Guest Post by Bob Hoye
Guest Post by Bob Hoye
Guest Post by Bob Hoye
On a weekend where I took my daughter to Boston for two nights of voice coaching/recording, needed to watch the Patriots game (on DVR) and a late Rangers game, on a taxing California road trip (it may have been taxing for them too ), I somehow managed to get 35 quality pages done with NFTRH’s 325th edition.
I am happy with the report for the reason I often am when I think I’ve done a good job; I feel I am personally a better investor today than I was on Friday afternoon.
NFTRH 323 ends the year in the same fashion as we began, calmly portraying what is in play within the market’s swings, laying out probabilities and honestly interpreting what the bigger trends are, without bias or emotion. NFTRH 323, out now!
Check out a subscription to start the new year. It promises to be rewarding.
A good report that departs from some of the nuts and bolts (so much so that I forgot to include the usual currency segment, which we have frankly had nailed since the commodity currencies broke down a year ago and the great USD rally was just a twinkle in Uncle Buck’s eye ), managing what was an expected early December drop in markets with an eye out toward Tax Loss, Santa and January Effect seasonals.
But to me the most important aspects of #321 are its clear views about why nothing about this macro environment is healthy, how the market is vulnerable and how 6 years later we are simply closing out a massively significant market event, with the majority at the opposite end of the emotional spectrum to Q4, 2008.
On that note, at the prodding of a subscriber, I’ve excerpted a segment from NFTRH 7 (Nov. 8, 2008) on Deflation and Inflation. To me it shows how little things have changed in the ensuing 6 years. Amazing, really. I’ll probably post it here later, to go with Friday’s post about a potential ‘inflation trade’ bounce, possibly in early 2015.
Guest Analysis by Bob Hoye
A technical snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced from critical support (equiv. of gold 1180). MACD triggered up is positive.
I had family commitments over the weekend but an abbreviated NFTRH 299 (which I might add, still packed more useful analysis than much of what is out there puts out on a good day) closed its Precious Metals segment with this, written after Friday’s big head fake to the upside…
“The bottom line on the precious metals segment (which went on longer than intended) is that the elements are in place for near-term corrective activity but on an intermediate view, considering the breakout in silver, the picture is bullish.
We should not fall into the ‘bullish, no bearish, no bullish…’ trap of chasing daily activity around. We have been raising the prospect of coming corrective activity and Friday’s recovery does not change that.
If the sector rises and starts [to] break important resistance levels in a ‘CoT be damned’, upside extravaganza we will note it and watch for those resistance levels to be turned to support. Since that would likely be a bull market signal, there would be plenty of time to position like ‘Old Turkey’ (the ‘be right and sit tight’ buy and holder from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) for big gains over the ensuing months. For now however, caution remains advised on the near-term.”
I feel that NFTRH has done right by its subscribers; not in being right all the time* but in saying what I feel has to be said all the time. At $10 a month less than other TA services I have observed – offering little or no macro fundamental or broad market research – I am secure in the idea that slow, steady and b/s-free is going to win this race. Lotta clowns out there.
* Though the rally started at our ‘HUI 205′ parameter, which we had been watching for weeks leading to the late May low. You know, markets go both ways after all. So both ways need to be managed in order to be properly positioned for bull or bear.
 From an NFTRH subscriber: “I sense people possibly annoyed with you this morning and now a mere few hours later like oh that guy is level headed.” FWIW, I too wondered how many might be getting annoyed this morning. But I have got to say what I think. Sometimes it’ll prove wrong and other times, not.
I am going to wait until tomorrow and then check a certain website to see what the latest is in the JNUG vs. JDST, NUGT vs. DUST, USLV vs. DSLV precious metals sweepstakes. No, I’ll not name the site because it is no longer my place to police the entire internet (MSM excepted of course ). There are others doing just fine in that capacity.
But speaking in general terms, I find the smart guys with the ‘bullish-no-bear-no-bullish… dohhhh, blame it on the charts!’ routine to be really tiresome. It’s all part of the grand pronouncement neurosis that too many websites and services have in seeking would-be guruhood. Climbing all over each other to make THE call.
Well here’s a call… the gold sector was going to go up until it stopped going up. Here is another call… it stopped going up right in a resistance zone that was readily identifiable since HUI made a bottom at the readily identifiable (and highly strategic) level of 205. Why make things more complicated than that? Why get involved in crack use? Why not just have balance and enjoy your summer?