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NFTRH In a Nutshell…

aliceI had an in-depth back and forth with an NFTRH subscriber on Friday discussing aspects of the macro backdrop centered around a curious statement made by a market writer who I consider to be an influence of mine.  We’ll leave this to the imagination since it is not relevant here.

What is relevant is that within the correspondence the subscriber, my client, nailed exactly what I view the mission of NFTRH to be:

“You aren’t married to any particular outcome, which of course doesn’t offer the comfort of predictions like ‘this should happen in the next few weeks’ – but recognizes that markets are markets….they’re going to do what they do, and they’re never wrong.”

I think the word “comfort” is the operative one here.  With respect to precious metals I have not been comfortable for some time now.  1.5+ years since the precious metals topped out, interrupted by the strong precious metals rally late last summer until discomfort had to be brought front and center again when HUI lost the ‘normal’ pullback level of 460.

But the thing is that I am not selling comfort and I am not selling an ability to make predictions.  I cannot provide either of those things.  What I can provide is risk vs. reward scenarios, probabilities, preferred views and parameters to those views.  Think about all the really smart people on either side of any given market stance.  50% of them are wrong.

The only rational way to mange markets is to let the markets be the markets and to subordinate yourself to that.  Lay in wait then be ready when opportunity comes.

So thank you for this ‘DC’.  I have had a few subscribers drop off lately because I am not yet able to give clear directions and in fact continue along the lines of ‘if this, then that’ within the context of technicals, sentiment and macro setups.

It’s a weirdo in the world of newsletters.  But NFTRH is in this for the long haul, not to make heroic short-term predictions that make people feel good about their preconceived notions, thereby setting them up to be heavily committed to a view that could turn out wrong.  In the market you manage risk first and then, when the time is right you seize the hell out of opportunity.

NFTRH 221 Out Now

27 pages hammering out a viable plan for 2013.


NFTRH 213 Out Now

213 deals with the fact that our “lean” toward a bullish resolution to the October correction (which we anticipated) took a hit last week.  But these are the markets and what we do is deal with what is in play from this very moment forward.

Risk was managed to an extreme and while the picture is somewhat cloudy for the balance of 2012 (markets are at extremely important support parameters now; the kind that decide bull continuation or bear market), something unexpected (given the pervasiveness of the deflationary backdrop) could be in play with the projected ending of Op/Twist.  It’s in the money supply folks.  Adjusted MS has been flat lined for a long while now.  Will it remain that way, post-Twist?

Tune out the deflation touts now and realize that risk management is always in style; but there is a path in play that could see an unexpected inflationary scenario kick up as we move into 2013.

nftrh 213

Samples Available


Quick note…

The most recent sample edition of NFTRH (#208, 10/14/12) and Interim Update (11/15/12) are available on the Samples page.  Check ’em out.