Below are a couple clips from NFTRH 9, dated November 22, 2008. I only show this because contrary to my current tone, I am not a perma bear. Really, truly. I am just a perhaps overly intense big picture risk vs. reward manager. ← And I’ll readily admit that can be worked on, fine tuned or whatever.
But in November of 2008 NFTRH had this to say about the Dow, given that everyone was convinced of deflation, depression and the end of the world as we knew it…
Later in the ‘Wrap Up’ segment this appeared (click to enlarge):
Nothing has really changed in the 5+ years since, other than the thing has been flipped over on its head. No one can control timing, mass emotion or any other market dynamics. If/as the market breaks upward I am going to have some fun. But for good measure it will pay to keep the idea of equals, opposites and things in the mirror in mind.
Risk vs. Reward S.U.C.K.S.
Hey, have a good and bullish weekend!
 Will ya look at the helium escaping from that thing?
Guest Post by Michael Ashton
Investors have learned the same wrong lessons over the last couple of years that they learned in the run-up to 2000, evidently. I remember that in the latter part of 1999, every mild equity market setback was met immediately with buying – the thought was that you had to jump quickly on the train before it left the station again. There was no thought about whether the bounce was real, or whether it “made sense”; for quite a number of them in a row, the bounce was absolutely real and the train really did leave the station.
Folks, alas I am all written out. I can write no more today other than that this here market report, #277 is a damn fine piece of work. Key word ‘work’.
Guest Post by Elliott Wave International
Here’s one good reason why: a historic market sentiment extreme
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are struggling to bounce. Yet the bullish convictions remain high. Says a February 5 Investor’s Business Daily headline:
“Why Mutual Fund Investors Need Not Panic After January Sell-Off”
I feel that 2014 is thus far giving hints that my patience, tested so aggressively in 2013 with respect to the big picture macro plan, will be rewarded this year. I find the idea that we are closing a ‘fear gap’ from 2008/2009 to be pretty compelling.
From NFTRH 271:
“The aggregated data from Sentimentrader is more extreme than I have ever seen it since I began my subscription to that service a few years ago. Dumb Money is lovin’ it some stocks.”
Since then the dumb money got even more frothy and then… today’s little bump in the road. Dumb money literally chased the market right to the last day of the year.
Here’s the updated graphic from Sentimentrader.com:
I’ll probably release the opening segment publicly, but the screenshot gives you an idea of where it is going. NFTRH 267, a damn good and rational market letter… is out now.