Tag Archives: Semiconductors

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial market news and analysis from around the Web (bright and cheery edition as Nasdaq hits blue sky… take it fwiw)
  • Manufacturing Up, Pollution Down: How?  –Conversable Economist  [biiwii comment: economists being economists, he talks about regulation as the reason. having lived the industry for many years i’d say yes, most definitely. regulations steadily marched stricter and stricter and that is a good thing (i’ve seen companies totally disregard the environment and human health). but don’t discount the degree to which automation has played into this as well.  progress is progress after all.]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • Would a Gold Standard Brighten Economic Outcomes?  –Big Picture  [biiwii comment: the old argument… the author’s conclusion is laughable as practically applied by today’s CB’s (“a gold standard is not needed to preserve price stability as long as a country’s central bank is independent and has a clear mandate to achieve price stability), but a gold standard for a modern financial and economic system is not the answer; discipline and transparency are the answers in large part imo; esp. discipline, which is lacking world-wide]

 

Around the Web

 

Around the Web

  • The Fed is heading for another catastrophe  –Stephen Roach @ MarketWatch  [biiwii comment: will said catastrophe arrive any time soon with everyone – incl. biiwii/nftrh – micro managing its progress? valid question]
  • No Santa Claus for Biotechs This Year  –Price Action Lab  [biiwii comment: BTK is one of NFTRH’s momentum leaders and an indicator on the overall market pertaining to the question of whether the market is preparing an upside blow off, correction or bull’s end… BTK is battered but remains unbroken as of this writing, per a now-public NFTRH update from yesterday]
  • [Semiconductor] Manufacturing Constraint Fears Grow  –Semiconductor Engineering  [biiwii comment: NFTRH has tightened up its watch on the Semi equipment industry because this is where the strong economy began and it will be where the first inkling’s of its end will be seen]

 

Around the Web

  • Saving Credit (PDF) by one of my personal heroes, Raghuram Rajan, head of the Reserve Bank of India.
  • Updated Thanksgiving week breakdown from QuantEdges.  Just as one little human in the machine, I have noticed over my years in the market that Black Friday almost always seems to be bullish.

 

Semiconductor Index @ Support

Looking at a couple places where the downside started we note the Russell 2000 trying to be green for a 3rd day in a row and we note the Semiconductor index still holding the key identified support level, which has touch points dating back over a decide.  In other words, it’s mucho significanto.  Adding to the drama, the measurement off the Double Top pattern has been registered, so SOX is a candidate to bounce if it so chooses.

sox

Semi Support?

Here is the monthly chart of the Semiconductor index (SOX), updated.  Still thinking about a bounce in the 540 o 550 range, but I think odds are it is going to the mid 400’s sooner rather than later.

sox

Semiconductors Monthly

Checking back in on the view of a post-2012 leader, the semiconductors with a monthly chart of the SOX.

sox

We had noted for months that the index was creeping up the top of the Bollinger Band for the first time since before its epic blow off in 1999.  This month it is falling away from the top of the BB with the monthly EMA 10 right there as would-be support.  If it were to drop to the middle of the BB however, that would constitute a test of the long-term breakout.

Semiconductor Sector’s Excitement Continues

Dialing back to January of 2013, I am looking for clues about the coming phase for the economy, mostly as an input into whether or not I can think about turning bullish on gold again (here we remind you again of gold’s best investment case, which is counter not pro cyclical).

The answer, from a contact in the Semiconductor sector (AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, etc.) food chain was that the Semi equipment companies, which we called “canaries on the [economic] coal mine”, were ramping up and thus NFTRH’s view became bullish for the economy, at least short-term.

When this information was combined with the following chart of the Palladium-Gold ratio, which had proven a good economic backdrop indicator, the case for a firm economic phase was even stronger.  Then followed a string of strong ISM data, a stabilizing ‘jobs’ picture and voila, here we are in Bull Party Central with trend followers everywhere looking good and touting to cement their reputations.  But I digress…

pall.gold

Here is the monthly view of PALL-Gold showing that the economy may not be done yet, although the break above resistance (now support) is still very tentative…

Continue reading Semiconductor Sector’s Excitement Continues

Semi Bullish

The semiconductors have led the way.  First in Q1 of 2013, when NFTRH subscribers were alerted that the semiconductor equipment companies were ramping up and then through the big long-term breakout in February of this year, the Semiconductor index has led the way.

In case #1 (the Semi equipment ramp) the implication was for a strengthening economy at a time when everyone thought otherwise.  What happened?  The canary in the coal mine chirped and the economy strengthened despite indignant emails I got to the contrary.  All of this was against a media hysteria about the Fiscal Cliff with even a family member / financial adviser advising that the best and brightest fund managers were in cash (at Thanksgiving, 2012).  Ha ha ha.  “Bullish!” said I to the drop jawed family member.  “Reeeealyyyy???”  Ah yah, really.

Continue reading Semi Bullish