We have been on the bounce scenario and speaking as a bear on the intermediate trend, I say thank you Mr. Kuroda. Everything, including clear as day analysis on the precious metals sector, is brought up to date in 34 highly graphical pages; and I feel that I, as a puny little market participant, am as well prepared as possible after once again doing the work.
I no longer tend to offer discounts or other incentives, as I see happening with some services as a bear phase engages. Frankly, this work is still under valued at today’s price. You read the more formal stuff at nftrh.com and the less formal stuff at biiwii.com. You know who I am by now.
The screen shot reprises the old Whack-a-Mole shtick and then NFTRH 380 gets down to serious business. This market is burping up data points and parameters left and right.
NFTRH 379 is out now
From 2012 to 2014 we had robo-market, grinding upward as hedge funds, diversified asset allocaters, stock pickers and yours truly under performed a simple ‘set it and forget it’ (by buying the S&P 500) mindset. Then came last year’s trendless topping situation when the majority of stocks declined but the S&P 500 hung around, keeping passive SPY holders still relatively comfy in their resolve.
Now comes 2016 (all 3 weeks of it!) and it has all changed. The market is in motion and I am seeing the spin on the ball. It doesn’t mean I am going to get every swing right, to the day, but it does mean that the market is moving and probabilities are readily manageable as information (technical, macro fundamental and sentiment/psych) comes in.
We are on the expected bounce but folks, this is not the post-September bounce, if you catch my drift. NFTRH 379 explains why in detail within what I think is an easy to read and easy to understand 26 page report.
Soros Reveals He is Short the S&P 500: Warns China Will Have a Hard Landing, Says “Fed Hike Was a Mistake” –Zero Hedge
You might count the number of times George Soros says “deflation” or “deflationary” in the interview linked below. I didn’t, but it’s a lot. I recall a ‘George Soros short the S&P 500’ headline from well back in the bull market. That did not work so well for the bear case.
This is media (in this case, Zero Hedge & Bloomberg) muckraking at the worst of what is a market sentiment “Tinder Box” (ref. NFTRH updates, projecting a short-term bottom and bounce potential based on Sentiment, among other things).
You can get the article and video by clicking the image.
Personally, I am glad to see this because I covered my Emerging Market short yesterday and am net long the US stock market. It felt uncomfortable right through yesterday, but if you’re going to play swings (long and short) in this market you’ve got to buy the media’s trend following… and sell it too. Right now things have gotten too bleak, including the likes of ole’ George here.
Pre-market looks like it wants to back up my stance. But in this market, I’m ready for anything. Yet this Soros noise helps, not hurts, my short-term view.
By Tom McClellan
[biiwii comment: we obviously agree, Tom: Gold Contrarian Indicators Very Bullish Now]
Gold traders seem to have lost all hope
December 03, 2015
Gold traders seem to be losing all hope and giving up. That is the message from the drop in total assets invested in GLD, the largest of the gold bullion ETFs.
Continue reading Gold Sentiment Washout
By Elliott Wave International
The Bear Market Meter is Running
Taxicab medallions and margin debt: A similar reversal in the making
As a native New Yorker, I can say with complete confidence: It’s true; there’s no place on earth like The Big Apple. It’s also true that, until recently, most New Yorkers would trip a nun if it meant hailing a Yellow cab first.
Fact is, the NYC Yellow cab used to be the hottest commodity in the five boroughs. When you needed a ride, spotting a cab with its service light on was like finding the last pair of Manolo Blahnik shoes in your size at a Manhattan Sample Sale.
But those days are over in NYC (and nearly every major U.S. metropolis). In the past year alone, street hail vehicles have suffered a series of crippling blows — including plummeting demand, fleet changes, sliding medallion values, and the “Taxi King” himself — Gene Freidman — filing for bankruptcy.
Continue reading Bear Market Meter is Running
A feature of the current sentiment backdrop is that people seem to be looking for market indicators (reasons) to be bullish as opposed to bearish. I mean, if you watch this site you know how keyed I am on the Semiconductors, as they were a post-2012 market leader. They led into the August correction and led right back out of it. Yey, everybody’s bullish on the Semi’s! Woo hoo!!
But why are we not hearing about another post-2012 leader, the Small Caps?
Here is the weekly view of IWM. Why is the rebuilt bull backbone not factoring this?
Let’s look at some pictures of what was formerly a totally bombed out market sentiment backdrop.
From Market Harmonics a look at RYDEX fund sentiment, fully recovered from the August freak show. Notice how volatility has expanded since Central Banks started becoming more aggressively intertwined with markets since 2011? Hmm?
From Doctor Ed by way of Investors Intelligence, a look at the II (newsletter writer sentiment) as of October 20, a couple days before Amazon, Alphabet and Mr. Softie launched the good times, good feelings and presumably the need for the newsletter boyz to adjust to being ‘right’ with the market. As we noted in #366 this week the bulls were recovering nicely but the bears got a little too eager too soon, holding the ratio down.
Continue reading Sentimental Pictures
Do not subscribe to NFTRH!
At least not yet, anyway… I am going to release it publicly for the first time in probably 5 years. Coming at what is a key juncture in most markets (talking the next 2 weeks), it seems like the right time to get this view of the current multi-market status out there before a wider audience.
NFTRH does not make predictions because they flunked me out of guru school and took away my crystal ball. But we always follow the analysis and probabilities and intuitively self-correct in real time if/as needed.
NFTRH 366 lays out the parameters of this key, potentially pivotal time in global markets. Generally, we have been right on the market’s turns ever since it resolved into the August drop and finally, things became ‘in motion’, which is the best environment to gauge and plan. Right now the motion is ‘up’, exactly as expected.
If you would like to have NFTRH 366 with no commitment and no strings attached, simply email me at gt<at>biiwii.com or use the ‘Contact’ link above and request so. If you find it is right for your needs I would welcome the opportunity to be among your market intelligence service providers going forward!
First headline I saw at Marketwatch this morning: Why a fanatical run higher may be shaping up for stocks
First headline I saw at CNBC this morning: Fear of ‘missing out’ will drive markets: Technician (click image for article and video)…
 The guy in the video is actually rational and echoes my thoughts on Biotech at the time of the liquidation. The lady is a little more crackish; another chartist heard from…
NFTRH 365 Market Sentiment Bottom Line:
“Folks, the over bearish backdrop that was a big concern for bears not even a month ago is being eliminated. The stock market bounce is doing its job. While SPX continues to target the 2020 to 2060 range (with an outlier possibility for 2100 +/-) the backdrop is now one of rising risk to the sentiment bounce rally.”
Here is but one of the indicators we used to support the above, Sentimentrader‘s Smart/Dumb money data graph. If you look closely, you’ll see that aggregated dumb money has aped the bottom and bounce in the S&P 500. Now we are poking up into the target range with the media telling newly greedy investors what they want to hear again. Well, they were doing that in August in September as well, but investors wanted to be fearful back then. Not so now. The bounce is doing its job.