Tag Archives: seasonality

Seasonal; Santa & Beyond

santa[edit] On a related topic, NFTRH has a market sentiment update this morning as well.

As November came to a close, the market rebound out of the October correction had not only reset over bearish sentiment, but had put it wildly bullish and very unhealthy.  Yet the Santa seasonal was oncoming and something had to give.  Santa’s rally was not going to generate from such unhealthy over bullish conditions.

In NFTRH we reviewed this seasonal pattern (from Sentimentrader.com) and anticipated some corrective activity in the first half of December (NFTRH+ offered a short on SPY, which went right to the downside target).  But this would just be a clearing of the decks for the portly man in red.  Here is the seasonal for December…


Looking ahead, here is the 30 year average seasonal for January…


You cannot take historical data as a be all and end all because it sometimes fails at the most inopportune times (part of why I take ‘quant’ style analysis with a grain of salt), but it sure is a factor because it is the undeniable reality of what has happened before.

September Seasonality…

Guest Post by Tom McClellan

September Seasonality Finally Shows Up

DJIA annual seasonal pattern
September 26, 2014

September has a well-deserved reputation for causing the market trouble, and the week after September options expiration is statistically the worst week of the year (per Rob Hanna of www.quantifiableedges.com).  This year, the stock market has been procrastinating about getting that seasonal weakness started, but now that we are in that worst week of the year, the market seems to be working extra hard to make up for lost time.

Continue reading September Seasonality…

NFTRH 216 Out Now

The opening segment from the screenshot goes on to talk more about Jonathan and what he meant to me personally, with respect to a grounded view of the markets.  Then I just felt like writing so that is what I did, with more words and less charts than usual.

FOMC on deck.  Money supply should be kept front and center (and no you hyperinflationists, it is not in an upward hockey stick) as I think it is going to rise in the coming months.  This week is bound to be noisy.

nftrh 216