Tag Archives: sentiment

Gold Contrary Indicators

gold.barA ‘White Paper’ article on contrary indicators in the emotion packed gold sector.  Make it them work for, not against you.

The gold sector is peopled by a high concentration of contrary indicators because it is a relatively (to the vast world of equities and bonds) small market that offers refuge from some of the damaging aspects of the spectrum of investment products that are supported by the manipulation of interest rates and printed (and digitally created) money supplies.  Thus, gold has moral high ground if an asset can be thought to have morality.

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A Good Sign in the Precious Metals

I am not going to name names or direct links to the source because I think what goes on in another manager’s shop between himself and his subscribers is their business, not ours.  But I did note that an astute precious metals oriented trading service just had a public talking to with its subscribers, many of whom apparently are really feeling the grind of this consolidation in the precious metals.

That is a good thing because as NFTRH has been noting for a couple weeks now the mounting bearish CoT data and the over bullish sentiment have been bad things… for the short term (with not hardly a peep about them from the ‘community’ I might add).  So seeing a capable trader’s subscriber base getting antsy (or worse) is very positive in that it implies that maybe gold bugs are getting jumpy and feeling the heat, which is what any good correction should do.

The manager does by the way advise that people back off of leverage and/or large position size if the ability to sleep is being compromised.  I for one do not have the psychological makeup to endure significant draw downs on my portfolios, so as advised in NFTRH a few weeks ago, I began the process of trimming positions to be in line with my makeup.

That is good advice for everybody folks.  We are each of us only human and subject to different levels of emotion and discipline.  First rule of trading and investing… know yourself.  Don’t think you know yourself.  Know yourself!

Finally a Good and Bearish Stock Market Headline

1929 Crash Analog?  That was so February 21, 2014.  This morning MarketWatch has a headline that can neuter the bullish effects of the Analog and its brethren that have littered the media at the slightest hint of trouble in the stock market.  This gives me more bearish feelings than any red futures would on any given day.  The market eats those for breakfast.

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Meanwhile, the dumb money is lapping it up again…

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And I continue to love the quiet beauty of this chart…

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Still not a word about it outside of this little corner of the interwebs.  Nice and quiet… ssshhhh…

How [They] Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the [Market]

How I [they] Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb [Market]  paraphrasing Stanley Kubrick’s great cold war/nuclear paranoia film Dr. Strangelove (1964).

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The USA thrived during a 20th century rife with war, famine and depression.  This was a wealthy country however, founded on principles of self-reliance and valuing  thrift, saving and honest work for an honest return.  Add in unparalleled productivity and economically at least, the positives more than outpaced the negatives.

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Historic Optimism in the Stock Market – What Does it Mean?

Guest Post by Elliott Wave International

How do you know when the market is getting ready for a change? This quote from Bob Prechter’s best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, looks at investor psychology at extremes in the markets:

The engine of high stock market valuation is widely shared optimism. The greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the optimism at its peak. Optimism also tends to remain strong in the early stages of a bear market …

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NFTRH 270 Out Now

NFTRH 270 does a good job of defining what is in play for the stock market and going the other way, the precious metals, as we close out a very interesting year.  I am especially intrigued by the possibilities implied by the ‘continuum’ chart (long-term T bond yields) near the end of the report, given the current state of the bond’s yield at a potential limiter in the monthly EMA 100.

If you’d like to take what you read on this site to a much more detailed level, why not try a subscription?  Especially now that a 30 day free trial, with no strings attached, is being offered.  If you are a pure stock trader, please do not bother.  You will likely not be satisfied.  But if you want to be on the right side of infinitely interesting markets going forward, have a look.

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Scary Gold Bug Article, on Cue

With a Sling and a Stone

This is the kind of thing that always gets punished.  When the “community” starts congratulating itself for a job well done, a big hit is sure to follow.  Every time.

“Congratulations to those in the GATA, King World News, and GoldMoney communities who have contended that the pounding done to the monetary metals in recent months was engineered to allow the bullion banks to escape their short positions, to support the Federal Reserve’s repudiation of its plan to reduce its bond buying, and to support money printing by central banks generally. Special recognition in this respect may go to Sprott Asset Management’s Eric Sprott and John Embry, GoldMoney’s James Turk and Alasdair Macleod, market analyst Ted Butler, Andrew Maguire, and Hong Kong fund manager Bill Kaye, among others.

Today’s retreat from “tapering” by the Fed may have exposed the whole U.S. government as a big bluff in regard to the economy.”… and so on and so forth.

An Article About Ma & Pa in the Stock Market

Ma and Pa are heavily long the stock market for the first time since 2008 because after all, it is a great new secular bull market.  See, this chart has broken out and a legion of trend follower bull heroes are touting it.

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S&P 500 big picture chart from NFTRH 251

[edit]  PS:  Currently long AAPL (again), Europe, China, MSFT, NVDA and SIMO, so this is not just a book talking gold bug posting.  These are hedged with 2015 put options against the SPY.  The stock market is at risk and anyone touting the opposite is dealing crank.  Yes, I meant to put an ‘n’ as the next to last letter.  Crack is so over used, isn’t it?