Tag Archives: economy

Around the Web

By Biiwii

It’s been a while since we went around the intertubes for some market analysis…

  • Mortgage Rates at 35 Week High but Purchase Applications Picking Up  –GaveKal  [biiwii comment: a rush to ‘get in’ before the big bond bear (interest rate rise)? but this is the public we are talking about (the same public that was convinced about $200 oil).  that could be bullish for bonds (bearish for interest rates) after our target of 3.6% to 3.7% on the 30 year is registered on the ‘continuum’, though there’s a 1st time for everything, so we’ll avoid overly rigid thinking…]

 

NFTRH 347 Out Now

By Biiwii

There is short-term and there is long-term.  Short-term, an indicator of positive inflationary cyclicality looks set to bounce.  Long-term, it is locked well below key resistance.  Joining this long-term Gloomy Gus indicator is another that we used in 2013 to gauge an oncoming economic UP cycle.  It is working its way toward economic DOWN, slowly but surely over many months.

There’s lots of other valuable stuff in #347 as well, including market calls/opinions, stock highlights, interest rates and well, the most comprehensive kit and kaboodle you’re going to find out there.  But then, I am biased.

NFTRH 347 really helped me get my orientations focused.  That’s why I love doing this work.

nftrh347

Consumers in Recession…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

Consumers Stay In Recession Which Is Taken As A ‘Surge’?

I honestly don’t know where to begin:

U.S. retail sales surged in May as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods even as they paid a bit more for gasoline, the latest sign economic growth is finally gathering steam.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales increased 1.2 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in April.

If you can find anything in that first paragraph as holding true, then numbers no longer have any meaning. The “gathering steam” is not steam at all but the thick, black smoke of household conflagration that has not only failed to arrest but gets worse with every passing month (and revision).  The revisions to April were almost exclusively in automobiles, which accomplished only moving the order in which the last five months end up on the list of the 20 worst months in the entire series – rearranging the deck chairs on the Consumer Titanic. Overall retail sales in May were estimated at an atrociously low +0.96%, including autos, which is the second worst showing of the entire “cycle” (marginally better than February 2013). April’s upward revision took that month from the second worst all the way to the third worst.

Continue reading Consumers in Recession…

Eurodollar Decay…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

The Global Downside to Eurodollar Decay

It is exceedingly difficult these days to detect where finance ends and the economy begins. That was intended, of course, as it was believed that greater intrusiveness on the part of the financial ends were consistent with greater, and better, economic control. Certain strains of economics have been obsessed since the dawn of the discipline with finding “optimal” outcomes. More recently, especially since the 1960’s, that has been transformed into not just understanding them or their potential but actually creating them through commandment of finance.

The generalized view of the current global predicament is simply that those seeking “optimal” outcomes through “optimal” control don’t have any real appreciation for how their efforts have transformed pretty much everything. The Federal Reserve in the United States still operates as if the US dollar were the US dollar, applying narrowly to just the circumstances within the US. Only recently (somehow it took until 2010!! for them begin thinking of unifying federal funds and eurodollars; one of many massive mistakes in 2008) has the eurodollar system become even a small topic of interest.

Continue reading Eurodollar Decay…

NFTRH 346 Out Now

By Biiwii

Here is the note from the email to subscribers that accompanied the full report…

“I thought is was time to bulk up a bit to a 30+ page report this week. We review some of the key indicators and try to clearly define the status of US and global stocks, precious metals, commodities, currencies and even interest rates. In fact, I think US long-term interest rates are a key so many other items. The ‘Continuum’ AKA the monthly view of the 30 year yield is back front and center in the analysis, with a target of 3.6% to 3.7%. But yields are not near an indication of what the media will hype as a new bear market in Treasury bonds and an age of rising interest rates. Not saying it can’t happen, it sure can. But I am saying that it is not nearly indicated, just as it was not indicated during the last rate hysteria or the one before that or the one before that…”

Well, interest rates were just a component of this comprehensive report.  But they are a key.

NFTRH 346 out now.

nftrh346

A Recessionary ‘Feel’…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

Recessionary ‘Feel’ Remains in Trade

I understand the idea behind trying to get exports to fit into the orthodox conventions about the dollar and global trade, even if I don’t agree with that at all, as it at least makes some plausible sense. If the dollar is up against trade partners, in simple math terms you might expect to see fewer US exports heading overseas – the currency translation makes our goods “more expensive.” But where that has at least a logical basis, there is none on the import side. If US goods are more expensive, then foreign goods are much cheaper, relatively, and thus with robust jobs and all that there should be a massive infusion of imports right now.

The opposite is, of course, the case, where imports continue to collapse in 2015. The resolution of the West Coast port strike, which is so often referenced in all this, amounted to a March increase of just 2.1% year-over-year. That followed February’s alarming 4.4% decline. But rather than all these cheapened imports and freely flowing ports opening up the spigot for burgeoning domestic demand, imports fell almost 6% in April! That was the worst month since March 2013 and the initial inflection off the 2012 global slowdown. If there is a robust US economy hiding in here, it is the most camouflaged in history.

ABOOK June 2015 ExIm Imports YY Continue reading A Recessionary ‘Feel’…

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Tubes…

  • Banks, Gold & Yields  –NFTRH.com [biiwii comment: so i start a post simply to update the mostly inverse situation in bkx and gold, and i get into a whole ball of wax before it’s done.  check it out.]

 

US Economy & Semi b2b

By NFTRH

Excerpted from the May 24 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 344:

US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend

A quick review for newer subscribers:  In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry.  After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator.  The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.

b2b

For forward looking purposes we note that it is the bookings, not billings that matter.

The graphic is, as usual, from SEMI.org (w/ my mark ups) as is this quote…

Continue reading US Economy & Semi b2b

The Smaller Economy…

By Alhambra Investment Partners

The Smaller Economy Getting Smaller Still

Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month in April, meaning with January’s flat reading that new orders for this important segment of consumer “demand” has been consistently shrinking in all of 2015 so far. New orders for capital goods have been negative year-over-year in all four months. With the pace of shipments just now starting to decelerate, it would appear that without a surge in new orders very soon economic production will have to adjust much lower in the near future.

ABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods ex TransABOOK May 2015 Dur Goods Cap Goods Continue reading The Smaller Economy…

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web