- This is the first time in a long while (that I can remember) that the goons have not absolutely pummeled the precious metals after FOMC has baffled us with their bullshit and moved along. Then again, CoT has implied that the right goons have been on the precious metals side lately, especially in silver.
- Certain precious metals sector big picture technicals are becoming very bullish in affirmation of the big bottoming pattern (HUI) that NFTRH had on radar well before it became ‘known’.
- It sure was entertaining watching the ‘new lows coming in July’ brigade scatter and flip a switch to bullish a few days ago. Look at former darlings DUST and JDST now.
- Take a look at silver’s weekly chart.
- Take another look at silver’s weekly chart.
- Take a look at silver vs. gold, it’s over bought.
- Take a look at HUI vs. gold, it’s over bought.
- And both of them are highly constructive toward our longer term bottoming pattern, although over bought is over bought.
- Have balance.
- Have patience.
- Don’t try to make up all your losses (if you didn’t take risk management measures in the bear market) in a day. It’s not gonna happen.
- Things are changing and the dynamics coming into play just might mean more dynamic money making opportunities going forward. Opportunities to alternatively grow and preserve capital. This is what we wait for people.
- Gold is monetary value. Always was. Nothing more. Tune out the pumpers, who will now grow more vocal.
- But the associated speculations… now those can be fun. If/as the bottoming scenario solidifies, it could be an extended phase where speculation works well.
- Did I mention that the sector is getting over bought?
This observation by 0ptionMONSTER fits well with this chart by NFTRH…
“Given that the delta of the options was 0.47, the overall strategy is a directionally neutral play that is looking for a big move up or down and/or for volatility to be higher than that implied by the price of the options.”
Those micro managing the precious metals are fixating on the Symmetrical Triangle (bearish continuation) and a coming ‘Death Cross’ of the MA 50 below the MA 200.
The Sym-Tri has been apparent for about three weeks and the Death Cross is hype put forth by those who would make grand TA statements. The Death Cross means next to nothing. I mean, how much good did the Golden Cross that the “community” was pumping in March end up doing?
Gold is bearish and has been bearish by its technicals (below the 50 and 200 MA’s), and ever since the economic soft patch was was put behind us (cold weather, remember?) by its apparent macro fundamentals as well. NFTRH has been keeping this situation locked down and in a box for future reference. The box will be opened when the time is right.
Meanwhile, I’d suggest that people avoid micro managing gold. It is not an idol or a religion, and while there is a whole industry champing at the bit to begin promoting it again, it is just a tool for retaining the value of money. Sometimes tools sit in the toolbox.
As for silver…
Gold and silver CoT reports showed incremental improvement this week. Still not to extremes we’d want to see, and gold is in no man’s land. I am by no means bullish on the short term technicals in gold, silver or the miners. But I am on the bigger picture bottoming scenario and the CoT data are right in line in that regard. Again, you have to dial way out to historical views to get a sense. So if you are a precious metals player, go do that.
With silver heading to a break down or break out decision in the coming weeks and with its price down hard today, those bullish on silver and looking for buying opportunity could be buying today. It is hard to buy silver now, and that is probably the point.