Tag Archives: precious metals

NFTRH 380 Out Now

By Biiwii

nftrh 380We have been on the bounce scenario and speaking as a bear on the intermediate trend, I say thank you Mr. Kuroda.  Everything, including clear as day analysis on the precious metals sector, is brought up to date in 34 highly graphical pages; and I feel that I, as a puny little market participant, am as well prepared as possible after once again doing the work.

I no longer tend to offer discounts or other incentives, as I see happening with some services as a bear phase engages.  Frankly, this work is still under valued at today’s price.  You read the more formal stuff at nftrh.com and the less formal stuff at biiwii.com.  You know who I am by now.

The screen shot reprises the old Whack-a-Mole shtick and then NFTRH 380 gets down to serious business.  This market is burping up data points and parameters left and right.

 

NFTRH 379 Out Now

By Biiwii

NFTRH 379 is out now

nftrh 379From 2012 to 2014 we had robo-market, grinding upward as hedge funds, diversified asset allocaters, stock pickers and yours truly under performed a simple ‘set it and forget it’ (by buying the S&P 500) mindset.  Then came last year’s trendless topping situation when the majority of stocks declined but the S&P 500 hung around, keeping passive SPY holders still relatively comfy in their resolve.

Now comes 2016 (all 3 weeks of it!) and it has all changed.  The market is in motion and I am seeing the spin on the ball.  It doesn’t mean I am going to get every swing right, to the day, but it does mean that the market is moving and probabilities are readily manageable as information (technical, macro fundamental and sentiment/psych) comes in.

We are on the expected bounce but folks, this is not the post-September bounce, if you catch my drift.  NFTRH 379 explains why in detail within what I think is an easy to read and easy to understand 26 page report.

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

In 2014 our target for crude was 27

pivotal events by bob hoye

NFTRH 366 Out Now and Available for Free

By Biiwii

nftrh 366Do not subscribe to NFTRH!

At least not yet, anyway… I am going to release it publicly for the first time in probably 5 years.  Coming at what is a key juncture in most markets (talking the next 2 weeks), it seems like the right time to get this view of the current multi-market status out there before a wider audience.

NFTRH does not make predictions because they flunked me out of guru school and took away my crystal ball.  But we always follow the analysis and probabilities and intuitively self-correct in real time if/as needed.

NFTRH 366 lays out the parameters of this key, potentially pivotal time in global markets.  Generally, we have been right on the market’s turns ever since it resolved into the August drop and finally, things became ‘in motion’, which is the best environment to gauge and plan.  Right now the motion is ‘up’, exactly as expected.

If you would like to have NFTRH 366 with no commitment and no strings attached, simply email me at gt<at>biiwii.com or use the ‘Contact’ link above and request so.  If you find it is right for your needs I would welcome the opportunity to be among your market intelligence service providers going forward!

NFTRH 365 Out Now

By Biiwii

A solid 36 page report.  The market bounce matures as it enters our target zone and sentiment is the indicator.  Precious Metals continue to improve on the macro, but carry rising risk on the short-term.  Question: Is HUI going to get to the 150’s before or after short-term risk is realized?  Answer: I don’t know, but we are ready either way.  Much more too.  NFTRH 365 Out now.

nftrh 365

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

The Fed is Behind the Action

bob hoye, pivotal events

NFTRH 362 Out Now

By Biiwii

nftrh 362As noted in the subscriber email that accompanied NFTRH 362:

“NFTRH 362 trims back down to 22 pages, but makes a lot of points in those pages. In particular, despite everything going according to the best laid plans we should realize that the bear case is not yet sealed. The opening segment talks a lot about policy involvement in markets and the stock market segment clearly shows how 2011 had a similar situation to today’s bearish situation… enter Operation Twist and a changed landscape for years thereafter. All I am saying is, let’s have open minds.”

We also update global stock markets and come to a conclusion on a relatively good shorting opportunity, and review the progress of a new and constructive signal in the gold sector (which remains in TA hell, by the way) and really try to make clear why the Gold-Silver ratio is so important to not only this sector, but global markets and even policy maker actions.

A good report that is right on for the times.  NFTRH 362 out now.

NFTRH 361 Out Now

By Biiwii

From the email to subscribers that accompanied NFTRH 361:

“The Indicators segment beats us all to a pulp talking about yield spreads, but I find more and more that this work should not be easy or readily packaged into sound bites. It just doesn’t work that way unless you are promoting an orthodoxy or an agenda.”

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.  NFTRH 361 out now…

nftrh 361

Robert Prechter and Me

By Biiwii

The above title was assigned to this post while writing it and realizing I was blabbing a lot about myself and my own methods.

I finally had the time to do more than skim Robert Prechter’s most recent EW Theorist.  I can see why they released it for free, because in it he ran a laundry list of calls that have gone well and one – the US stock market – that had not yet done so (and indeed has been the market that has defined him as a frustrated perma-bear to many) as of its publish date.  Well, shortly thereafter that holdout market went well to join the rest of the world.

Here is the link again, if you have not read it:  Most recent Elliott Wave Theorist

I should note that I do not currently subscribe, although I have at times in the past.  I need to be very clear in my own thinking and trust my own methods, which have been working well, without too much of anyone else’s cross-talk.  But I always find Prechter an interesting read when I do have access.  He’s beyond interesting, really.  He’s pretty much one of a kind.

Some of my observations…

  • Prechter mentions exactly what I have harped on repeatedly; how economists (and financial services entities) tend to extrapolate things in linear fashion.  He notes “we extrapolate them in fractal fashion”.  I on the other hand, extrapolate them with a combination of technical, sentiment/psych and inter-market indicators.  Ref. for instance the PALL-Gold ratio, which made a bearish signal months ago.  I knew not why, but we certainly respected it and were prepared for the market damage that followed it.
  • As noted in the previous post, the guy was right on with Crude Oil, over the long-term.  EWI were also right on with Asia and Emerging Markets, while admitting that they have fumbled the US stock market, which “has just floated around as if in a dream”.  Well, it woke up last month and I for one could not be happier because finally it is in motion.  I care more about motion than direction.
  • Gold bugs used to laugh at Prechter routinely.  Indeed, I had to use my will to tune him out as his calls for gold’s top rose from 375 to 425 to an eventual 1900, when he was finally right.  US stock bugs laugh at prechter the same way now.  Anyway, he goes into detail on gold, silver and the miners, calling for a significant counter trend rally in the bombed out sector as well as in crude oil.  But these things are within larger bear markets.
  • Finally, he makes some good sense of Dow Theory, an art that I don’t pay much attention to, but appears valid and he shows why.

Anyway, the Theorist is well worth your 10 minutes of time if you’d like to pick it up, free of charge.  Also covered are China, real estate, etc.  It’s a take on markets as only Prechter can take it.

dow theory