Tag Archives: economy

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

By Tom McClellan

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

Unemployment rate and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May 15, 2015

The unemployment rate has not finished falling.  That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.

In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data.  It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate.  In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed out.  So to find a relationship between them is not much of a surprise.

Continue reading Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market analysis & news from around the web
  • Wall Street Vampires  –Paul Krugman  [biiwii comment: i’ll highlight anyone, incl. Krugman, when they are right about something; or at least mostly right about something. imo Krugman is right about this something]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Analysis & News From Around the Global Buzz Factory

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Market News & Analysis From Around the Intertubes…

 

Boom ZERO

By NFTRH

There is so much data flying around out there.  From the Credit data we reviewed yesterday to weakening manufacturing and exports to employment up nicely one month and down big the next, to frisky consumers (the economy’s ‘back end’, putting it nicely) out there confidently living it up.

Big pictures help us let it all simmer and take out the noise.  Here is a big picture for you… and it is an unchanged story; America has eaten its financial seed corn (replacing it with the soft meal known as credit) and financial market analysis is now in the hands of data freaks parsing and quantifying every little twitch on short time frames to draw conclusions and extrapolations based on little more than a black hole (that would be debt).

Here is the 10 year yield (blue shaded area) pinned down for decades by our ‘Continuum’ indicator, the monthly EMA 100 along with the 2 year yield (orange).

10.2

Continue reading Boom ZERO

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial news & analysis from around the web

 

Looking for Your MoM?

By Biiwii

From a subscriber who is a massive market and economic geek (I mean, seemingly insatiable in the things he digs up), comes this MoM change on various economic indicators.  This comes by way of @dv_dend

mom

If Sentiment Were a Currency

By Alhambra Investment Partners

The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just in Europe) includes some grammatical derivation of “unexpected” usually right in the opening paragraph.

German factory orders unexpectedly fell for a second month in February in a sign Europe’s largest economy is still prone to risks.

If that isn’t representative from Bloomberg, here’s another opening from Bloomberg also discussing German factory orders:

Continue reading If Sentiment Were a Currency