So will it be Italy relief over in Europe tomorrow or will all this media crap start becoming saturated? I mean, when does this mess just say “I’ve had enough” and roll over?
It’s getting a little tiring watching the daily whipsaw dynamics…
Markets Drop on Cyprus Confiscation Plan
Markets Up on Cyprus Relief
Markets Drop on Cyprus Template Talk
Markets Cheer Cyprus Bailout
Markets Drop on Italy Fears
Markets [fill in the blank tomorrow]…
I mean, okay we’re all contrarian wise guys now. It’s a Wall of Worry (WoW) and all that. Gold is just hanging around on the sidelines watching for the saturation point when the ‘relief’ part fails to materialize.
The ratio has made a nice bottoming pattern and is in a daily uptrend. This came at our long-watched lower moving average, the weekly EMA 100.
The weekly chart is still in a downtrend while the daily is trend up and the monthly never left its uptrend. If the weekly keeps chugging higher, gets above the EMA 45 and then resistance at 1.28, we will have some real bull festivities. Weren’t they proclaiming gold’s bull market in euros over a few weeks ago?
Currencies are all acting normal lately. The Yen took an express elevator to its H&S target (making new lows today, however) and the Euro declined right to target off its mini H&S and is now turning up. Uncle Buck meanwhile, needed an over bought breather and is getting one. This is not a conclusive bottom and reversal in the Euro, but it’s looking good so far.
Watch commodities and the ISM’s ‘prices paid’ trend; watch out for sink holes in Goldilocks’ path as she happily skips along; watch chest beating gold bears who think they know how to read long-term charts*; watch the silver CoT (but silver bulls might want a certain loud technical analyst to refrain from making huge proclamations about it… jeez, let it breathe, silver has lower to go first); watch to see if the stock market already took its ‘healthy’ correction or has further near term downside in order to make a solid base for a final drive to SPX high 1500′s.
* TA big papa, stockchart.com’s John Murphy is becoming bearish on gold; as in possible ‘end of bull market’ bearish. He certainly does know how to read charts and is not included in this dismissive comment.
Anyhow, watch this writer continue to manage risk as fully as needed to remain good to go for coming events; and they are coming my friends.
Maybe I should start focusing on currencies. First the Yen, and now the Euro comes right to a downside target NFTRH has had on radar for quite some time, which this blog updated last week. Boink.
Of course the Euro is simply Hammering here, not confirming a bottom. But still, it may be a good trade. USD has followed the gold-silver ratio as expected (and also noted in NFTRH), and now maybe it is time for a short break.