Here is the progress another leader is making toward a well defined target.
On Monday I put up a chart of the junk bond fund HYG, showing an impulsive drop in that garbage with the implication that speculative urges were bleeding out of the market. Then I looked at the same chart later and they had magically fixed it. There never was a decline… April Fools! Seriously, what was up with that?
Well, let’s see if they can paint the SOX.
This chart sucks.
Wanna see a market whose leadership has really thinned out?
The Semi’s are a canary in a coal mine for the broad market. The Semi equipment stocks led the general Semi sector out of Q4. The Canary’s Canary seems to have gone quiet. Meanwhile, nominal SOX has been weak relative to the broad market. With a leading indicator on a leading indicator gone negative maybe we get an early early warning. Or something.
Meanwhile, maybe market bulls steadfastly pumping an ‘organic’ (ha ha ha) economic recovery will buy the dip. Just keep looking at your nominal S&P 500 little bulls.
See? The Dow’s measured target (NFTRH chart) was 14,350. Today we have jobs, jobs, JOBS! And the market is up in pre…
Looking around… TRANNY? On message. RUT 2K? On message. Semi’s? On message.
Speaking of which, I notice that the semi equipment stocks, which we noted here as the canary in the coal mine 1.5 months ago indicating coming economic strength, are diverging from the SOX’s momentum. Could be nothing… could be something. Here’s the big daddy of semi equipment stocks vs. the SOX. AMAT led the way to today’s market cheer fest.
This is the company that happens to be the one that was the subject of some weekend information I received with regard to orders. It’s certainly public information, if you’re able to get it off the street. They apparently ramped orders to their suppliers very recently; as in over the last month. 0 to 60 in 3 seconds.
A question is what is baked in to the stock price and what is not?
I bought it yesterday after the dumpage as an earnings ‘gamble’ in the trading account. The trade seemed well defined to buy at support and sell a failure of support on disappointing earnings, or let it ride a little on positive earnings.
They apparently beat on earnings and are in line on revenues with some fairly conservative guidance. I think they did well, but we’ll see what the market thinks about the trade in a few hours.  +6% booked.