Tag Archives: Gold

4 Safe Haven Investments to Replace Swissy & Gold

Trying not to pre-judge the title as flat out stupid, let’s proceed to the article…

Four safe-haven investments to replace Swiss francs and gold –MarketWatch

Where to park your money until the next crisis blows over

Greece is on the edge of a dramatic exit from the euro EURUSD, -0.09% . The Russians are meddling in the Ukraine again. The oil price CLH5, -0.46% has been hammered, creating an arc of instability across the Middle East. The global economy is, as is so often the case, poised on the edge of another crisis. If it happens, money will start fleeing to safe havens, somewhere where it can be safely parked to ride out the turmoil.

The tension builds…

But where’s it gonna go? For several generations, the answer to that question was easy enough. In a crisis, you parked your cash in the Swiss franc USDCHF, -0.12%  , or else in U.S. Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.97%  , or in gold GCH5, +0.22%  . The trouble is, none of those safe havens are as “safe” as they once were.

Yes, hello… I’d like to report a casino patron sighting in the MSM?  Gold is in a bear market so it is not safe?  In other words, because the price of monetary insurance is down during what you claim is a crisis it should be avoided?  Hello?  Hello?  Is there anybody in there?  I said hello… can you hear me Joe?

Continue reading 4 Safe Haven Investments to Replace Swissy & Gold

Around the Web

[edit]  Might as well add in some of our own $.02 on the yield curve, S&P 500 and gold…  Risk ‘ON’  –NFTRH

 

NFTRH 329 Out Now

nftrh329How to promo… how to promo?  NFTRH 329 took a hard look at the realities of what happened last week and despite an end of week reversal (below SPX key resistance of 2165) it found that at week’s end the bulls and the risk ‘ON’ contingent regained their footing.

Going the other way, the rise in short-term yields vs. long-term yields was gold bearish and not friendly to Team Risk ‘OFF’.

A really good market report doing the work it has to do every step of the way.  Of course we are in the volatile ‘swing baby, swing’ market so we’ll be ready to adjust as always over the coming week.  The key is to be in proper position for when the ‘swing’ phase consolidation ends.

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • What the market doom and gloomers fail to grasp about anemic growth  –Nouriel Roubini [biiwii comment:  still fighting a war that was already won – against hyperinflationists and commodity mega bulls. this link is included to show what the mainstream takes as gospel from a rock star economist. a good amount of this article is hogwash, you can pick out the b/s for yourself ;-) ]
  • Will the Top Callers Get Clowned Again?  –Josh Brown  [biiwii comment: that remains to be seen josh, but as NFTRH just illustrated for its subscribers, there is a potential scenario for a bear trap and bounce]

 

NFTRH 328 Out Now

Another solid report this week.  I know that because it helped me out yet again in trying to understand all the components in play across markets; all the tops spinning around on the table.

Stock market sentiment is an issue as markets continue at an important technical decision point.  The precious metals have short-term technical parameters but more importantly, they have some pretty important long-term signals coming in.  Well, gold and even more so, gold miners.  Silver is not something I am personally excited about on the big picture.

The biggest picture view, which has been an uninterrupted global economic contraction is intact and getting stronger.  From that spring so many other items for extrapolation and strategy.

nftrh328

Response to Kyle

[edit]  It’s a little promo-ish, but I did not solicit it and the whole back and forth is important IMO in delineating the boundaries between b/s and rationality…

Gary – I just wanted to say thank you for your very thoughtful public response to my email. I honestly don’t know of anyone else like you who would take the time to do that.

By the way, I like and appreciate your candid style of writing. I would be upset if you ever changed. Your willingness to call it like you see it is refreshing and why I became a subscriber.

You are right. There probably isn’t much on which we disagree, but certain things irk me and I feel the need to say something. I just can’t stand the emphasis placed on the dollar index, which is a completely made-up basket that essentially measures the “strength” of crappy green paper versus other colorful pieces of worthless paper. It’s silly.

That said, I do understand now what you were saying. Yes, people have been fooled into buying commodities and related equities in anticipation of a “dollar collapse.” That is true. Anyone holding coal, iron ore, copper, or oil stocks has been wiped out. And the Sinclair predictions for $50,000 gold and hyperinflation call from John Williams of Shadow Stats by such and such a date are quite lame and not credible at all.

Anyway, I hope you don’t change the way you write one bit. You are like a refuge for us in this age of non-stop BS propaganda.

As posted at NFTRH.com…

With his kind permission, I would like to publicly respond to a critique I got from subscriber, Kyle. This is not the first bone he has had to pick with me and if I am doing my job well, it won’t be the last that either he or others pick. Now, pissing off subscribers (my customers) is not something I want to do routinely, but I have a way of communicating that is just that, my way of communicating.

In that communication there are all kinds of buzz words and phrases I’ve made up, like Armageddon ’08, Inflation onDemand, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance and probably 50 others over the years that just popped in my head and got popped right down into NFTRH, the websites or both. Then there is the Federal Reserve and the Outer Limits shtick and a hundred different ways to flog Fed officials (Good Cops/Bad Cops, etc.).

Those instances noted above don’t seem to upset people, but when I mention cults it starts getting dicey because so many of us identify ourselves, through ideology, to firmly held beliefs and cults well, they depend on an ideological grip on their members.  [edit] FWIW, I have my own firmly held beliefs, but I consciously try to make sure they don’t screw me up when managing the markets on an interim basis.

Continue reading Response to Kyle

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • Would a Gold Standard Brighten Economic Outcomes?  –Big Picture  [biiwii comment: the old argument… the author’s conclusion is laughable as practically applied by today’s CB’s (“a gold standard is not needed to preserve price stability as long as a country’s central bank is independent and has a clear mandate to achieve price stability), but a gold standard for a modern financial and economic system is not the answer; discipline and transparency are the answers in large part imo; esp. discipline, which is lacking world-wide]

 

Around the Web

  • Gold… and a Ramble  –NFTRH [biiwii comment: he’s bitching and moaning again about the misperceptions game surrounding the monetary value relic]
  • Bracing for Stagnation  –Raghuram Rajan  [biiwii comment: errr… one of my heroes. thx for the link, Hammer]

 

Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector

Improving Macro Backdrop

In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week’s NFTRH report.

The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.

During the worst of the gold sector cyclical bear market we used Gold vs. Commodities to gauge a higher low to the 2011 low, which despite perceptions of the time, kept our longest-term macro view intact (as noted to subscribers several times, if Au-CCI had broken down we’d have had to admit that the view had failed, no if’s and’s or but’s).

The moving averages have triggered, a higher low has been made and the long-term thesis is being confirmed.

au.cci

Hence, a bullish stance on quality gold mining operations (a unique counter-cyclical sector) has finally come about and the relevance of this chart of HUI vs. the S&P 500 now means more than simply one market crashing in terms of the other.  It means RISK vs. REWARD is on the side of the counter-cyclical gold mining industry vs. the cyclical broad US stock market.

Continue reading Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector