Tag Archives: precious metals

NFTRH 351 Out Now

By Biiwii

I thought it would be significantly abbreviated to provide myself and subscribers some relaxation this fine summer weekend.  I thought wrong.  It was 27 pages (lots of graphics), all of which were required to make some important points, two of which were…

  1.  A very interesting setup is happening in the Semiconductors
  2. A very interesting setup is happening in the gold sector

One is short-term and of relevance to current trends and the other is going to have relevance on the longer-term after perhaps, some very climactic activity.

Lot’s more too!

nftrh351

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Credit Spreads: Like 1998 and 2008

pivotalevents

NFTRH 348 Out Now

By Biiwii

A good report, as usual.  That may sound smug but #348 is another report helped me personally because as usual I don’t go into these things so much trying to put what I think down on virtual paper.  I go into them seeking answers or at least, clarity.  Check.

nftrh348

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Bond Bear Threatens Central Bank Reserves

pivotal.events

Anti-USD & Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ Trades Updated

By Biiwii

Hey, I know I always seem to need to give these things nicknames (Armageddon ’08, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.).  Maybe that is a reflection of how non-seriously I take modern finance on a fundamental level.  What we have here are policy and media driven hysterias, both to the positive side and the negative, swaying an emotional collection of players to and fro.  It is more of a game than a science or well heeled, buttoned down profession.

So currently, on an interim basis we are working the ‘Anti-USD inflation trade’ (a bounce in inflation expectations and associated ‘hard’ assets) and the Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ trade, with its template being the US QE that has worked to hyper boost (stock) asset prices.

It appears that the mealy mouthed Fed, still refusing to bail out any savers that are left (both of them), has kicked another leg out from under the US dollar, which had for some reason been discounting a Fed that would begin raising the Funds Rate by now like a normal entity in a normal post-crash bailout environment would have done upon achievement of its objectives.

‘But no, we just need to tweak a few more positive data points out of it or wait until we see the white’s of inflation’s eyes’ implies the Fed.  Whatever, the dollar is down this morning and the anti-USD inflation trade should get a bounce in its step, in line with one of our main themes.  If the May low is violated, Uncle Buck could take a pretty deep correction.

Continue reading Anti-USD & Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ Trades Updated

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Shanghai Needs Another Upside Exhaustion Reading
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Click for full PDF report

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

“The Trading Floor Cynic”

pivotal.events
Click for full PDF

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

“Skewed Growth Curves: Unstable”

pivotalevents

NFTRH 333 Out Now

Just moving along in ‘swing’ mode, doing what the markets tell us to do and not trying to force anything.  Simple, but it works.

nftrh333

NFTRH 332 Out Now

By Biiwii

332 is a good one. They all have been lately in my opinion. I know that because each week doing the work in these reports (and in-week updates) helps orient me and keep me cross-referenced and double checked in my own assumptions.

nftrh332Frankly, I feel as though I am seeing the markets well this year. It’s sort of like conducting an orchestra and having all pieces playing to perfection. While patience is a key word, markets are moving along and making wonderful sense. To boot, even individual stock charts are working well and more often than not doing what I want them to do. Go figure.

The market manager side of me (as opposed to the idealist human side) is in control and pleased with how things are going. This manager does not care what the market does as long as we are on the right side of it. The idealist may need to find a hobby for a while. :-)

NFTRH 332 carries the narrative up to today. It’s out now and you should check it out with an affordable subscription. I realize that everything on the internet is supposed to be free, but you know you ultimately get what you don’t pay for. We’re talking less than 4 Fidelity trade commissions a month for a weekly report and multiple updates.

One winning trade or avoided loss can pay for 5 or 10 yearly subscriptions (depending on trade size of course). When it comes time to manage the next macro turn? That could be a life changer. That’s what 2008 was after all. NFTRH will be there.

Long winded promo, every word of which I believe in and stand behind, ends now.

NFTRH 331 Out Now

This week NFTRH moves further from the lunatic fringe and into conventional market analysis with lots of talk about relative global stock valuations, using P/E ratios and currency movements as the talking points.

We also break down the latest Semiconductor Book-to-Bill and illustrate why the precious metals are still not ready.

Also, there is a sentiment issue cropping up in US stock markets, even as indexes made big bullish signals.  A wonderfully complex and interesting market backdrop folks.  Make sure you’re on top of it.

nftrh331

Also, for reference here is the larger version of a graphic included in #331.  Due to formatting it was not overly clear in the report.  Click image for full size.

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Data as of mid 2014