Tag Archives: precious metals

NFTRH 357 Out Now

By Biiwii

#357 is about road maps for the US stock market.  There is one road map for the immediate-term, one for the next 1-2 months and then another, which will be the decider between a new, manic and bullish stock blow off phase or a brand spanking new little baby bear.

Regardless of what the big answer is in the fall, the next 1-2 months is going to be very trade-able, in both directions.  Parameters are clear.

As for the precious metals, they are a work in progress.  For now, the US stock market is a better trading vehicle, technically.  I’d advise people to tune out anyone who would try to use last week’s events to scare people into gold.  Gold will get where it is going in its due time, and it does not need pompoms and cheering squads to help it.

nftrh 357

Bond Safety?

By Biiwii

[edit]  Upon re-reading, it’s another of those posts I sometimes receive critiques about.  Few conclusions and no clear direction.  Maybe that is just the point though.

@ Fidelity…

Equity outflows at 15-week high as investors seek bond safety

And there they go, conventional lemmings jumping from the frying pan, into the fire, soon to realize the fire is way too hot, and heading for that cliff over there.

(B)ut (i)t i(s) (w)hat (i)t (i)s and (N)otes (F)rom (T)he (R)abbit (H)ole are so named because we are all about anti-convention, as global markets have not been comfortably conventional since the late 1990’s, I think.  This most recent cycle has existed to put all of us malcontents, cranks and alarmists back in a box under the bed, if not into the dustbin of history.

Well today, conventional sheep are flocking to conventional positions.  “Bond safety” is what they run to when they are afraid of stocks.  Of course, with gold now showing strength, the promoters over there are retooling their former “China/India demand” and “employment growth will spur inflation, which will drive people to gold” pitches to something more appropriate for the times, when global economic contraction comes to the fore and deflation is front page news.

Imagine that, investors flocking to bonds while DEFLATION! is all up in the headlines.  Reminds me of Q4 2008, just before the next INFLATION.

This market is now officially fun again after the post-October drudgery that last month forced me to admit that my trading sucks and that I needed to take a time out and sit on my hands (as the market’s swings became too frequent and too contracted).

Do you see?  Investors are seeking safety in bonds.  Media are managing a global stock crash.  Bull trend followers’ heads are spinning (‘Am I still a brave, resolute, trend following stock bull?  Should I keep posting as such or is my inner fear barometer stronger than my resolve?’) and oh yes, the precious metals are bouncing while commodities continue to tank.

There are only a few entities who have called this environment.  One is an influence of mine, Bob Hoye (decisively, but on what some might find an inconveniently long time frame).  Another is NFTRH (less decisively, but on a very tight time frame).  This is a market that is going to put all the carnival barkers (including gold touts) in their rightful places because now changes are happening and it will not be so simple as ‘stocks are tanking, buy bonds!’ and obviously, the whole ‘economy brings inflation, buy gold!’ promo.

Tops are spinning on the table and it all makes perfect sense.  And I am not even a stock market bear.  I just do not buy or hold tops.  I look forward to a real bull market in the gold sector, but there is yet work to do folks.  The US market’s big trend is still up and gold’s is still down.  Not saying change is not in the offing, just saying trends have not yet changed.

With respect to gold, this summer’s event is so much more in line with fundamentals that matter than last summer’s Ukraine→Russia→Ebola pitch that was nothing more than promotion.  But there remain some rocks beneath the surface.

As to the article linked above, this certainly does put Martin Armstrong front and center, with his ‘final flight to the safety of the government bond bubble’ analysis…

LONDON (Reuters) – Equity outflows hit a 15-week high of $8.3 billion in the past week, with fears of a China-driven global economic crisis pushing investors towards safe-haven money-market funds and Treasuries, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday.

I have not really known what to make of Marty and his computer, but this is 100% in line with his forecast.

I just love a market where things are in motion.  Robo market was a dead thing, momentum waning and hopes fading.  Now resolution is to the downside.  From this point, it is now time to throw out the easy analysis and be prepared for the counter-cyclical environment we have expected upon completion of the post-2008 economic recovery (and all that paper and all those digits behind it).

Now you do not get points for just showing up and following the trend.  Now you find out if that which you hold true actually is.

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Bull Markets Die Epicurean

bob hoye

NFTRH 355 Out Now

By Biiwii

NFTRH 355 takes the balls in the air, tops spinning on the table and the up and down market whipsaw and attempts to distill it all into a sensible narrative for this very moment and what is out ahead.

In that it provided me with everything I need with respect to my parameters and risk tolerance for the short and long-terms, it did its job very well.  I think others will find that to be the case too.

nftrh355

NFTRH 351 Out Now

By Biiwii

I thought it would be significantly abbreviated to provide myself and subscribers some relaxation this fine summer weekend.  I thought wrong.  It was 27 pages (lots of graphics), all of which were required to make some important points, two of which were…

  1.  A very interesting setup is happening in the Semiconductors
  2. A very interesting setup is happening in the gold sector

One is short-term and of relevance to current trends and the other is going to have relevance on the longer-term after perhaps, some very climactic activity.

Lot’s more too!

nftrh351

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Credit Spreads: Like 1998 and 2008

pivotalevents

NFTRH 348 Out Now

By Biiwii

A good report, as usual.  That may sound smug but #348 is another report helped me personally because as usual I don’t go into these things so much trying to put what I think down on virtual paper.  I go into them seeking answers or at least, clarity.  Check.

nftrh348

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Bond Bear Threatens Central Bank Reserves

pivotal.events

Anti-USD & Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ Trades Updated

By Biiwii

Hey, I know I always seem to need to give these things nicknames (Armageddon ’08, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.).  Maybe that is a reflection of how non-seriously I take modern finance on a fundamental level.  What we have here are policy and media driven hysterias, both to the positive side and the negative, swaying an emotional collection of players to and fro.  It is more of a game than a science or well heeled, buttoned down profession.

So currently, on an interim basis we are working the ‘Anti-USD inflation trade’ (a bounce in inflation expectations and associated ‘hard’ assets) and the Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ trade, with its template being the US QE that has worked to hyper boost (stock) asset prices.

It appears that the mealy mouthed Fed, still refusing to bail out any savers that are left (both of them), has kicked another leg out from under the US dollar, which had for some reason been discounting a Fed that would begin raising the Funds Rate by now like a normal entity in a normal post-crash bailout environment would have done upon achievement of its objectives.

‘But no, we just need to tweak a few more positive data points out of it or wait until we see the white’s of inflation’s eyes’ implies the Fed.  Whatever, the dollar is down this morning and the anti-USD inflation trade should get a bounce in its step, in line with one of our main themes.  If the May low is violated, Uncle Buck could take a pretty deep correction.

Continue reading Anti-USD & Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ Trades Updated

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Shanghai Needs Another Upside Exhaustion Reading
pe
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Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

“The Trading Floor Cynic”

pivotal.events
Click for full PDF