Despite the opening segment’s title and the UK Subs classic below, it’s not a tin foil hat piece. Really.
As the screenshot implies, the ‘taper to carry’ scenario is alive and well for another week. NFTRH 242 breaks little new ground, but does a good job (IMO) of keeping track of a lot of strategic things that are in motion all at once; from the inflation scenario to stock markets to commodities, precious metals, currencies and of course T bond yields.
Aside from various indicators that seem to be working better now, a new and potentially critical ripple entered the analysis this week as I was analyzing long-term T bond yields. Hint: Remember the inflationary Greenspan era? Remember the ‘no-lose’ carry trade for the banks?
I am sure this theme will start getting fleshed out here on the blog going forward. But for now, it is making its appearance in NFTRH along with some conclusions. It is never too soon to start looking around the next bend.
That something was a big smash in gold and especially silver over night and then a head spinning reversal. Exactly the kind of thing we look for to be buyers.
Silver actually got near my target zone, which is 17-20. But there is a bump of long-term support elsewhere (noted this morning in an NFTRH update) that could hold for a rally or better. When items like gold and silver have been this badly decimated and people have come to hate a concept like honest money this vehemently (while being compelled to worship inflationary policy making), you need to give merit to the idea that the next rally could be the rally.
Silver’s CoT data still shows some open interest by whatever gamers or evil interests there may be in the paper and digital markets, but its structure is very bullish. Yet until this morning, everybody hated silver.
Now, lack of follow-through and another flop would reset and extend the agony that honest money advocates have endured, but there seemed to be enough going on today in gold, silver and the associated stock indexes to stand up and take notice.
May/June is after all, the time frame we have been expecting for some pretty important changes in the macro markets. Did something happen today? We’ll find out very shortly.
A solid 20 pages that continues to follow the bull trend in stocks and the bear trend in precious metals and commodities. Policy makers are zinged as usual for what I believe is ultimately destructive policy, but a positive is noted as well. Fancy that.
The market marches forward and only the rational are going to succeed.