Tag Archives: economy

A Recessionary ‘Feel’…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

Recessionary ‘Feel’ Remains in Trade

I understand the idea behind trying to get exports to fit into the orthodox conventions about the dollar and global trade, even if I don’t agree with that at all, as it at least makes some plausible sense. If the dollar is up against trade partners, in simple math terms you might expect to see fewer US exports heading overseas – the currency translation makes our goods “more expensive.” But where that has at least a logical basis, there is none on the import side. If US goods are more expensive, then foreign goods are much cheaper, relatively, and thus with robust jobs and all that there should be a massive infusion of imports right now.

The opposite is, of course, the case, where imports continue to collapse in 2015. The resolution of the West Coast port strike, which is so often referenced in all this, amounted to a March increase of just 2.1% year-over-year. That followed February’s alarming 4.4% decline. But rather than all these cheapened imports and freely flowing ports opening up the spigot for burgeoning domestic demand, imports fell almost 6% in April! That was the worst month since March 2013 and the initial inflection off the 2012 global slowdown. If there is a robust US economy hiding in here, it is the most camouflaged in history.

ABOOK June 2015 ExIm Imports YY Continue reading A Recessionary ‘Feel’…

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Tubes…

  • Banks, Gold & Yields  –NFTRH.com [biiwii comment: so i start a post simply to update the mostly inverse situation in bkx and gold, and i get into a whole ball of wax before it’s done.  check it out.]

 

US Economy & Semi b2b

By NFTRH

Excerpted from the May 24 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 344:

US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend

A quick review for newer subscribers:  In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry.  After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator.  The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.

b2b

For forward looking purposes we note that it is the bookings, not billings that matter.

The graphic is, as usual, from SEMI.org (w/ my mark ups) as is this quote…

Continue reading US Economy & Semi b2b

The Smaller Economy…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

The Smaller Economy Getting Smaller Still

Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month in April, meaning with January’s flat reading that new orders for this important segment of consumer “demand” has been consistently shrinking in all of 2015 so far. New orders for capital goods have been negative year-over-year in all four months. With the pace of shipments just now starting to decelerate, it would appear that without a surge in new orders very soon economic production will have to adjust much lower in the near future.

ABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods ex TransABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods Cap Goods Continue reading The Smaller Economy…

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

By Tom McClellan

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

Unemployment rate and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May 15, 2015

The unemployment rate has not finished falling.  That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.

In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data.  It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate.  In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed out.  So to find a relationship between them is not much of a surprise.

Continue reading Consumer Sentiment Forecasts Employment

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market analysis & news from around the web
  • Wall Street Vampires  –Paul Krugman  [biiwii comment: i’ll highlight anyone, incl. Krugman, when they are right about something; or at least mostly right about something. imo Krugman is right about this something]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Analysis & News From Around the Global Buzz Factory

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Market News & Analysis From Around the Intertubes…