Since February 1 it’s all one market arrayed against one market, Uncle Buck. Maybe it should be called the ‘all but one market’ market. Whatever…
The Euro is closing in on a target (the top downtrend line) we have had on since the bottoming pattern formed during the Euro crisis drama a couple years ago.
Contrary to this hair brained declaration by a talking head on CNBC (“I like the dollar; it’s going to kill gold for sure and I think it’s great for American corporations”) the US dollar has dropped and American corporations like it just fine. That is because American corporations like inflation against a
defl err disinflationary backdrop just fine.
Here is a busy chart from recent NFTRH showing Uncle Buck in a Bear Flag after the big FOMC breakdown, Euro breaking out, Yen broken down from a Symm-Tri and two commodity currencies hanging around at or below resistance.
While gold continues to offer no price protection (people who bought in say… 2003 or so might beg to differ ;-)) for weary casino refugees, it remains the value alternative to a gang of tramped out, played out and frankly, comical paper and digital notes issued by various governments.
These governments have been peddling little more than ‘trust’ since the macro play turned from productivity to a racket of ‘debt and confidence’ somewhere over the last couple or three decades.
For those who care, here is Uncle Buck’s latest status by daily chart.
A Reverse Symmetrical Triangle has formed, which is normally a reversal pattern, which would mean from up to down. But USD is at a strong support area and is over sold.
The weekly view shows Uncle Buck still on a bull signal by the cross of the EMA 10 (green) over the EMA 35. But the Euro broke out of a little topping pattern. Ultimate upside for the Euro is 142 if it remains bullish.
The rest of the motley crew is self-explanatory as shown on the chart. Per the chart breakout I bought the Yen via FXY on Monday’s hard pullback, which means I own something that is inverse to the speculative playground that stock bulls have enjoyed for too long now.
As for the commodity currencies of Australia and Canada, the chart says it all. Aussie especially must find support here or else.
Lots to talk about and talk about it we shall – in depth in the letter – and as the mood strikes out here. We are grinding out a change of character in the markets. I want you to remember the bull wise guys that were touting at the exact wrong time with their “it’s a new secular bull market!” and “it’s a GREAT ROTATION out of bonds and into stocks!” (well, they got it half right) bullshit.
Going forward, understand who the promoters are (incl. in the gold “community”) and who the ‘just want to get it right’ people are. These are difficult markets and anyone touting dogma or pretending to be a genius is going to get ground up. We are all subject to screw ups (my hand is raised) but it is a clear attitude and a willingness to admit you don’t know it all that will see you through the current environment where everything it seems, is in motion in a frenetic way.
US dollar analysis-turned-screed over.
So will it be Italy relief over in Europe tomorrow or will all this media crap start becoming saturated? I mean, when does this mess just say “I’ve had enough” and roll over?
It’s getting a little tiring watching the daily whipsaw dynamics…
Markets Drop on Cyprus Confiscation Plan
Markets Up on Cyprus Relief
Markets Drop on Cyprus Template Talk
Markets Cheer Cyprus Bailout
Markets Drop on Italy Fears
Markets [fill in the blank tomorrow]…
I mean, okay we’re all contrarian wise guys now. It’s a Wall of Worry (WoW) and all that. Gold is just hanging around on the sidelines watching for the saturation point when the ‘relief’ part fails to materialize.