Tag Archives: Gold

NFTRH 347 Out Now

By Biiwii

There is short-term and there is long-term.  Short-term, an indicator of positive inflationary cyclicality looks set to bounce.  Long-term, it is locked well below key resistance.  Joining this long-term Gloomy Gus indicator is another that we used in 2013 to gauge an oncoming economic UP cycle.  It is working its way toward economic DOWN, slowly but surely over many months.

There’s lots of other valuable stuff in #347 as well, including market calls/opinions, stock highlights, interest rates and well, the most comprehensive kit and kaboodle you’re going to find out there.  But then, I am biased.

NFTRH 347 really helped me get my orientations focused.  That’s why I love doing this work.

nftrh347

Stocks Upbeat, US Dollar Downbeat

By Biiwii

US stocks poised for upbeat day as dollar slumps

Well okay, the media has its rationalization, but stocks were obviously at a bounce point yesterday.

Stepping away from the stupid noise that the media inject each and every day, there is a tie-in between the US dollars’s resumed correction, a speculated upon ‘C’ leg up in commodities, the fact that silver vs. gold has room to bounce (but is big picture bearish) and oh yes, this chart’s all-important message…

tyx

‘Inflation expectations’ appear to still be well in play.  But at around the time the ‘Continuum’ above reaches the limiter (AKA 100 month EMA), other indicators should also be at potential termination points.  We finely detailed the plan in an NFTRH update this morning, but for our purposes here, we’ll just note that all of this is counter-trend as it stands now.  So don’t get lost along the way.  Stay on your indicators.

Is Gold Hated Enough?

By Biiwii

goldAn article by Mark Hulbert jogged the title’s question into my mind:

This Bear Market in Gold Still Has too Many Bulls

With respect to the reasons for owning gold, I never flinch when taking a long-term value perspective.  In the monetary and financial world gold is insurance and insurance is something you buy, but hope to never need.  The value of insurance is in one of its definitions:  “a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality”.

It is good news that this ‘thing’ has not been needed as modern policy making has worked to mostly desired effects, as asset markets have been pumped by inflationary policies that have not (yet) had a commensurate level of risk discovery.

It is bad news that this ‘thing’ will be needed in the future because risk – especially when mainlined into the system through brute force policy – is always discovered, eventually.

It will be very good news for the relative few who have kept perspective and balanced the bear market risks in gold and the gold stock sector with the coming potentials.  As with any bear market, there have been perma bulls calling bullish all the way down.  But at some point, the new breed – the perma bears – are going to be exterminated.

The message of the big picture work done in NFTRH (as summarized in a recent eLetter/NFTRH.com post) is that the time is coming, but for short-term speculators, risks remain.  So as I have written for what seems like forever, individuals absolutely must understand who they are and what their goals are or risk being lost along the way to the bear market’s conclusion and the new bull market’s beginning.

When I read analysis talking about how strong US employment data are going to send large institutions running for the inflation protection of gold I tend to agree with Hulbert.  When I read things like Modi + Indian Wedding Season = Gold Bull I tend to agree with Hulbert.  When I read about China’s voracious demand for gold and that you’d better buy with the smart money, I tend to agree with Hulbert.

I won’t go into all the reasons why ‘gold as an inflation hedge’ is a faulty outlook.  This post is not about that oft-belabored point.  I will simply ask you to beware of the anti-USD obsession as applies to gold and the inflation hysterics that usually go with it.  Best case, gold would be just another item amongst commodities if the play is anti-USD.

We await a counter cyclical environment that may well include a firm US dollar.  This would not make sense to the still intact legions of pre-programmed devotees in the gold “community”.  And right there is another reason why on the short-term, Hulbert may be right.  Opportunity is coming, but it is not going to wear bells on its heels, a big smile on its face and dance around in front of you until it is understood.

Central Banks Predict Gold Market…

By Bob Prechter

Central Banks Predict Gold Market – But Not The Way You Think

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from a new multimedia report, “The New Financial Theory that Could Make the Difference in Your Investing Success,” from Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest financial forecasting firm. Authored by Robert Prechter, the full report demonstrates the failures of the modern investing paradigm and suggests a radically new approach that makes the difference in your investing success. Click here to read and watch the full multimedia report — it’s free.

Back when I worked at Merrill Lynch in the 1970s, I studied a number of data series useful for technical analysis. Bob Farrell had odd-lot buying and selling data going back decades, a rare treasure. Hardly anyone was buying and selling in odd lots anymore, but I wanted to see if any useful pattern emerged.

Continue reading Central Banks Predict Gold Market…

Gold Isn’t Cheap…

By Steve Saville

Gold Isn’t Cheap, but nor Should it Be

Although it is not possible to determine an objective value for gold (the value of everything is subjective), by looking at how the metal has performed relative to other things throughout history it is possible to arrive at some reasonable conclusions as to whether gold is currently expensive, cheap, or ‘in the right ballpark’. In particular, gold’s market price can be measured relative to the prices of other commodities, the stock market, the price of an average house, the earnings of an average worker, and the real (purchasing-power-adjusted) money supply. In a recent TSI commentary I looked at the last of these, that is, I looked at gold’s price relative to the real money supply, and arrived at the conclusion that gold’s current price was about 20% above ‘fair value’. I’ll now take a look at gold relative to other commodities.

Continue reading Gold Isn’t Cheap…

NFTRH 346 Out Now

By Biiwii

Here is the note from the email to subscribers that accompanied the full report…

“I thought is was time to bulk up a bit to a 30+ page report this week. We review some of the key indicators and try to clearly define the status of US and global stocks, precious metals, commodities, currencies and even interest rates. In fact, I think US long-term interest rates are a key so many other items. The ‘Continuum’ AKA the monthly view of the 30 year yield is back front and center in the analysis, with a target of 3.6% to 3.7%. But yields are not near an indication of what the media will hype as a new bear market in Treasury bonds and an age of rising interest rates. Not saying it can’t happen, it sure can. But I am saying that it is not nearly indicated, just as it was not indicated during the last rate hysteria or the one before that or the one before that…”

Well, interest rates were just a component of this comprehensive report.  But they are a key.

NFTRH 346 out now.

nftrh346

Don’t Worry About Gold Confiscation…

By Steve Saville

Worry About Capital Controls, Not Gold Confiscation

Due to the confiscation of gold by the Roosevelt Administration in 1933, there remains an undercurrent of concern among gold owners that the US government or another major government will confiscate gold in the future. However, the risk of this happening is presently so low as to not be worth taking into account. Of far greater risk are capital controls and the confiscation of cash.

Gold confiscation is not a realistic threat under the current monetary system, because under the current system gold isn’t money. To further explain, the reason that gold was confiscated in the US in 1933 was that gold, at that time and place, was money, with the dollar essentially being a receipt for gold. Consequently, the amount of gold in the banking system placed a limitation on the quantity of dollars. By making gold ownership illegal the US government not only prevented the public from removing gold from the banking system, thus eliminating one of the superficial deflationary forces, it also pushed additional gold into the banking system and paved the way for greater monetary inflation.

Continue reading Don’t Worry About Gold Confiscation…

Uranium & Gold, Part 2

By Tom McClellan

Uranium and Gold, Part II

Uranium prices lead gold prices
June 05, 2015

Last week, I wrote about the relationship between gold prices and uranium prices, and how looking at it a certain way there might be a bearish message for uranium prices.  I received a few emails, first notifying me that you actually can trade uranium on the Toronto exchange, under the symbol U.TO.  That is for the Uranium Participation Corp, which invests directly in uranium oxides.  It is like CEF or GLD for gold bullion, only for uranium.

Continue reading Uranium & Gold, Part 2

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Tubes…

  • Banks, Gold & Yields  –NFTRH.com [biiwii comment: so i start a post simply to update the mostly inverse situation in bkx and gold, and i get into a whole ball of wax before it’s done.  check it out.]

 

Gold Miners ETF Bullish?

By Biiwii

This gold miners ETF has a bullish (bottoming) look to it.  Unfortunately, it is the 3X bear fund DUST.  The key level is 15, because if it breaks that it targets 19.  As of now, it lurks below so the target is not active.

dust

Here is the miner ETF, GDX with its equivalent support.  A loss of that support targets the March low around 17.50.

gdx

There have been plenty of reasons to be cautious on the precious metals on the short-term.  CoT data, Treasury yield relationships (long-term trends), gold vs. the stock market and gold stocks rising with commodities (and against the USD), which is not a preferred long-term bullish backdrop for the miners.

Now if only someone would write an article telling us about how gold is going to rocket on inflation fears by institutional money based on a strong jobs report (next one is on Friday) and we should buy buy buy the miners.  Oh wait, someone already did that before the last jobs report.

Hey look, the above patterns could become invalidated at a moment’s notice.  Happens all the time.  But the actual fundamentals that matter are not yet in line.  Interestingly, gold and USD are both down today, and when it is time for a real bullish stance, they will correlate more often than people might think.

Morning Metals Report

By Ino.com

Morning Metals Report

metalsMETALS: August gold futures closed up $5.40 an ounce at $1,194.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

July silver futures closed up $0.10 at $16.78 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Silver bears have the near-term technical advantage.

July N.Y. copper closed up 180 points at 273.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. Prices hit a five-week low Monday. The key “outside markets” were bullish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bears have the near-term technical advantage.

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