Tag Archives: silver

Stocks & Precious Metals This Morning

Stock Markets

Well the media always need to have a reason and this morning the reason for the hard down in the stock market is apparently second thoughts by investors on the Fed Minutes and QE tapering (with a side of Portugal/European problems).

What is actually happening is that it was time for a summer disturbance (at best) due to the factors we noted in the NFTRH excerpt on Monday.  At worst the bull market is ending, but the favored plan is for a significant – possibly scary – drop that refuels the bull for one more thrust.

But that preference does not have a lot of conviction behind it.  The only conviction I have right now is that the market is/was due for a July breather and this could be it.

People should have been prepared for this.

Precious Metals

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Who Are Those Guys?

As the silver CoT report data systematically, almost robotically degraded into the September 2012 top (despite the seemingly bullish coming of QE3) NFTRH used to ask week after week “Who are those guys?” doing its best Butch Cassidy while evaluating the gathering short interest.

Below is the CoT graph from NFTRH 203 dated September 9, 2012.  Week after week ‘those guys’ were ganging up on silver and we all know what soon happened; a harsh bear market down leg for the precious metals.

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Gold-Silver Ratio

I had just done an NFTRH update using GDXJ’s 30 min. chart and the darned chart changed right in the middle of the post (funny thing, those short term views) and I decided that it would just put too much noise on anyone not already off on what looks to be a great weekend, weather wise here in the North East at least.  So that is scrapped.

But part of the post also included the Gold-Silver ratio, which is at an extreme over sold condition.  The chart indicates that gold stocks often decline after sharp declines in the GSR.  All within the normal and bullish context of an extended bottoming pattern?  There’s a very good chance that’s the case.  But silver is over baked vs. gold, at least in my opinion.

gsr

Silver’s CCI Script

You will probably be seeing a lot of charts like this all over the internet going forward.  The now obvious breakout in silver is going to get a lot of airplay as players take yesterday as a signal of a coming bullish phase.  I mean, think about the Black Boxes and their ‘if/then’ code.  What might the ‘then’ statement do in response to this week’s ‘if’?

silver

The breakout is not surprising.  NFTRH had been noting for the last many weeks that silver was going to “break out or break down” and that it was going to do it in this general time frame.  Since I am not a Swami I refrain from making guesses, but simply try to dig up as much pertinent information as possible and get it into the analysis. *

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Precious Metals Observations

  1. This is the first time in a long while (that I can remember) that the goons have not absolutely pummeled the precious metals after FOMC has baffled us with their bullshit and moved along.  Then again, CoT has implied that the right goons have been on the precious metals side lately, especially in silver.
  2. Certain precious metals sector big picture technicals are becoming very bullish in affirmation of the big bottoming pattern (HUI) that NFTRH had on radar well before it became ‘known’.
  3. It sure was entertaining watching the ‘new lows coming in July’ brigade scatter and flip a switch to bullish a few days ago.  Look at former darlings DUST and JDST now.
  4. Take a look at silver’s weekly chart.
  5. Take another look at silver’s weekly chart.
  6. Take a look at silver vs. gold, it’s over bought.
  7. Take a look at HUI vs. gold, it’s over bought.
  8. And both of them are highly constructive toward our longer term bottoming pattern, although over bought is over bought.
  9. Have balance.
  10. Have patience.
  11. Don’t try to make up all your losses (if you didn’t take risk management measures in the bear market) in a day.  It’s not gonna happen.
  12. Things are changing and the dynamics coming into play just might mean more dynamic money making opportunities going forward.  Opportunities to alternatively grow and preserve capital.  This is what we wait for people.
  13. Gold is monetary value.  Always was.  Nothing more.  Tune out the pumpers, who will now grow more vocal.
  14. But the associated speculations… now those can be fun.  If/as the bottoming scenario solidifies, it could be an extended phase where speculation works well.
  15. Did I mention that the sector is getting over bought?