I was short the EM’s but botched up the trade on a whipsaw just before EEM broke support for good. Hey, it happens. When EEM hit the measured target of 37 I took a long trade on the EMF fund. A modest profit was taken there, and per an NFTRH update yesterday I took a new bear position (EEV) at the high (on EEM, low on EEV). Risk on the trade is controlled by the respective resistance and support lines.
Guest Post by Doug Noland
The evolving EM crisis took a turn for the worse.
Backdrops conductive to crises can drag on for so long – sometimes seemingly forever – as if they’re moving in ultra-slow motion. Invariably, they lull most to sleep. Better yet, such environments even work to embolden the optimists. This is especially the case when policy measures are aggressively employed along the way, repeatedly holding the forces of crisis at bay. In the face of mounting risk, heightened risk-taking and leveraging often work only to exacerbate underlying fragilities. But eventually a critical juncture arrives where newfound momentum has things unwinding at a more frenetic pace. It is the nature of such things that most everyone gets caught totally unprepared.
The Emerging Markets ETF has continued down to confirm a break of support. And yes, I shorted the EM’s (per an NFTRH Update) a few moments after making the previous post noting the breakdown a few days ago. The target remains 37(ish).
The Emerging Market ETF (EEM) is losing an important and clear support level today. NFTRH has been and remains big picture bearish the EM’s along with Copper (similar weekly and monthly charts). But what is happening today is now a short term bearish signal that targets 37 if not reversed… like quickly.
Doctor Copper needs to make a house call to the emerging markets and he needs to prescribe ‘bullish’. MSEMF (lower panel) looks like it is in some kind of a massive topping pattern (it does not look like a bullish consolidation to me) and the problem is that the good Doctor is making the same pattern.
The potential is for a 2008 style deflationary Armageddon in commodities and emerging markets. Now, would the US (and maybe Europe), with their respective funny munny financial chicanery get off scott free, perhaps even getting the big bid as the world rushes out of commodities and EM’s? Well as obnoxious as it sounds, it could happen. Though I wouldn’t bet on it.
Imagine the world rushing to T bonds, amplifying the Fed’s current operation. Imagine US mortgage rates tanking. Imagine the shining new era of Fortress America and its financial apparatus. What was the last ‘new era’, the Dot.coms and the ‘new economy’? Could we have a new one that rejects the old fashioned notion that the US stock market has a copper roof? Sort of the modern edition of the circa 1999 rejection of a ‘brick and mortar’ business model?
Just riffing here. I think commodities and EM’s are a bearish divergence to the US and Europe. But unfortunately, with the Fed in the markets 24/7 now these type of questions need to at least be considered.
European and emerging stock markets have hit targets.