ha ha ha… among the usual ‘blah blah blah’…
“To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”
Let me gaze into my crystal ball, with the confidence of a genuine guru* and the vision of a mystical Swami. Sifting through my notes about leading indicators, low unemployment, but also cratering public confidence, I see… (not that you should give a damn what one faulty little participant sees)… but bear with me now as I render the great forecast…
I see the Federal Reserve folding again today, perhaps with some stern words imploring us to stay vigilant for a rate hike coming before year end. In this scenario another small chink in the armor of impenetrable post-2011 confidence in these clowns would be had.
Until today I had actually been leaning toward the other scenario, that the Fed finally comes through in a show of strength, all the while with QE 4 in its back pocket. Actually, I am about 55%-45%, so the rate hold view is just a small lean.
The reason for the shift actually has little to do with the reasons we might find for a rate hike or rate hold. It has more to do with the stock market, which has chosen to stay on our plan, laid out weeks ago, for a strong post mini-hysteria bounce. In other words (and this is still a guru-like prediction here, which you should always treat as a side show), an FOMC roll over could provide the necessary burst of euphoria to get us to and perhaps even through our Resistance #2 (SPX 2040) and burnish peoples’ happiness again.
That could be a great bearish setup.
* You’re right of course, there is no such thing! Only people promoting themselves as such with a big boost from the mainstream media, which is inherently lazy in its sourcing.