Tag Archives: Semiconductors

NFTRH 348 Out Now

By Biiwii

A good report, as usual.  That may sound smug but #348 is another report helped me personally because as usual I don’t go into these things so much trying to put what I think down on virtual paper.  I go into them seeking answers or at least, clarity.  Check.

nftrh348

Semi Bullish, Still

By Biiwii

Despite a wobbling stock market, a key leader (the Semiconductor sector) is trying to find support and as such, remains constructive.  Until I get cross referencing evidence (ex. from the Semi Equipment sector’s book-to-bill ratio, technicals, etc.) to the contrary, this is a still bullish sector.  The SOX includes Equipment companies like AMAT, along with the actual chip makers like INTC.

sox

Here is the very nice state (on balance) of my Semi sector holdings.  They are all chip makers (Fab’d and Fabless), but I have interest in the Equipment guys too, again, as long as the b2b remains firm.

simo.mlnx.lscc

US Economy & Semi b2b

By NFTRH

Excerpted from the May 24 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 344:

US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend

A quick review for newer subscribers:  In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry.  After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator.  The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.

b2b

For forward looking purposes we note that it is the bookings, not billings that matter.

The graphic is, as usual, from SEMI.org (w/ my mark ups) as is this quote…

Continue reading US Economy & Semi b2b

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • Would a Gold Standard Brighten Economic Outcomes?  –Big Picture  [biiwii comment: the old argument… the author’s conclusion is laughable as practically applied by today’s CB’s (“a gold standard is not needed to preserve price stability as long as a country’s central bank is independent and has a clear mandate to achieve price stability), but a gold standard for a modern financial and economic system is not the answer; discipline and transparency are the answers in large part imo; esp. discipline, which is lacking world-wide]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • The Fed is heading for another catastrophe  –Stephen Roach @ MarketWatch  [biiwii comment: will said catastrophe arrive any time soon with everyone – incl. biiwii/nftrh – micro managing its progress? valid question]
  • No Santa Claus for Biotechs This Year  –Price Action Lab  [biiwii comment: BTK is one of NFTRH’s momentum leaders and an indicator on the overall market pertaining to the question of whether the market is preparing an upside blow off, correction or bull’s end… BTK is battered but remains unbroken as of this writing, per a now-public NFTRH update from yesterday]
  • [Semiconductor] Manufacturing Constraint Fears Grow  –Semiconductor Engineering  [biiwii comment: NFTRH has tightened up its watch on the Semi equipment industry because this is where the strong economy began and it will be where the first inkling’s of its end will be seen]

 

Around the Web

  • Saving Credit (PDF) by one of my personal heroes, Raghuram Rajan, head of the Reserve Bank of India.
  • Updated Thanksgiving week breakdown from QuantEdges.  Just as one little human in the machine, I have noticed over my years in the market that Black Friday almost always seems to be bullish.

 

Semiconductor Index @ Support

Looking at a couple places where the downside started we note the Russell 2000 trying to be green for a 3rd day in a row and we note the Semiconductor index still holding the key identified support level, which has touch points dating back over a decide.  In other words, it’s mucho significanto.  Adding to the drama, the measurement off the Double Top pattern has been registered, so SOX is a candidate to bounce if it so chooses.

sox

Semi Support?

Here is the monthly chart of the Semiconductor index (SOX), updated.  Still thinking about a bounce in the 540 o 550 range, but I think odds are it is going to the mid 400’s sooner rather than later.

sox