Tag Archives: economy

US Economy & Semi b2b

By NFTRH

Excerpted from the May 24 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 344:

US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend

A quick review for newer subscribers:  In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry.  After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator.  The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.

b2b

For forward looking purposes we note that it is the bookings, not billings that matter.

The graphic is, as usual, from SEMI.org (w/ my mark ups) as is this quote…

Continue reading US Economy & Semi b2b

The Smaller Economy…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

The Smaller Economy Getting Smaller Still

Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month in April, meaning with January’s flat reading that new orders for this important segment of consumer “demand” has been consistently shrinking in all of 2015 so far. New orders for capital goods have been negative year-over-year in all four months. With the pace of shipments just now starting to decelerate, it would appear that without a surge in new orders very soon economic production will have to adjust much lower in the near future.

ABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods ex TransABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods Cap Goods Continue reading The Smaller Economy…

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

By Tom McClellan

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

Unemployment rate and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May 15, 2015

The unemployment rate has not finished falling.  That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.

In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data.  It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate.  In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed out.  So to find a relationship between them is not much of a surprise.

Continue reading Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market analysis & news from around the web
  • Wall Street Vampires  –Paul Krugman  [biiwii comment: i’ll highlight anyone, incl. Krugman, when they are right about something; or at least mostly right about something. imo Krugman is right about this something]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Analysis & News From Around the Global Buzz Factory

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Market News & Analysis From Around the Intertubes…

 

Boom ZERO

By NFTRH

There is so much data flying around out there.  From the Credit data we reviewed yesterday to weakening manufacturing and exports to employment up nicely one month and down big the next, to frisky consumers (the economy’s ‘back end’, putting it nicely) out there confidently living it up.

Big pictures help us let it all simmer and take out the noise.  Here is a big picture for you… and it is an unchanged story; America has eaten its financial seed corn (replacing it with the soft meal known as credit) and financial market analysis is now in the hands of data freaks parsing and quantifying every little twitch on short time frames to draw conclusions and extrapolations based on little more than a black hole (that would be debt).

Here is the 10 year yield (blue shaded area) pinned down for decades by our ‘Continuum’ indicator, the monthly EMA 100 along with the 2 year yield (orange).

10.2

Continue reading Boom ZERO

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial news & analysis from around the web