Tag Archives: Gold

Response to Kyle

[edit]  It’s a little promo-ish, but I did not solicit it and the whole back and forth is important IMO in delineating the boundaries between b/s and rationality…

Gary – I just wanted to say thank you for your very thoughtful public response to my email. I honestly don’t know of anyone else like you who would take the time to do that.

By the way, I like and appreciate your candid style of writing. I would be upset if you ever changed. Your willingness to call it like you see it is refreshing and why I became a subscriber.

You are right. There probably isn’t much on which we disagree, but certain things irk me and I feel the need to say something. I just can’t stand the emphasis placed on the dollar index, which is a completely made-up basket that essentially measures the “strength” of crappy green paper versus other colorful pieces of worthless paper. It’s silly.

That said, I do understand now what you were saying. Yes, people have been fooled into buying commodities and related equities in anticipation of a “dollar collapse.” That is true. Anyone holding coal, iron ore, copper, or oil stocks has been wiped out. And the Sinclair predictions for $50,000 gold and hyperinflation call from John Williams of Shadow Stats by such and such a date are quite lame and not credible at all.

Anyway, I hope you don’t change the way you write one bit. You are like a refuge for us in this age of non-stop BS propaganda.

As posted at NFTRH.com…

With his kind permission, I would like to publicly respond to a critique I got from subscriber, Kyle. This is not the first bone he has had to pick with me and if I am doing my job well, it won’t be the last that either he or others pick. Now, pissing off subscribers (my customers) is not something I want to do routinely, but I have a way of communicating that is just that, my way of communicating.

In that communication there are all kinds of buzz words and phrases I’ve made up, like Armageddon ’08, Inflation onDemand, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance and probably 50 others over the years that just popped in my head and got popped right down into NFTRH, the websites or both. Then there is the Federal Reserve and the Outer Limits shtick and a hundred different ways to flog Fed officials (Good Cops/Bad Cops, etc.).

Those instances noted above don’t seem to upset people, but when I mention cults it starts getting dicey because so many of us identify ourselves, through ideology, to firmly held beliefs and cults well, they depend on an ideological grip on their members.  [edit] FWIW, I have my own firmly held beliefs, but I consciously try to make sure they don’t screw me up when managing the markets on an interim basis.

Continue reading Response to Kyle

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • Would a Gold Standard Brighten Economic Outcomes?  –Big Picture  [biiwii comment: the old argument… the author’s conclusion is laughable as practically applied by today’s CB’s (“a gold standard is not needed to preserve price stability as long as a country’s central bank is independent and has a clear mandate to achieve price stability), but a gold standard for a modern financial and economic system is not the answer; discipline and transparency are the answers in large part imo; esp. discipline, which is lacking world-wide]

 

Around the Web

  • Gold… and a Ramble  –NFTRH [biiwii comment: he’s bitching and moaning again about the misperceptions game surrounding the monetary value relic]
  • Bracing for Stagnation  –Raghuram Rajan  [biiwii comment: errr… one of my heroes. thx for the link, Hammer]

 

Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector

Improving Macro Backdrop

In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week’s NFTRH report.

The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.

During the worst of the gold sector cyclical bear market we used Gold vs. Commodities to gauge a higher low to the 2011 low, which despite perceptions of the time, kept our longest-term macro view intact (as noted to subscribers several times, if Au-CCI had broken down we’d have had to admit that the view had failed, no if’s and’s or but’s).

The moving averages have triggered, a higher low has been made and the long-term thesis is being confirmed.

au.cci

Hence, a bullish stance on quality gold mining operations (a unique counter-cyclical sector) has finally come about and the relevance of this chart of HUI vs. the S&P 500 now means more than simply one market crashing in terms of the other.  It means RISK vs. REWARD is on the side of the counter-cyclical gold mining industry vs. the cyclical broad US stock market.

Continue reading Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector

NFTRH 326 Out Now

There is a lot happening across global financial markets.  We go in depth into US stocks, review global stocks, make sharp points about commodities, cover macro indicators in depth and get very detailed on the precious metals.  A relatively easy reading 38 pages (lots of graphics) and a clear focus.

nftrh326

Big Picture View

Guest Post by the Fine Folks at NFTRH

With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture. Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts.

Let’s start with currencies, since they are a reflection upon global policy making, which has been unprecedented in its direct market interference over the last few years.

Nominal Charts – Currency

We noted the hot air patch in the Canada dollar last year. I had thought CDW might stop and find support at 85, which is a measurement from the topping pattern; but so far, no dice.

cdw

Fellow commodity currency Aussie is at what should be a strong support zone.

xad

[edit]  evidently my uninformed use of stockcharts.com’s symbol for the Rupee is incorrect.  I have had input that this chart is an inverted view of Rupee-USD.  Looking into this.

Continue reading Big Picture View

Around the Web

  • Why Gold May Finally be Turning Higher  –MarketAnthropology  [biiwii comment:  ref: MA’s commodity view over the last year; I don’t always agree w/ MA, but I do find it to be one of the most intelligent blogs out there]

 

Around the Web

  • NFTRH continues to work the ‘Gappy New Year’ theme:  Gappy & Happy[biiwii comment: with all the subtlety of a sledge hammer]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web