Tag Archives: economy

Pivotal Events

Guest Post by Bob Hoye

pivotal.events
Click for full PDF report

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • Gold… and a Ramble  –NFTRH [biiwii comment: he’s bitching and moaning again about the misperceptions game surrounding the monetary value relic]
  • Bracing for Stagnation  –Raghuram Rajan  [biiwii comment: errr… one of my heroes. thx for the link, Hammer]

 

A Solemn Pause

Guest Post by James Howard Kunstler

E vents are moving faster than brains now. Isn’t it marvelous that gasoline at the pump is a buck cheaper than it was a year ago? A lot of short-sighted idiots are celebrating, unaware that the low oil price is destroying the capacity to deliver future oil at any price. The shale oil wells in North Dakota and Texas, the Tar Sand operations of Alberta, and the deep-water rigs here and abroad just don’t pencil-out economically at $45-a-barrel. So the shale oil wells that are up-and-running will produce for a year and there will be no new ones drilled when they peter out — which is at least 50 percent the first year and all gone after four years.

Continue reading A Solemn Pause

18% Recession Threshold

Guest Post by Tom McClellan

The 18% Recession Threshold

Federal tax receipts and the SP500
January 18, 2015

Last week I wrote about how big federal deficits are good for the stock market.  They are bad for total indebtedness that we are leaving for our grandchildren to deal with, but they are great for stock market investors.  In a similar way, when there is a very small deficit or even a surplus, it tends to be a big negative factor for stock prices.

Continue reading 18% Recession Threshold

NFTRH 326 Out Now

There is a lot happening across global financial markets.  We go in depth into US stocks, review global stocks, make sharp points about commodities, cover macro indicators in depth and get very detailed on the precious metals.  A relatively easy reading 38 pages (lots of graphics) and a clear focus.

nftrh326

Messin’ With My Financial Brain

Guest Post by Doug Wakefield

wakefield
Click for full pdf

 

Around the Web

  • GDX vs. SPY; Different This Time  –NFTRH  [biiwii comment: what is different is that the main gold sector hype has been how deflation is going to destroy gold stocks; Ukraine was so summer of 2014]
  • What, Us Worry?  Economists Stay Upbeat as Markets See Trouble  –Bloomberg  [biiwii comment: look, things may indeed be fine for now; the forward data will tell the story. but how many mainstream economists saw the bubble top in 2000, the credit bubble, housing bubble and the coming liquidations of all manner of leveraged excess in 2008?  answer… see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil…]

 

Pivotal Events

Guest Post by Bob Hoye

pivotal.events
Click for full report (pdf)

 

Hommies Hammered

Well actually, one Hommie is getting hammered and the index is getting dinged.  We have been following this chart of the Homebuilders Index for probably a year or so now.  It has been moving along in a large, bullish Cup & Handle.

hgx

Today KB Home grossed out the market (thanks for the heads up, Hammer) with talk about stuff that you would not expect to see in a low energy and (some) materials and low interest rate environment.

“We are projecting our first quarter 2015 gross margin will drop significantly from the first quarter of 2014 hitting the low point for the year before improving sequentially for the remaining three quarters of 2014,” Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said on a conference call after the company released quarterly financial results. He said there was a “softening in demand” in some markets during the fourth quarter, more sales incentives, and pressures from construction, labor and material costs.

Unbelievable.  It reminds me of what I posted a few weeks ago about my trash man boosting prices due to increased costs – of nearly everything other than powering his trucks.  There have been other surprising instances of late as well that I don’t quite recall at the moment.

Could the payback for the balls out inflationary operation in play 24/7 and 365 over the last 6 years be brewing?