Tag Archives: silver

Gold vs. Silver During Bull Markets

By Steve Saville

Steve Saville on why the price relationship of gold and silver is important as an indicator

This post is a modified excerpt from a recent TSI report.

A popular view is that silver outperforms gold during bull markets for these metals, but that’s only true if the entire bull market is considered. That is, it’s true that silver has in the past achieved a greater percentage gain than gold from bull-market start to bull-market end. However, since the birth of the current monetary system the early stages of gold and silver bull markets have always been characterised by relative WEAKNESS in silver.

Continue reading Gold vs. Silver During Bull Markets

They Broke the Silver Fix, Part 2

By Monetary Metals

More on the silver price fix

Last Thursday, January 28, there was a flash crash on the price chart for silver. Here is a graph of the price action.

Silver Price Fix
The Price of Silver, Jan 28 (All times GMT)

If you read more about it, you will see that there was an irregularity around the silver fix. At the time, the spot price was around $14.40. The fix was set at $13.58. This is a major deviation.

Many silver bugs are up in arms about how unfair the new silver fix is. That’s nothing new. They were up in arms about the old one. The old one was supposedly manipulated.

One thing is for sure, tactical manipulations can occur. A gold trader in London was found to have pushed the price down in the gold fixing by a few pennies. He had sold a multimillion dollar option, and he wanted it to expire worthless to avoid having to pay. Right after the fix, he bought back the gold he sold, pushing the price back up to where it was. He took a loss on the round trip of the gold, of course, but saved millions on the option which he did not have to pay.

Continue reading They Broke the Silver Fix, Part 2

They Broke the Silver Fix

By Monetary Metals

Tactical manipulations can occur in the silver price

Part I

Last Thursday, January 28, there was a flash crash on the price chart for silver. Here is a graph of the price action.

Silver Fix Price
The Price of Silver, Jan 28 (All times GMT)

If you read more about it, you will see that there was an irregularity around the silver fix. At the time, the spot price was around $14.40. The fix was set at $13.58. This is a major deviation.

Continue reading They Broke the Silver Fix

Sign of Silver Turn?

By Monetary Metals

The interplay between gold and silver & their fundamentals

The price of the dollar was down 50mg gold, to 27.8mg, or if you prefer 0.04g silver to 2.18g. Why do we measure the volatile dollar in terms of gold and silver? There’s nothing else to measure it, certainly not the dollar-derivatives called euro, pound, franc, yen, and yuan.

In the common tongue, gold was up $20 and silver rose 25 cents.

More importantly, we want to know what happened to the fundamentals. Read on for the only proper fundamental analysis of the gold and silver markets… [biiwii edit: well Keith, let’s not get carried away; let’s just stick with “sound source of information…” as touted here]

But first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.

The Prices of Gold and Silver
letter jan 31 prices, gold and silver

Continue reading Sign of Silver Turn?

Won’t Get Fooled Again

By Monetary Metals

Keith Weiner looks at gold and silver prices in his unique way

There is a great lyric in Won’t Get Fooled Again by The Who:

Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again

Remember last week, when the price of silver spiked? On Thursday that week, the price was moving sideways around $14. Then around 5am (Arizona time), the price began to rise. Before 11am, it had hit $14.38. And then it was all over. The price went downhill from there, the rest of the day and all day Friday. It closed at $13.93.

The same thing happened this Thursday, with the move beginning at $13.81 at 6am. Before 10, it hit $14.17. As we did the previous week, we tweeted near the top. “Silver run up… fundamental or speculative?” The price slowly slipped the rest of the day, and at 5am on Friday began to drop sharply.

Continue reading Won’t Get Fooled Again

Silver Flash in the Pan

By Monetary Metals

The fundamental price of the gold-silver ratio went up again

No doubt, many people were excited on Thursday to see a spike in the silver price. The big news almost seemed like it would be a spike in the silver price. We were not quite so exuberant, tweeting (follow us on Twitter @Monetary_Metals):

“What happened to silver supply and demand fundamentals this morning?!”

We expected it to be a teaser for today’s Report. However, the silver market took back the entire price move, and more, in about 13 hours. Here is a close-up, showing Thursday morning (Arizona time) through Friday around noon.

The Silver Price Spike

Continue reading Silver Flash in the Pan

Murphy’s Law of Gold Analysis

By Monetary Metals

Fundamental gold and silver analysis…

Perhaps it may be lesser known than his other Laws, but Murphy wrote one for the basis analysis. It goes like this. If we observe that the fundamental price of a metal is far removed from the market price, the two won’t likely converge the next week. On the other hand, suppose we say this (as we did last week):

“The Monetary Metals fundamental price is measuring just that, the fundamentals. As with stocks or any other asset, our centrally banked, government-distorted markets can experience price volatility and even prices that deviate from the fundamentals for a long period of time. Just because we have been calculating a fundamental price for gold that is well over a hundred bucks above the market price, does not mean that the market price has to spike up $100 tomorrow morning. It might—and we certainly would not short gold when the market is in such a state. But as the market has proven since August, it might remain depressed for quite a while.”

Then something is bound to happen the next week.

Continue reading Murphy’s Law of Gold Analysis

Precious Metals: Positive Risk vs. Reward

By Biiwii

As posted at NFTRH.com

Precious Metals: A Positive Big Picture View of Risk vs. Reward

While routinely following the precious metals as one of many sectors in NFTRH, we have mostly left it alone with respect to public writing over the last few years. That is because it is in a bear market and since I am not a slick short-term trader, I have felt it is best to mostly just let it play out to the bear’s will without overly active involvement.

But several indicators have us on alert that 2016 is going to be the year that the bear ends in gold and gold stocks. So why not publicly discuss the shiny rock a bit more in anticipation? I am still 100% in line with the value aspect of a monetary metal that is historically sought after in times of doubt about the Monetary Politburo’s (Central Bankers’) ability to manipulate the global macro backdrop as desired and to positive effect over the long-term.

A bear market exists to clean out the excess from a previous bull market and though some gold bugs have a hard time admitting it to this day, the sector needed to be cleaned out. It was readily obvious in 2011 when first silver and commodities blew off and blew out, and then gold got driven too high, too fast on Euro Crisis fears and masses of monetary refugees did the “Knee Jerk” into the metal that was supposedly going to save them from the evils of Central Banking gone wrong. Ref our warning: To the Newly Minted Gold Bugs

“This article will not discuss the obvious contrarian signals that are implied by the public’s entry into the realm of gold, as the barbarous relic is now ‘channel busting’ up, but shows no signs of waning momentum. We will just warn that at some point, momentum always slows and the market in question, always corrects; at some point. For reference, see silver earlier this year.”

Continue reading Precious Metals: Positive Risk vs. Reward

What Silver Rocket?

By Monetary Metals

Read on for the only true look at the fundamentals of gold and silver

“That [half a dollar of buying] frenzy was not stackers lining up to buy phyz. It was speculators buying paper.

Why does that matter? Speculators, who typically use leverage, can’t hold the market price against the tide of the hoarders. They can push for a while, but they have to close their positions sooner or later, either to take profits (as they reckon them, in dollars) or to stop losses.”

This is what we wrote last week. It turned out to be prescient. This week, the price of silver gave up all of that and more, ending at $13.91. That’s down 63 cents.

Continue reading What Silver Rocket?