stay Upbeat as Markets See Trouble  –Bloomberg  [biiwii comment: look, things may indeed be fine for now; the forward data will tell the story. but how many mainstream economists saw the bubble top in 2000, the credit bubble, housing bubble and the coming liquidations of all manner of leveraged excess in 2008?  answer… see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil…]

 

Around the Web

  • MBS & MBS  –Across the Curve  [biiwii comment:  some pretty cool play-by-play]

 

Bottom for Copper

Guest Post by Tom McClellan

Chart Data Show a Bottom for Copper

Copper COT Data
October 10, 2014

Last week I pointed out how the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data for currencies were pointing to a big topping condition for the dollar.  That top appears to have arrived, and if the dollar heads downward then that should provide a boost to prices for all sorts of commodities.

Continue reading Bottom for Copper

Doctor Copper Updated

Copper is a tough one.  If copper hangs in and hints at an ‘inflation trade’ (i.e. anti-USD) bounce to come, I’d like to buy COPX or FCX.  The charts are coming along nicely.  COPX was NFTRH+’d recently for just such an occasion.

The weekly chart of copper is trying to hold above a downtrend breakout line and hold a trend out of March.

copper

But the monthly chart is still disgusting, a year or so after it was created…

Continue reading Doctor Copper Updated

Morning Market Report; Metals

Guest Post by Ino.com

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Dec 2014 1285.8 +0.6 +0.05%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 123.3501 +0.6101 +0.49%
SILVER Dec 2014 19.455 -0.004 -0.02%
PALLADIUM Dec 2014 888.50 -1.65 -0.19%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 16.10 -1.11 -6.90%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 40.992 +0.192 +0.47%

Gold, Silver & Copper

Continue reading Morning Market Report; Metals

NFTRH+; Copper Miners Setup

With Copper rising above the converged 50 and 200 day SMA’s (around 3.18/lb) and with commodities in general at do-or-die support, I wanted to put up a chart of COPX for future reference for you copper/base metals aficionados.

Continue reading NFTRH+; Copper Miners Setup

Morning Report – Precious Metals

Guest Post by Ino.com

Market Summary
The Dow Future is higher 19 points to 16506. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.069 points to 80.288. Gold has slipped 5.57 dollars to 1286.80. Silver is trending lower 0.0990 dollars to 19.8575. The Dow Industrials rose 40.39 points, at 16573.00, while the S&P 500 trended higher 5.38 points, last seen at 1890.90. The Nasdaq Composite moved up 8.60 points to 4276.64. 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Jun 2014 1284.3 -6.5 -0.50%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 124.31 +0.92 +0.74%
SILVER May 2014 19.840 -0.210 -1.05%
PALLADIUM Jun 2014 784.65 -3.15 -0.40%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 23.86 -1.82 -7.65%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 41.6500 +0.3400 +0.82%

PRECIOUS METALS

Continue reading Morning Report – Precious Metals

China Gold Demand Drop? So What?

Now we will get to test the theory that little of what most people consider fundamentals for gold actually matters.  That would be things like Indian wedding season, jewelry demand, central bank buying/selling and the one hyped in the gold “community” more than any other, China gold demand.

From Hard Assets Investor:  Gold Flat Amid China Demand Drop

According to the China Gold Association, demand in the world’s largest No. 1 consumer may fall 17 percent this quarter from a year ago. An official for the trade group said the decline wasn’t unusual given the huge spike in demand last year.

“Last year was a peculiar year when we saw a big fall in prices,” Zhang Yongtao, vice chairman of the CGA, said. “People bought a lot of gold, and I think demand will start climbing again once the festive and marriage season begin later this year.”

‘But but… China gold demand is strong!!’ kept people bullish last year as gold got blown up.  Marriage season?  Please.  For me it is investment demand that matters.

Continue reading China Gold Demand Drop? So What?

CoT Improves for Silver & Copper, Gold… Meh

It’s in alignment with a positive view for the whole damn commodity complex and a new wrinkle in the analysis to be fleshed out and kept tabs upon going forward.

cot.ag.cu.au

Doctor Needs a House Call, Copper Chart in Trouble

A house call from a specialist in exhaustion might be in order for Doctor Copper if the weekly copper chart is any indication.

Above the dotted neckline something else would be going on, like a meaningful commodity (inflation) rally.  Below it, and especially the solid downtrend line?  Not so much.

cu
Cu weekly, from NFTRH 271

So when is it going to matter that all this economic strength is not translating to anything other than the financialized aspects of the economy?  I mean yes, manufacturing is strong.  NFTRH was THE first to anticipate that (that I could see anyway, as most current bulls were thumb sucking a year ago).  But where’s the beef?  Where’s the heavy red metal?