Tag Archives: Gold

Key Moment for Gold-Silver Ratio

By Biiwii

[edit] By the way, you might want to check out this NFTRH 363 excerpt in which we go through some of Martin Armstrong’s views on gold and talk probably a little too much about my own.  :-(  Macrocosm Revisited

I have had a target on the gold-silver ratio of low 80’s to 90.  Then on Friday the GSR did this, putting that target in question (it hit 81, but I was thinking higher).

gold-silver ratio

Here it is today, converted to GLD-SLV…

Continue reading Key Moment for Gold-Silver Ratio

Silver Prices Spike, But…

By Monetary Metals

Silver Prices Spike, But What Demand?

For a few frenzied minutes, while everyone was sleeping, the price of silver spiked 56 cents. Well, at least the West Coast of America was sleeping. It began at 8:30 in New York, where presumably most traders were not sleeping. And of course, it was afternoon here in London (where Monetary Metals just held a seminar). The catalyst was a news release: the non-farm payroll numbers.

$0.56, or 3.8%, is a big move for a whole day. It happened in 15 minutes (and most of the move occurred during 3 distinct minutes).

In addition to the big price move, there is one other fact silver analysts are pondering. There is a real shortage of silver coins.

Let’s digress for a moment. We are not exactly known for our belief in the rumors that often swirl around precious metals. How do we know for sure that coins are scarce? We watch spreads. There is always a spread (called a premium in this market) between coins and spot silver. Here’s a graph of the Eagle premium asked by Monex.

Continue reading Silver Prices Spike, But…

NFTRH 363 Out Now

By Biiwii

We have been successfully managing an ‘in motion’ market since the August festivities kicked off.  It is October and Money Managers (NAAIM), Newsletter Writers (Investors Intelligence) are thoroughly spooked and Small Speculators are thoroughly short the market.  It’s a perfect contrarian setup.

Meanwhile, over in Goldbugsville there is a lot going on as well.  NFTRH 363 is 30 pages of commentary and in depth analysis on all of this and also gets its geek on (with the aid of FloatingPath.com‘s awesome graphical breakdowns) and gets inside the September Payrolls report in order to flesh out the dynamics in a flagging economy.

NFTRH 363, a very helpful market management report if I do say so myself… out now.

nftrh 363

Pure Gold & Soggy Dollars

By Monetary Metals

We’re going to be introducing some new formats. One of them is quick article links, with the good ones labelled Pure Gold and the bad ones labelled Soggy Dollars.

Pure Gold

When a Fed-induced boom turns to bust: “In the lynch-mob atmosphere that inevitably follows the bust cycle of Fed-induced business cycles, it was not hard to convince Americans that the corporate bankruptcies and the subsequent recession were the handiwork of criminal executives.” Of course, this sentiment prevails today too. Look for the coming “corporate crime wave“.

A Soggy Dollar

The headline reads, “China Bought Gold With Proceeds From Record Sale Of US Treasurys”. It’s been in the news for a while: China is selling Treasurys (i.e. dollars). The PBoC is forced to sell dollars and buy yuan, to prevent a yuan crash as people are selling yuan. However, many mistake this for China “de-dollarizing” in favor [of] gold.

According to this article, China sold $83B of Treasurys (i.e. dollars). And how much gold did they buy? Less than $600M, or 0.7%.

Prediction: Gold and Ratio Up, Stocks Down

By Monetary Metals

[Biiwii comment: While I personally don’t like making predictions, I have put this post up regardless, because once I commit to a guest author I do not edit or filter their viewpoints.  FWIW however, I generally agree with Mr. Weiner’s assessment of the gold-silver ratio’s target as current NFTRH (and Biiwii) noted targets are ‘low 80’s to 90’; and we also are on a “stocks down” path currently.  Also see Catching Up on Some Gold Ratios just posted at NFTRH.com this morning]

The price of gold moved up moderately, and the price of silver moved down a few cents this week. However, there were some interesting fireworks in the middle of the week. Tuesday, the prices dropped and Thursday the prices of the metals popped $23 and $0.34 respectively.

Everyone can judge the sentiment prevailing in gold and silver articles for themselves, but we think there is a growing feeling of optimism (that is a renewed fall in the dollar, which most think is a rise in gold). This goes along with a sense that the long bull run in the stock market is rolling over.

Continue reading Prediction: Gold and Ratio Up, Stocks Down

Gold and Silver: Price Moves & Term Structures

By Monetary Metals

The prices of the metals moved up a bunch this week, with gold + $32 and silver +$0.55. We have seen some discussion of gold backwardation in the context of scarcity, and hence setting expectations of higher prices. That’s good, as the swings from contango to backwardation and back are the only way to understand changing supply and demand in the market.

You should be cautious about trading yesterday’s news. There was indeed backwardation in gold and silver. However, the cobasis is a sensitive indicator. It predicts the likely path of the price, but you should get an updated picture before buying based on an old reading after a sizeable price move.

In this Report, we’ll look at both metals bases, as well as their cobasis term structures. So read on…

First, here is the graph of the metals’ prices.

The Prices of Gold and Silver
letter sep 20 prices, gold and silver

We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can’t tell them whether the globe, on net, is hoarding or dishoarding.

Continue reading Gold and Silver: Price Moves & Term Structures

Gold vs…

By Biiwii

Note:  Hey, go check out the new NFTRH.com.  I think it’s pretty cool.

An update on Gold vs. stock markets, as at yesterday’s close.  These charts have improved today, but there is still no conclusive change in trend in gold vs. stock markets.  There could be some short-term chop if for example, SPX decides to rise again (I am not necessarily buying – or should I say selling? – today’s post-FOMC drop, though I have started to position that way, while holding a few longs that are doing just fine today) to the upside target of 2040 +/-.

[confusing language alert:  the above attempts to say that I still hold a few longs but started shorting the market on yesterday’s post-FOMC hysterics]

Gold vs. S&P 500

gold vs. spx

Gold vs. Euro 50…

gold vs. euro stoxx 50

Gold vs. Toronto…

gold vs. tsx

Make no mistake, gold sector fundamentals are looking good and the macro fundamentals are slowly creeping along.  But nothing worth its while happens in a flash.  This is a long grind (boy don’t I know it) to a new macro picture.  Meanwhile, the “community” has burped up the likes of this…

jim sinclair

and this…

Plunge Protection Team Losing Control of Markets -Jim Sinclair

Per this, lately…

Man, That’s Cheesy

And now today the “community” is glad handing itself in similar, but far less egregious fashion as it did in 2013 immediately after the Fed rolled over and punted on withdrawing QE 3.

Scary Gold Bug Article, on Cue

Hey look, just because I am getting more bullish on gold’s fundamental picture it does not mean I am going to try to make nicey nice with people (i.e. the “community”) who have guided to ruin the average gold bug looking for supposed expertise, for years now.  Besides, the sector is still nowhere, technically.

Let me see Gold vs. SPX blast upward and Treasury yield dynamics change trend and then we’ll bring out our own pom poms, though they’ll never be as brightly colored as the perma-poms.

[edit]  Well, it just got a little more egregious.  Here is a screenshot of a comment below the ‘glad handing’ article linked above, from the Gold Report.  These guys just can’t seem to help themselves.  Here is what I need to tell you; all through the bear market when certain gold bugs chest thump or try to get you to buy their view, things have not gone so well for those who took the hook.  Maybe it’ll be different this time.  Cue the stopped clock…


[edit 2]  Oh wait, isn’t the commenter a principal at The Gold Report?  Isn’t Streetwise affiliated with tGR?  Wow, an inside scoop on what Jeb Handwerger thinks.  Wow, I stand corrected for my wise assed skepticism.  I can speak like this because I’d never get put on the Gold Report, anyway.  That was after all, the entity that headlined an unfortunate article associated with Eric Sprott last year…

An Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices: Eric Sprott

I can’t stand this and am now getting in a bad mood over it.  So in service to mental health, I leave the subject.