By Tom McClellan
Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth
May 15, 2015
The unemployment rate has not finished falling. That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.
In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data. It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate. In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed out. So to find a relationship between them is not much of a surprise.
Continue reading Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment
There is so much data flying around out there. From the Credit data we reviewed yesterday to weakening manufacturing and exports to employment up nicely one month and down big the next, to frisky consumers (the economy’s ‘back end’, putting it nicely) out there confidently living it up.
Big pictures help us let it all simmer and take out the noise. Here is a big picture for you… and it is an unchanged story; America has eaten its financial seed corn (replacing it with the soft meal known as credit) and financial market analysis is now in the hands of data freaks parsing and quantifying every little twitch on short time frames to draw conclusions and extrapolations based on little more than a black hole (that would be debt).
Here is the 10 year yield (blue shaded area) pinned down for decades by our ‘Continuum’ indicator, the monthly EMA 100 along with the 2 year yield (orange).
Continue reading Boom ZERO
From a subscriber who is a massive market and economic geek (I mean, seemingly insatiable in the things he digs up), comes this MoM change on various economic indicators. This comes by way of @dv_dend
By Alhambra Investment Partners
The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just in Europe) includes some grammatical derivation of “unexpected” usually right in the opening paragraph.
German factory orders unexpectedly fell for a second month in February in a sign Europe’s largest economy is still prone to risks.
If that isn’t representative from Bloomberg, here’s another opening from Bloomberg also discussing German factory orders:
Continue reading If Sentiment Were a Currency