GOOGL was an NFTRH+ trade idea on Feb. 17. The target is 590, but I am going to do what I often do and sell below that target. I am not going to be greedy in this market. By “this market” I mean ‘this market with the really lousy sentiment backdrop': Market Sentiment Hideously Over Bullish. Over bullish does not mean ready to correct, but it does mean risk vs. reward is very bad and well, it simply means over bullish.
I have only traded GOOGL long previously and see no reason to be greedy here. I am taking a profit on a short before it hits the old S/T bottoming pattern (shaded) that I had used as a bullish marker previously. This is the chart from Friday that showed the break down.
We have been following the DJINET by this weekly chart in NFTRH. Today it’s breaking the trend line after a couple previous attempts. Go have a look at perhaps my favorite company in this whole wide world, internet king Google. It’s chart sucks.
It’s probably getting about time to take the profit on this one. It’s only 4.5% but it’s my largest single stock position. As noted previously, I have a few fundamental longs, a chart long (bull flag) on a Semi stock and Mr. Bounce Long, Google. It’s always fun when people perceived as bearish like me do their buying amidst bull pukage and it works out.
GOOGL is probably going to boink the lower wedge line, but I may think about profit taking soon. In this racket you never know. When I covered the shorts on EWP, SPY and sold FAZ, I thought I might be leaving something on the table from the short side. Well, no not really. It was a good time to dump the shorts. Now I have the same thing going on with Google here, in reverse. Got to love the markets.  Though a look at the weekly chart and a comparison to the QQQ makes me think twice… dohhh! Be decisive Gary! Well, it’s a free site and thus I am not paid for decisiveness here.
I sold it last week, having to ignore the greedy voice in my head (yeh, I still have that guy) and today Google is declining toward support. Looking at a 50% to 62% retrace of the initial rally off the April-May bullish pattern.
Using the big picture charting method shown in the previous post for a couple of indexes, we apply it to today’s star stock, GOOG and see that it is approaching a measurement of its own. If only it were as easy as calculate target, deploy capital and wait for payday.
Google, Microsoft and AMD joined Intel, which helped shave the SOX yesterday in an otherwise bullish market, in the earnings disappointment sweepstakes.
But then again, this market is all about its obsession with Fed policy isn’t it? If earnings season disappoints it keeps alive our biggest picture scenario, which is economic contraction being fought by inflationary monetary policy.
That is all I care about because sooner or later if confirmed, the correct investment themes (or lack thereof) will present themselves within this environment. One thing I will say is that inflation proponents – especially in the precious metals – did not need a blow out Google quarter and a robustly cheering US stock market. So that’s a √ in the fundamental column there.
Now, about crude oil… the next target is 110 and it needs to hold around there.