Tag Archives: market sentiment

Tilting at Golden Windmills

By Biiwii

dq.windmillsThere is a writer we’ll call Don Quixote who is tilting at something that no longer really exists… the evil gold promoters that used to be taken seriously by innocents to the tune of near total destruction of their portfolios.

Don once went on about the gold cult and I even highlighted his post because I had been going about the gold cult as well.  The cult-like aspect of the gold “community” (← a dead giveaway) was real, and the group-think that the 2001-2011 bull market fostered was very strong and really damaging to those who did not question its tenets until it was too late.

Continue reading Tilting at Golden Windmills

Market Sentiment Sux

By Biiwii

Over at NFTRH we had a pretty extensive subscriber market update, going over targets, risk profiles, etc. for US stocks (and precious metals).  Here is one graph from the update and it is not pretty dear stock market bulls.

indicators
From Sentimentrader

Well, it is pretty I guess if you are a momo oriented Casino player.  But it is not pretty for risk vs. reward players.  While I understand that extreme sentiment goes hand in hand with bullish momo upside (i.e. mania), that does not change the fact that risk vs. reward sucks.

NFTRH 331 Out Now

This week NFTRH moves further from the lunatic fringe and into conventional market analysis with lots of talk about relative global stock valuations, using P/E ratios and currency movements as the talking points.

We also break down the latest Semiconductor Book-to-Bill and illustrate why the precious metals are still not ready.

Also, there is a sentiment issue cropping up in US stock markets, even as indexes made big bullish signals.  A wonderfully complex and interesting market backdrop folks.  Make sure you’re on top of it.

nftrh331

Also, for reference here is the larger version of a graphic included in #331.  Due to formatting it was not overly clear in the report.  Click image for full size.

global.pe
Data as of mid 2014

 

NFTRH 330 Out Now

330 does some opinion making on gold sector perceptions and then buttons down to some interesting market analysis covering the usual suspects; US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals, currencies, indicators and sentiment.  Good stuff.

Posting here and at NFTRH.com will be light in the first half of the week as it is school vacation and the kids are going to get some daddy time, whether they like it or not! :-)

330screen

Around the Web

 

NFTRH 328 Out Now

Another solid report this week.  I know that because it helped me out yet again in trying to understand all the components in play across markets; all the tops spinning around on the table.

Stock market sentiment is an issue as markets continue at an important technical decision point.  The precious metals have short-term technical parameters but more importantly, they have some pretty important long-term signals coming in.  Well, gold and even more so, gold miners.  Silver is not something I am personally excited about on the big picture.

The biggest picture view, which has been an uninterrupted global economic contraction is intact and getting stronger.  From that spring so many other items for extrapolation and strategy.

nftrh328

NFTRH 323 Out Now

NFTRH 323 ends the year in the same fashion as we began, calmly portraying what is in play within the market’s swings, laying out probabilities and honestly interpreting what the bigger trends are, without bias or emotion.  NFTRH 323, out now!

Check out a subscription to start the new year.  It promises to be rewarding.

nftrh323

Investors Hated Gold…

Guest Post by EWI

Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now?

Sentiment extremes often foretell major turns in financial markets

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

I came across this sentence in an article about gold:

Nobody expects gold prices to turn up soon…

Another observer put it this way:

There doesn’t seem to be anything on the horizon that will make gold prices go up.

It would be easy to think these comments published last week, when gold’s price reached a 4 1/2 year low ($1,131.85).

Continue reading Investors Hated Gold…

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Negative Feedback 2; Points Proven

A couple weeks ago I wrote a post about some negative feedback (comes with the territory, if I am doing my job well enough) because I wrote about the very real economic performance that has so far come out of what I consider unsustainable and doomed to fail policy (and would be bullish for the gold sector I might add).

So I get to have some people call me a perma bear on one side and certain dogma defenders on the opposite side, both coming down on the writer who, right or wrong, is trying to clear out the b/s and just write the truth.

Now with the Gold Bug Psychology article I unsurprisingly I got the incoming from that camp as well.  Even though I am twice the gold bug some of the dogma defenders are because I am not threatened by my position and am willing to state the truth as I see it.  Nobody that I know of has put in the effort I have over the last decade in trying to describe gold as a value instrument and an insurance policy… and NOT a PLAY or a GAME.

Anyway, I give much credit to the gold websites (GoldSeek, 321Gold and Gold Eagle), each of which published or linked the article after it was submitted.  I’ll reserve comment on some of the readers though, because some of the responses have been all too familiar and are not bullish for gold either.

From GoldSeek comments, the same forum where above noted feedback on my supposed pro-economy stance came from…

The writer has the psychology of short-termism and of throwing in the towel.

The commenter obviously has not read me.  Throwing in the towel, eh?  I am waiting for him to do that and have been for years now.  I am going to become so bullish on the price of gold and especially gold stocks (for all the reasons this post doesn’t have the time to go into… again) when people stop defending their positions and when the macro funda that actually matter come fully in line (they are not).  I am already bullish on the value of gold.

I sum up the author as follows…

Incorrect Groupthink: Gold is money for the individual, and under the control of the individual

Correct Groupthink: Central Banking with paper money, for the greater good, decided by ivory tower wise men

What I find strange, is that he then comes across as being a part of the gold community…

***************************
“Current Situation

So where are we at?”
***************************

All after accusing the gold community of “groupthink”, and following pied pipers as if they were heroes.

This commenter actually thinks I am part of the evil conspiracy, ha ha ha… me!  Biiwii, a site that has proclaimed the virtues of gold’s value proposition for a decade+ and shit all over the Federal Reserve’s policy for that same duration.  Sum me up any way you want my man.  Then after doing so why not go back and read some of the millions of words I’ve written over the last decade.

“The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology”

Wrong because of one word. Change “psychology” to manipulation. It is manipulation that is the trigger, and psychology is only the reaction. The ignorant and biased author needs to learn the difference in cause and effect.

And his groupthink comment is just plain stupid. So are all people who do something, who buy the same thing, engaged in groupthink? Are all antique car buffs suffering from groupthink because they all like old cars? How about all the women who buy jewelry? Are all skiers under groupthink because they enjoy gliding down snow covered mountains on two pieces of wood (or fiberglass or whatever)? Or perhaps more relevant, are all homeowners who buy insurance even though their house has never burned down suffering from groupthink?

Terrible article, really written like a jackass.

Thank you for making my case.  When you stop calling names and when position defenders in general at least stop to consider that someone who is on your side (in your perceived war) is actually trying to help, we’ll be ready to move forward.

Sincerely,

Jackass.

 

Hulbert HGNSI and Gold

First off, I want to say that the plan explained by Steve Hochberg in the video associated with the previous post (free sign up required) meshes well with how I see gold currently.  The 1000 +/- level is very doable, folks.  Not a given, but quite doable.  That would close out investors’ fear from 2008 by having made a completed cycle on the rebound in greed.

In the short-term, gold was probably ready to bounce even before the war stuff hit the news yesterday.  Sentiment had become just deplorable, with gold bulls puking left and right.  The geopolitical thing is a negative, as it always is but the Hulbert HGNSI is quite a positive, as the gold timer community (ha ha ha…) plummets well into net short territory.

hgnsi

So, geopolitical aside (and I always take that seriously as a negative for gold because it gets the worst of the gold “community” back to pumping) gold can see some decent rally activity off of sentiment and the improved Commitments of Traders structure.  But I think more downside may follow over the next few months.  Then?  Cyclical bull.

Meanwhile, I am using gold as a macro tool; probably the best macro tool I have when comparing it to other assets that are positively correlated to economies.  Gold is just a tool around here after all; a tool for market evaluation and a tool for monetary value.  It’s not an idol.  When the ones who obsess about gold with wildly glaring eyes are back on the pump, take caution.

Separately, also at MarketWatch we see that the word is getting out that these ‘golden’ and ‘death’ crosses that inexperienced TA’s often get hysterical about are indeed opposite to the hype.  The supposedly bullish golden ones are more bearish than the death ones.  Too funny, and sadly all too true.

What I like about market management is that there is no shortage of bullshit out there to decode and debunk, but casual observers tend to take it seriously.