It’s probably getting about time to take the profit on this one. It’s only 4.5% but it’s my largest single stock position. As noted previously, I have a few fundamental longs, a chart long (bull flag) on a Semi stock and Mr. Bounce Long, Google. It’s always fun when people perceived as bearish like me do their buying amidst bull pukage and it works out.
GOOGL is probably going to boink the lower wedge line, but I may think about profit taking soon. In this racket you never know. When I covered the shorts on EWP, SPY and sold FAZ, I thought I might be leaving something on the table from the short side. Well, no not really. It was a good time to dump the shorts. Now I have the same thing going on with Google here, in reverse. Got to love the markets.  Though a look at the weekly chart and a comparison to the QQQ makes me think twice… dohhh! Be decisive Gary! Well, it’s a free site and thus I am not paid for decisiveness here.
I sold it last week, having to ignore the greedy voice in my head (yeh, I still have that guy) and today Google is declining toward support. Looking at a 50% to 62% retrace of the initial rally off the April-May bullish pattern.
 This sounds like it was some kind of ‘called’ trade, but it was not. The bottom pattern below was simply mentioned in a public post back before it broke out.
Taking profit on GOOGL, as it is already above the measured target of the little bottoming pattern and approaching resistance. A quick 7% trade.
Using the big picture charting method shown in the previous post for a couple of indexes, we apply it to today’s star stock, GOOG and see that it is approaching a measurement of its own. If only it were as easy as calculate target, deploy capital and wait for payday.
Google, Microsoft and AMD joined Intel, which helped shave the SOX yesterday in an otherwise bullish market, in the earnings disappointment sweepstakes.
But then again, this market is all about its obsession with Fed policy isn’t it? If earnings season disappoints it keeps alive our biggest picture scenario, which is economic contraction being fought by inflationary monetary policy.
That is all I care about because sooner or later if confirmed, the correct investment themes (or lack thereof) will present themselves within this environment. One thing I will say is that inflation proponents – especially in the precious metals – did not need a blow out Google quarter and a robustly cheering US stock market. So that’s a √ in the fundamental column there.
Now, about crude oil… the next target is 110 and it needs to hold around there.
GOOG was charted several months ago showing a breakout and retest. Well, it went on and on and on and has now come to what would be the most optimistic measured target at 830. Just sayin’.
GOOG weekly chart
I’ve seen worse correlations than the weekly charts of Google and Royal Gold. GOOG is running ahead by a few weeks in this correlation.
I did indeed buy a little Google based on the chart shown a few days ago, for an anticipated Santa rally. It’s an okay company with a stock chart that showed it had tested a huge support zone. My favorite tech company is Apple, but I wouldn’t touch this stock with a 10′ pole. Not until the noted support area near 400, anyway.
Think about the herd that piled into this bubble. How bad will it get as more and more of them realize the bubble popped? I am sure the wise guy traders are all out and the more alert mom & pop investors. But what about that final tier folks who only peek at their portfolio every 3 months when a statement comes? If AAPL could get a quick, panicked drop to 400 it could be a good trade if the regular stock market is still strong at the time. I’ve got it on watch.
Several weeks ago we looked at the chart of Google in the newsletter after the initial hard breakdown, to gauge what may lay ahead. The idea was a hard break, then recovery, then renewed decline (i.e. an A-B-C type correction) down to massive support.
GOOG is among the things I might like to ‘long’ for a few weeks or more, depending on FOMC and its aftermath.
Well I did and what comes up first is this: USF students show strong support for Obama again
I guess Google hasn’t sent spiders or robots to its sites with its own chart on them. The chart says that GOOG has strong support in the 625 to 650 range and is in line with the idea that the markets are merely pausing for an October fright fest, but maybe not done yet on the upside.