From CNBC (hey look, they have some good content… it’s not all mindless, after all).
Jim O’Neill on the Swiss Franc, the Euro and the US economy…
Our “Pro Service Outlook 2015″ FREE video event introduces you to the near- and long-term forecast for the world’s most popular FOREX markets — and so much more
As the euro clings to the guardrail of a 7- (no, wait) 9- (Doh! there it goes again) now 11-year low, debate over the future of the eurozone’s currency rages on. And in the mix, the ultimate four-letter FOREX word just reared its ugly head: PARITY.
“The euro is likely to reach a 1-1 ratio with the dollar for the first time since 2002.” (Feb. 2, Wall Street Journal)
Amidst the flurry, we’d like to focus your attention on another word — CLARITY — and invite you to take an objective step back and evaluate why the euro is where it is today.
First, you have to go back to the beginning of the euro’s dramatic sell-off, to the early part of last year. At the time, the euro was orbiting a 2.5 year high against the U.S. dollar having soared 15% from its 2012 bottom. The strongest thing we remember about this time, though, was how certain mainstream analysts were in the euro’s ongoing upside potential.
There were, after all, plenty of “fundamental” reasons to embolden the bullish claim, such as: strong eurozone economic data, growing demand for the euro’s perceived safety, and most of all, an accommodative monetary policy by the European Central Bank.
In March 2014, ECB President Mario Draghi gave the ultimate green light to euro bulls: Draghi called the eurozone economy an “island of stability,” and foresaw no need for radical, currency-debasing rescue efforts such as rate cuts or quantitative easing. Here, these news items from the time set the scene:
 Since we are on the subject, I wanted to pass on this simply poetic quote from EWI’s Steve Hochberg. I read it and smiled ear to ear…
Everyone “knows” the [Euro] cannot possibly rally with the ECB printing money and global sovereign interest rates at essentially zero. Or can it? Currency moves often create great Elliott waves because in 2015 the very nature of a currency is amorphous. None are rooted to anything tangible, such as gold. They are simply “quotes” relative to other currencies and therefore a manifestation of ephemeral states of mind. The collective changes in states of mind are not random: they are patterned according to the Wave Principle model.
He then goes on with his forecast for USD and Euro, but I wanted to highlight this because he just spoke my language perfectly (better than I could, actually), aside from the Elliott Wave stuff.
Experienced traders say that sometimes, just 2 or 3 good trades make their entire year.
True: If you get in early and ride the trend for a few weeks or months, that may be all you need. That’s why having a perspective on the markets is so important.
That’s also why Elliott Wave International hand-picked the best clips from their trader-focused “Outlook 2015″ video series to share with you and give you a fresh perspective in 5 key markets: EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, Crude Oil & Gold
Access this free video series now and get new video forecasts by 4 of EWI’s veteran Pro Service analysts.
Each of the four videos will show you the market’s big Elliott wave picture, give you a forecast for the weeks and months to come — plus several short, punchy, market analysis lessons in Elliott waves/technical analysis you can use again and again.
By Tom McCellan
February 12, 2015
There is information about the future of the euro, and it is hidden in plain sight, right in the chart of crude oil prices.
This week’s chart reveals that relationship, which is yet another example in a long series of what I call “liquidity wave” relationships. That refers to the phenomenon of a price structure appearing in one market’s price plot, and then appearing again sometime later in another. I liken it to an ocean wave appearing at the end of a pier, and then hitting the beach several seconds later. If you can figure out what price series represents the end of the pier, and what other one responds later, that can be terribly useful information.
Now and again history reaches an inflection point. Statesman and mere politicians, as the case may be, find themselves confronted with fraught circumstances and stark choices. February 2015 is one such moment.
For its part, Greece stands at a fork in the road. Syriza can move aggressively to recover Greece’s democratic sovereignty or it can desperately cling to the faltering currency and financial machinery of the Euro zone. But it can’t do both.
So by the time the current onerous bailout agreement expires at month end, Greece must have repudiated its “bailout debt” and be on the off-ramp from the euro. Otherwise, it will have no hope of economic recovery or restoration of self-governance, and Syriza will have betrayed its mandate.
Moreover, the stakes extend far beyond its own borders. If the Greeks do not take a stand for their own dignity and independence at what amounts to a financial Thermopylae, neither will the rest of Europe ever escape from the dysfunctional, autocratic, impoverishing superstate regime that has metastasized in Brussels and Frankfurt under cover of the “European Project”.
Guest Post by Michael Ashton
The focus over the last few days has clearly been central bank follies. In just the last week:
Guest Post by Tim Knight
A fellow Sloper was kind enough to send me this post for you all……
The Fundamentals for a strong US Dollar and a weak Euro are many:
Guest Post by Tom McClellan
January 02, 2015
The slide in the value of the euro currency in 2014 was epic, and it makes me leery about wanting to catch a falling knife. But there are 3 big clues that an upturn for the value of the euro is coming. How much of an upturn is not indicated, but it should at least be a noticeable upturn in the charts.