Gold and silver CoT data improved for the second week in a row.
It has been 2 years of chop, grind and drop in the gold sector. 2 years since my lousy projection on HUI’s monthly chart failed to do what the Russell 2000 still has a chance to do; measure the ‘Cup’ to an upside target.
At least that is the message this monthly chart of silver wants to convey.
First of all the silver gold ratio is sneaky because it is a ratio and thus, hidden beneath the surface of things. It is also sneaky because all it has done during this June low retest in the precious metals is consolidate… sneakily. It has not broken down and indeed is hanging around the 200 day averages again. They say the more times resistance is tested the weaker it becomes. Also, that’s a pretty MACD to a watchful geek.
A view of the metals by daily chart.
- SLV is above the 50 day averages. Next objective would be to break the trend line. There is some volume creeping in, which is good.
- GLD looks like a bear flag, but we’ll see. A rise above the 50 day averages and trend line would argue otherwise.
- The SLV-GLD ratio (a leading indicator) has popped upward to the trend line.
But the problem is those trend lines. Another problem is that the precious metals may be one happy government resolution away from another drop. We just do not know.
If they are getting the ‘fear’ bid today, they will probably get the ‘relief’ dump if and when these people in Washington decide to end the grandstanding and do what they usually do, choose more debt. At least that is what has happened routinely over the last year when news comes that is perceived by the majority to benefit the economy.
I have laid out some parameters to the upside and downside while trying not to manage you into the ground. If you have any questions, just pop me a mail.
In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the whole detailed NFTRH report each week.
The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s. This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.
We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY), Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI). ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes.
This singular aspect of the new NFTRH represents a clearly defined focus on my most basic management tool and capability, i.e. nominal technical analysis simply portrayed with a clear and concise message that is free of detailed theoretical and opinion content.
In the interest of simplicity there will be little talk of support, resistance, volume and measured objectives in this segment of the service. In short, all we want to know with these charts is ‘are they on bull, bear or neutral signals?’ Very mechanical, very unbiased.
On to our first (complimentary) daily technical report…
GLD is on a bear signal with MACD triggered down, below zero and price below a short term downtrend line and the 50 day moving averages.