Tag Archives: emerging markets

EM Short Covered

With the caveat that I am very far from the most proficient bear trader around, we note that the short against the EM’s (via EEV) is being covered this morning.

NFTRH/NFTRH+ recommended a bounce to the SMA 50 as a lower risk short entry (I had personally entered sooner) for those interested, and today EEM is getting to a point where I’ve got to take the profit (EEV roughly doubles the percentage).  It’s moving too far from the EMA 10, and could be subject to a snap back soon.  Cash is my favorite thing right now so it is also by far my most heavily held thing.

eem

Emerging Market Stocks & Islamic Extremism

Guest Post by Mark Galasiewski

We have for many years observed a relationship between extremism and bear markets in the stock markets of Muslim nations. For example, this chart shows the deadliest Islamic terrorist attacks graphed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since the start of the index on December 31, 1987. Notice that many the attacks occurred near lows in the index.

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Emerging Markets ETF

While the EM’s still look okay by daily chart (series of higher highs and higher lows) they are starting to break down in SPY units (bottom panel).  It looks like a little bear flag formed at the SMA 50.  Those rooting against the US but cheering for other areas may be disappointed.

eem.spy

Here is a bigger picture view like those NFTRH has been following for months now.  There is a lot of resistance up there.

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Know When to Look for Real Opportunity

Guest Post by Elliott Wave International

Why the Nifty and many other emerging market stocks screamed “Buy!” three months ago

From Elliott Wave International’s February Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast (published Feb. 7):

…Bloomberg reports that “more than $7 billion flowed from ETFs investing in developing-nation assets in January, the most since the securities were created.” Such massive selling…supports our view that emerging markets are ending large-degree three-wave declines.

Conventional observers are asking the question, “Is this 1997 all over again?” (The Economist)

The way we see it, the return of such headlines in January supports another significant low now — from a contrarian perspective.

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Emerging Global Shift

There has been a shift underway (improbably against a stronger US dollar and muted inflation concerns) in the Emerging Markets vs. the US stock market.  The top panel shows the Emerging Markets ETF breaking out on a daily chart.  In the lower panel is EEM vs. SPY for reference.  The ratio has done this before in its bear market, but there it is anyway.

eem.spy

I am fiddling around with chart styles as I am getting a little bored with the plain white ones lately.

Emerging Markets Bounce Back

I was short the EM’s but botched up the trade on a whipsaw just before EEM broke support for good.  Hey, it happens.  When EEM hit the measured target of 37 I took a long trade on the EMF fund.  A modest profit was taken there, and per an NFTRH update yesterday I took a new bear position (EEV) at the high (on EEM, low on EEV).  Risk on the trade is controlled by the respective resistance and support lines.

eem.eev