In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the whole detailed NFTRH report each week.
The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s. This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.
We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY), Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI). ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes.
This singular aspect of the new NFTRH represents a clearly defined focus on my most basic management tool and capability, i.e. nominal technical analysis simply portrayed with a clear and concise message that is free of detailed theoretical and opinion content.
In the interest of simplicity there will be little talk of support, resistance, volume and measured objectives in this segment of the service. In short, all we want to know with these charts is ‘are they on bull, bear or neutral signals?’ Very mechanical, very unbiased.
On to our first (complimentary) daily technical report…
GLD is on a bear signal with MACD triggered down, below zero and price below a short term downtrend line and the 50 day moving averages.
Gold and silver CoT is out for anyone left alive who still cares. They improved again as of Tuesday. Graphs follow…
Here is what the US Fed did to the currency it is supposedly a steward of yesterday. The USD plunged below an important support level. If this breakdown holds below 80.50, it measures to the mid-70′s. Enter an ‘inflation trade’, in which we’d look to fan out from the precious metals and include other commodity and global stock items.
The Commitments of Traders data show Speculators did some regurgitating and Commercials did some net buying. Open interest declined from already depressed levels. Data after the break…
The preferred support for gold is 1350. This morning gold is $10 an ounce below that level.
It can be annoying to watch the precious metals sector suck in the momo’s and flush them right back out again, as was the case with Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton on the war hype reversal day. You want to try to be a sensible investor but when the froth gets too thick you’ve just got to take profits and/or get defensive.
Leading up to that key reversal day (yellow ovals) people couldn’t wait to get in and buy the hype. And now, the inevitable reverse momo to the downside.
I try to tune out people telling me why the precious metals are bullish if they do not include real macro fundamental analysis to support their claims. Charts are just charts; road maps. By macro analysis I don’t mean Indian wedding season, China demand and of course I don’t mean Syria war hype.
Absent the macro making sense, that is just empty cheer leading. But if the macro makes sense, what is happening now will be a great buying opportunity. So I’m gonna do the work in preparation. You should too.
 And right on cue here comes MarketWatch with the punch [head] line…
Gold ends down 1.6% as Syria fears recede
Ha ha ha…
Well yes, if it’s Tuesday it must be a smash down in gold and silver. It’s CoT data day and all.
Look, silver was way over bought. Part of that over bought condition came on the Syria attack hype, after which the metals quickly reversed. Now we have markets up supposedly on Syria relief. It’s idiotic, but not nearly as idiotic as this stupid crisis hedge thing that gold gets painted with every damned time. What that means is two things that I can see…
- A bunch of idiots buy gold on the knee jerk and
- A bunch of well placed market operators use this top heaviness to give the metals a nice little shove.
Anyone who bought gold because of anything going on in some dysfunctional country gassing its people deserves to lose their money. Once again folks, we are at a point where the precious metals sector needs to get cleaned out of an unhealthy ‘investor’ sponsorship.
The signs were all there, ever since the big reversal day a couple weeks ago on Syria b/s.