I had family commitments over the weekend but an abbreviated NFTRH 299 (which I might add, still packed more useful analysis than much of what is out there puts out on a good day) closed its Precious Metals segment with this, written after Friday’s big head fake to the upside…
“The bottom line on the precious metals segment (which went on longer than intended) is that the elements are in place for near-term corrective activity but on an intermediate view, considering the breakout in silver, the picture is bullish.
We should not fall into the ‘bullish, no bearish, no bullish…’ trap of chasing daily activity around. We have been raising the prospect of coming corrective activity and Friday’s recovery does not change that.
If the sector rises and starts [to] break important resistance levels in a ‘CoT be damned’, upside extravaganza we will note it and watch for those resistance levels to be turned to support. Since that would likely be a bull market signal, there would be plenty of time to position like ‘Old Turkey’ (the ‘be right and sit tight’ buy and holder from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) for big gains over the ensuing months. For now however, caution remains advised on the near-term.”
I feel that NFTRH has done right by its subscribers; not in being right all the time* but in saying what I feel has to be said all the time. At $10 a month less than other TA services I have observed – offering little or no macro fundamental or broad market research – I am secure in the idea that slow, steady and b/s-free is going to win this race. Lotta clowns out there.
* Though the rally started at our ‘HUI 205′ parameter, which we had been watching for weeks leading to the late May low. You know, markets go both ways after all. So both ways need to be managed in order to be properly positioned for bull or bear.
 From an NFTRH subscriber: “I sense people possibly annoyed with you this morning and now a mere few hours later like oh that guy is level headed.” FWIW, I too wondered how many might be getting annoyed this morning. But I have got to say what I think. Sometimes it’ll prove wrong and other times, not.
I am going to wait until tomorrow and then check a certain website to see what the latest is in the JNUG vs. JDST, NUGT vs. DUST, USLV vs. DSLV precious metals sweepstakes. No, I’ll not name the site because it is no longer my place to police the entire internet (MSM excepted of course ). There are others doing just fine in that capacity.
But speaking in general terms, I find the smart guys with the ‘bullish-no-bear-no-bullish… dohhhh, blame it on the charts!’ routine to be really tiresome. It’s all part of the grand pronouncement neurosis that too many websites and services have in seeking would-be guruhood. Climbing all over each other to make THE call.
Well here’s a call… the gold sector was going to go up until it stopped going up. Here is another call… it stopped going up right in a resistance zone that was readily identifiable since HUI made a bottom at the readily identifiable (and highly strategic) level of 205. Why make things more complicated than that? Why get involved in crack use? Why not just have balance and enjoy your summer?
Jobless Claims Drop as US Consumers Gain Confidence
Economic deceleration is sure not on the front burner. Yet the US continues to try to inflate, as does a good portion of the developed world. Questions include… will we get rising inflation concerns and will this inflation and precious metals bounce foretell economic drudgery (or worse) to come? In 2000 when the great stock bull blew out and the gold bull began, things were about as good as they get for the economy.
Silver is continuing its breakout on the weekly chart (ref. the comparison to the CCI index in 2013). Silver vs. gold is continuing upward (a good sector leadership indication) but is getting very over bought now (traders be aware). Gold is breaking through its 50 and 200 day moving averages and approaching the key ’round number’ resistance around 1300 that we have been noting.
Silver continues to lead gold and that is generally a positive. The ratio is sneaking above the MA 50’s, RSI is over 50 and AROON just went green.
The first in what I think will be a line of reports that focuses in on themes for deep summer, as da boyz relax, cashed out and sipping specialty cocktails at sunset in da Hamptins. NFTRH 293 is 35 pages of pure focus on US and global stocks, precious metals and the all important Treasury bonds / interest rate markets.
As has been the case often lately, the precious metals are positive in pre-US open. These have tended to be fleeting positive vibes, but we should keep the technical parameters in view nonetheless because a) you don’t want to buy (or at least hold) a sucker bounce and b) just maybe the forces of right and good will one day break out of this funk. So we should stay tuned up on what constitutes bull and bear in the precious metals.
Guest Post by Ino.com
Guest Analysis by Bob Hoye