The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Medical Care Inflation
By Michael Ashton
I haven’t seen anything of note written about the probable effect of the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or “Obamacare”) on Medical Care CPI. This is probably because the calculation of Medical Care inflation in the CPI is confusing to many and because the direct effects of the ACA are still speculative at this point. But this is a potentially dangerous oversight since Medical Care is 7.2% of the CPI, and is after all the part that has recently been dragging Core CPI and Core PCE lower because of its unusual weakness.
#266 had this going on for the first few pages and then proceeded to refine a solid view of the financial markets.
Talking My Book
While awaiting important turning points in the markets it makes no sense to deny current realities. We get it; the Fed is inflating, manipulating and promoting greater moral hazards down the road. NFTRH has done its share of illustrating reasons why what is happening is unsustainable and most likely, very unhealthy.
So contrary to the previous post, TIP-TLT says that an ‘inflation expectations’ issue could still be brewing as TIP-TLT remains in a potentially bullish pattern.
So could that mean CCI will hold 500?
Beats me, but the entire global macro is something I want to let come to me, rather than me come to it in the form of taking risks before answers start coming in.
Of course, deflation has been rendered little more than the lever needed by chronic inflators as they rationalize the endless bailout through monetary tricks. So disinflation remains a macro economic manipulator’s best friend.
#261 was just mailed to subscribers. It took 10 less pages (than last week’s extended exercise) to make some clear points, especially about what NFTRH is and is not bullish on in the intermediate to long term. This is in contrast to some curious conclusions I have seen drawn on the internet about last week’s publicly available excerpt that discussed gold and the stock market.
NFTRH 261 – focused viewpoint and all – out now.
By Steve Saville
The following is excerpted from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 13th October 2013.
The Fed’s mode of operation has drastically changed over the past 12 years. Prior to 2002 the Fed would tighten monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of rising “price inflation” and loosen monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of falling “price inflation”, but beginning in 2002 the Fed became far more biased towards loose monetary policy. This bias is now so great that we are starting to wonder whether the Fed has become permanently loose.
The ISM has once again expanded. Policy is working, so please Dear Mr. Bernanke, begin to withdraw not only a token amount of Treasury bond asset buying in October; make a real statement for the ‘organic’ economy. Pull all T bond purchases and stop buying some MBS to boot. You’ll not only help the Fed’s balance sheet by doing so, you’ll also send a clear message to the people that you have confidence in the natural economy to build on its momentum.